GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We comment on the key recent macro events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: 2023 posts 8.7 percent GDP growth Armenia: 2023 foreign trade deficit widens Armenia: REER inches down in Dec, but still runs in overvaluation mode Armenia: CB publishes minutes from Jan 30th rates meeting ...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF to hike capital deployment, Alat’s first deals, Turkey-ADQ sukuk on hold, Qatar’s Gaza mediation resumes

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states addressed the ICJ hearing on Israel’s occupation (requested by the UNGA in 2022). * Hostage release talks mediated by Qatar/US/Egypt are resuming in Paris today. * Inflation in January was higher in Kuwait (3....

Lula met with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, Lira should meet with party leaders next week to discuss the presidencies of the House committees, and the 2023 GDP result will be published next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2024

Yesterday, President Lula met with the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and representatives of 12 parties. The objective of the meeting was to improve dialogue between the Executive and Legislative branches. Next week, a meeting is scheduled between Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and party leade...

Lithuania restricts train travel to and from Russian exclave

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2024

On February 22 the announcement was made that trains going from Russia through Lithuania to the Russian exclave Kaliningrad will not be allowed to pick up or drop off passengers. The rule will take effect from March 1. Lithuania is also closing two border crossings with Belarus. It closed another...

Haddad will look into the Perse program, Lula will meet with party leaders of the House to improve their relationship, and Flavio Dino takes office as a justice of the STF

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said he will look closely into Perse, a program that funds the events sector. Fraud was identified in the program, whose expenses exceeded R$17 billion. This evening, President Lula will meet with the party leaders of the House and the president of the Ho...

Domestic politics suddenly come into motion

HUNGARY · Report · 21 Feb 2024

We have mostly good news on the energy situation. January, the outstanding peak of the heating season, was once again warmer than average, although not quite as warm as one year earlier. Domestic gas reserves are almost at their historic maximum for this time of the year, and European gas prices ...

Russia and Venezuela agree to enhance collaboration on hydrocarbons

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2024

On February 20 the foreign ministers of the two countries met in Caracas and made the agreement that included a statement about working together on civilian nuclear energy, farming and medicine. This is Sergei Lavrov's second visit to Venezuela since the Ukraine War began. The Russian Foreign Min...

Lula will meet with Haddad to discuss the payroll tax, several civil servants are calling for salary raises, and President Lula's statements about Israel continue to weigh negatively on the government

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Feb 2024

President Lula meets with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, to discuss reimbursing the payroll tax. The matter will be addressed through a bill with constitutional urgent status. Some civil servant groups are mobilizing for salary raises. The work-to-rule job action of federal agricultura...

Government leaders will meet to discuss the payroll tax exemption, party leaders will meet to discuss the parliamentary funds veto, and the STF has maintained the date of Bolsonaro’s deposition

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Yesterday, the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, said that the payroll tax relief issue would be resolved by the end of this week. He said that a solution only depended on President Lula's approval. Party leaders who are part of the Joint Budget Committee will meet to dis...

Economics: Reform proposals will not pass in the current Congress but form the key piece of a longer-term political plan by AMLO

MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

As analyzed in last week's Political Outlook, on February 5 President López Obrador unveiled a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reform proposals, ostensibly with the intention of having them discussed and approved in Congress. But as there is no possibility of these initiatives being pa...

Post-election scenarios, a first take

TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...

Dancing on the edge of an abyss

UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

The Signs of Economic Activity and Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2024

For inflation to converge to the target, it is necessary for economic activity to decelerate sufficiently for inflation expectations to equal the target. Although after the strong result observed in November (mainly due to Black Friday promotions), real retail sales cooled, our models indicate th...

Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown

MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...