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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Back on track in 2023
CHINA · Report · 30 Jan 2023

GDP grew 3% in 2022. Specifically, China’s economy rose by 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3. Many negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring, the pandemic management policies ...

Concern regarding the judicial reform rattles the markets
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Jan 2023

1. Growing concern regarding the proposed judicial reforms has supported a selloff of Israeli financial assets, including equities, bonds and FX. 2. Recent economic indicators point to slowing growth, including weaker private consumption. 3. Despite slowing growth, a weaker shekel will ...

Concern regarding the judicial reform rattle the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Jan 2023

Financial markets in Israel have sold off recently Concern regarding capital outflows have resulted in a weaker shekel, lower equity prices and higher bond yields. This follows growing international (as well as domestic) concern regarding the proposed judicial reform which would strengthen politi...

ToS racing to the finish line
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

The main opposition alliance, Table of Six, now renamed the Nation Alliance (once again) made further progress towards becoming a true coalition in the leaders’ 26 January summit, while batting away some of the criticisms hurled at it. Party sources claim a joint presidential candidate will be...

S&P downgraded Hungary to BBB-, with Stable outlook, on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2023

S&P had been holding Hungary on BBB/Negative since August 2022. The explanation of its downgrade, announced on January 27, included: (1) sharp monetary tightening, forced by sustained high inflation, forint volatility and external pressure; (2) high energy prices, uncertain economic prospects and...

Who stole Usain Bolt's money?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Jan 2023

For over two weeks in Jamaica, there has been only one news story, as both the elites and the man on the street were shocked that global sprinting superstar Usain Bolt now had only US$12,000 in his retirement fund. Bolt, the closest thing Jamaica has had to a national icon since Bob Marley, advis...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s cabinet resigns, S&P stabilizes Sharjah, Qatar-Bahrain phone call
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar-Bahrain reconciliation gained pace as the Amir and Crown Prince spoke by phone. * Saudi Arabia’s 2023 borrowing plan implies it only needs to raise $1bn more this year. * S&P lifted Sharjah’s outlook to stable, and ...

Getting used to the new normal
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations, President Gustavo Petro is managing his politics quite well -- and for some that creates disconcert and awe. Constant criticism of him falls mostly on deaf ears. This is the historical moment for Petro's ideas and leadership, and ordinary people want to know if they were...

Webinar replay: Venezuela in 2023: What to expect?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jan 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses Venezuela's macro outlook and the prospects for growth in 2023. How will politics affect economic recovery? With the dire situation of Venezuela's oil industry and the limited scope of Chevron's ...

Lula will meet with governors today, Congress and the Judiciary resume activities next week, and the Central Bank will meet to decide on the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2023

In the meeting with Lula, governors should discuss federal compensation for revenue losses caused by the change in the ICMS collection rules – especially on fuel – and the borrowing capacity of the states. Congress and the Judiciary will resume their activities next week. Also next week, the Cent...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Jan 2023

Jan 6 The Civil Aviation Committee: Kazakhstan has extended the "open skies" regime for foreign airlines until 2028 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have agreed on the conditions for the construction of the Kambarata HPP-1 with a capacity of 1860 MW will generate 5 bln kW-H...

Russia increasing military manufacturing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2023

On January 26 the head of Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, said that it was speeding up the production of ammunition because of the Ukraine War. He denied that Russia was running short of munitions. He claimed that Rostec had multiplied production due to the Defense Min...

Georgia benefits from Russian immigration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

In 2022 Georgia's banks received over USD 2 billion in transfers from Russia. Over 112,000 Russians moved to the country. Most were men aged 18-35. But some were older men, women and children. The influx of Russians has boosted the economy 10%. Some of the immigrants are anti-war liberals. But th...

A marked deceleration in policy normalization by the South African Reserve Bank at the start of 2023
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Jan 2023

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2023 meeting and announced its interest rate decision today. And in line with market expectations, the Reserve Bank once more hiked the repo rate but slowed the pace of increase to 25 basis points. This w...

7.2% 4Q GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

The economy grew much faster than we had expected in 4Q with the 7.2% year-on-year (yoy) growth rate reflecting a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter growth clip. Features of 4Q growth include: Still robust consumer spending which grew 7%, slowing down from the previous quarter’s 8% growth. Despite rising in...

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