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Boluarte’s struggle for legitimacy; protests in the south hit the economy
PERU · Report · 17 Jan 2023

In this report, we focus on the repercussions of the recent public protests for the political landscape and the economy. We start by asking ourselves how new President Dina Boluarte can gain legitimacy in order to remain in power. While we argue that the government has all the resources necessary...

Politics: AMLO begins the year with a major setback as the presidential succession heats up
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jan 2023

2023 is shaping up to be an especially crucial year for President López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (4T) project, and he suffered a major, totally unexpected setback just as the year was getting underway. His preferred candidate to become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court January 2 saw her c...

It’s all about oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Inflation slowed in 2022 for the fourth consecutive year, though by far less than the government had hoped. Inflation exceeded the government’s double-digit annual inflation target last August. Still, the year closed with an estimated inflation of 251 percent, which is far less than the 681 perce...

Current account narrows in 4Q22 but still remains very strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2023

According to the CBR preliminary estimate, Russia’s current account reached $227.4bn in 2022. In 4Q22, it narrowed to $31.4bn from $48.0bn in 3Q22 and a record high of $78.5bn in 2Q22. The trade surplus reached $282.3bn in 2022 and also narrowed in 4Q22 (to $45.9bn, i.e., roughly one-half of its ...

President Lula meets with ministers to discuss the minimum wage, Minister Haddad to have meetings during the World Economic Forum in Davos, and Minister Silveira meets with representatives of the energy sector to discuss attacks on transmission towers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

After the meeting with ministers, President Lula will have a meeting with the president of the Single Center of the Workers (CUT). The agenda should focus on the minimum wage. During the electoral campaign, Lula promised to implement a policy of increasing the minimum wage according to the intere...

The First Package: “Much Ado About Nothing”.
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Last week, measures were announced aiming to reduce the primary deficit in 2023 (summarized in Table 1). The largest part of the adjustment falls on the revenue side, based on revenues’ reestimation and increase, along with some temporary spending cuts. However, given the nature of Brazil’s fisca...

Economics: Internal demand, external conditions foreshadow a weaker economy in 2023
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jan 2023

When it turned out late last year that Mexico’s GDP had accelerated in the third quarter of 2022 more than expected by either market analysts or government authorities, it prompted analysts, including those of us at GEA, to announce upward revisions to 2022 year-end GDP estimates. As we begin th...

Sharp slowdown and inflation rebound greet a gloomy and uncertain 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Jan 2023

November 2022 confirmed the trend of a sharp slowdown in economic activity that began in September, while December brought the surprise of a strong rebound in monthly inflation. The y/y rise of the Monthly Economic Activity Index in November 2022 was 2.9%, with an average monthly fall of 0.95 ppt...

Lula capitalizes on the attacks and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, participates in the Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Jean Paul Prates may take charge of Petrobras. The Minister of Transportation, Renan Filho, announces a plan of action for the first 100 days of government that involves the resumption of all paral...

Signs of inflation moderation, except for rental prices
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jan 2023

1. Inflation in December surprised slightly on the downside (up 0.3% m/m and 5.3% y/y), with core inflation softening to 5% from 5.3%. 2. Except for rental prices, which continue to accelerate, non-housing service prices and goods are decelerating. 3. Due to recent government measures to re...

Kazakhstan’s economy grew steadily in December prompting a good start for 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2023

The country’s economy was on the rise at the very end of 2022 as the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes six sectors that cover over 60% of the national economy) grew by 3.5% in 2022. In December alone, it grew e...

Signs of inflation moderation, except for rental prices
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2023

December’s CPI surprised slightly on the downside Inflation in December reached 0.3% (below expectations for 0.4%) and 5.3% y/y (similar to rate last month). Core inflation moderated to 5.0% y/y from 5.3%. Housing rental prices (OER) accelerated to 6.3% y/y from 5.9% while other service prices mo...

UK to supply Ukraine with tanks for the first time
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2023

On January 14 the British Prime Minister made the announcement about Challenger 2 tanks. The rumor in the media is that 12 tanks will be sent. The UK is retiring 79 Challenger 2 tanks over the next few years. So it is possible that more such tanks will be sent. France recently Infantry Fighting V...

Turbulent politics, fuzzy economics
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Turkey’s order for new F-16 jet fighters and upgrade kits are in jeopardy, as Senator Bob Menendez threatens to block them. Assad laid out two conditions for peace with Ankara, to which Erdogan shall not be able to oblige. This deprives him of a minor propaganda asset. Erdogan and Bahceli have...

Russian newspaper says Putin will seek re-election in 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2023

On January 13 Kommersant newspaper published an article saying that Putin's campaign is being prepared for March 2024. Kommersant cited anonymous sources. The newspaper claimed that Putin has already been discussing his campaign with his aides. There had been some speculation that if Russia won t...

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