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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation steadily moderates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023

Rosstat reported that inflation in December reached 0.78% m-o-m, which is quite a low level given that the authorities moved the indexation of regulated tariffs from the summer months to December. Fruit and vegetable prices were the main drivers of the CPI in December. Inflation in 2022 as a whol...

National Fund remains a comfortable cushion for the budget
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that The National Fund grew to KZT28.6 trillion as of January 1, 2023 (from KZT28.0 trillion as of January 1, 2022) but contracted in dollar terms (to $62.1 bn as of January 1, 2023, from around $64.4 bn as of a year ago). This contraction (by $2.3 bn) re...

GULF WEEKLY: $10bn Saudi bond, Kuwait political turmoil, Shell invests in Omani hydrogen, Gulf bailout for Egypt and Pakistan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE pledged a $1bn loan to Pakistan and extended an existing $2bn. * Saudi Arabia added $1bn in oil financing and is considering an extra $2bn loan and an extra $9bn investment. * Gulf states are expected to roll ove...

The Minister of Finance announced economic and fiscal measures for the year, the PF found a draft decree in Anderson Torres’s home suggesting a planned coup d’etat, and the government is considering increasing the minimum wage above the rate of inflation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2023

Minister Fernando Haddad disclosed what would be the main measures of the new government to avoid the R$ 231.5 billion shortfall foreseen in the approved budget for 2023. He expects the deficit to come in somewhere between R$ 90 billion and R$ $100 billion. A large part of the plan's measures wil...

Positive surprise on inflation in December, with a small footnote on methodology
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023 · 1 response

December figures on CPI-inflation, reported this morning, look just beautiful. They are 1.9% mom, 24.5% yoy, the year-on-year number up from 22.5% in November. But the median analyst expectation in Portfolio.hu's survey was 25.8%, and MNB's Q4 inflation report expected 24.8-27.1%. The latter was ...

Cost of living reduction plan released
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2023

A new program to reduce the cost-of-living was presented yesterday by the PM and Minister of Finance. This will include reducing the increase in electricity price to 2.5% (originally 8.2%), the water price by 1% (instead of 3.5%) and reducing the price on petrol by 1.3% (by reducing the excise ta...

Contradictory Russian claims on the Battle of Soledar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

On January 11 the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group said that it had taken Soledar. Evgeny Prigozhin emphasized how tough the battle had been and also praised the Ukrainians for ''honorably and bravely defending the territory''. He also said the claim that Ukrainians are deserting is fal...

Lula’s federal intervention decree was approved in the Senate, Justice Moraes ordered the arrest of Anderson Torres and Colonel Fábio Vieira, and acts of vandalism are still being reported across the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2023

The Federal Senate approved the federal intervention decree on the public security of the Federal District (DF). The vast majority of senators voted in favor of the intervention, except for eight senators linked to former President Jair Bolsonaro, including his son Flávio Bolsonaro. The Justice ...

Friend to all enemy to none
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

Ever since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. came into office in July last year, his foreign affairs team has been busily working at re-centering Philippine foreign policy after the extreme pro-US then pro-China stances of the previous two administrations. In his words, President Marcos defined his foreign p...

Armenia declines to host CSTO military drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2023

On January 10 Armenia announced that it will not host the military drills of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The CSTO includes Russia and 5 other nations. Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia publicly criticized Russia for not being more helpful to Armenia while Azerbaijani dem...

Stabilization and growth can only materialize with a new government
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Jan 2023

During the last four months of 2022 the economy performed in line with the “optimistic” scenario of our forecast from August 23, 2022. There are no reasons to introduce changes to our forecast for 2023. However, to forecast the economy in 2024 it is necessary to discuss the political and institut...

Lula’s federal intervention decree was approved in the House, he met with leaders of the other branches of government to issue a statement in defense of democracy, and democratic representatives call for Jair Bolsonaro’s extradition from the US to Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2023

Last night, the House approved the federal intervention decree issued by President Lula for the public safety of the Federal District (DF). Today, the decree will be put to a vote in the Senate. According to the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Flávio Dino, approximately 1,500 people were...

The ANC offers more promises during its 111th annual anniversary celebrations
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2023

Following his victory at the African National Congress (ANC) at the December 2022 Elective Conference that secured him a second term as the party’s leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the ANC’s January 8th Statement. The annual delivery of the Party’s plans for both the organization itsel...

China’s abrupt U-turns
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2023

China has done an about-face on a number of issues that signal a sudden realization that the economy continues to slow and the country’s policies are not working. China has reversed course on domestic Covid control, the property market and its former frosty approach to diplomacy; we even witnesse...

Genuine bad news on industry and merchandise trade in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, on sda basis, in November, following a 3.6% mom decrease in the previous month. This pulled the yoy expansion down to 0.7% in November, from 4.8% in October and 8.3% in Q3.  November numbers are preliminary, meaning a revision in the final data is unlikely but ...

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