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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An encouraging print in a long journey
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices increased by 3.3%, m/m, in November, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%-3.8.%. Twelve-month CPI-inflation nevertheless edged up to 62%, or to its highest level since the beginning of the year, up from 61.4% a month ago. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.8%, with the 12-month...

The rapporteur of the ICMS MP is expected to submit his report this week, the STF should adjudicate the ADI on the State-Owned Companies Law, and President Lula will participate in the Mercosur Summit on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2023

The rapporteur of the provisional measure (MP) on the ICMS subsidy, Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), may submit his report this week. According to the schedule, the presentation to the Joint Committee is set for December 6, and the vote is scheduled for the following day. On Wednesday, December 6, t...

Politics: Latest effort to stack the Supreme Court falls short, but AMLO and Sheinbaum prepare Plans C and D
MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2023

There is no reason to believe that President López Obrador is going to abandon his longstanding campaign to bring the Judicial Branch under his control and, barring that, to hamstring it and starve it of funding. The latest effort in that latter regard is his administration’s attempt to dissolve ...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone easing
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Dec 2023

1. The coalition is finding it difficult to reduce civilian expenditure (coalition agreements, especially), as it approved additional spending for the war. 2. A dent in fiscal credibility in 2024 could result in a weaker shekel and postpone monetary easing. 3. Private consumption declined s...

Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2023

Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish ...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Dec 2023

Geopolitics: Following the return 116 hostages, negotiations broke down in receiving the remaining 136 hostages. Israel renewed its offensive and Hamas fired missiles into Israel. Hezbollah fired as well and Israel retaliated. It is not clear whether this renewed pressure will result in the resum...

Russia expanding military 15%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

On December 1 Putin signed a presidential decree about this saying the expansion was needed due to the threat from Ukraine and NATO's ''aggressive activity'' seeking more members. The decree says there shall be no amendments to the draft system. There was a huge draft in 2022 of men who had alrea...

Self-rated poor families, a rising trend?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

While the Philippines surpassed the dismal 2nd quarter 4.3% GDP growth with a 5.9% performance in the 3rdquarter, the results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from September 28-October 1, 2023 suggest the fruits of economic growth may not be spreading around evenly. Se...

GDP grew 8.8% up to June. Our forecasts remain positive but lower for 2023. 2024 will be a quasi-stagnant economy after the closing of the mining operation
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023 · 2 responses

The GDP growth rate until June reached 8.8%. For now, without knowing the complete GDP data, which has not been published by the statistical institute, we maintain our annual forecast at 5.5% due to a deceleration in the third quarter and disruptions in agricultural production, tourism, and the C...

Kazakhstan macro: Solving the budgetary puzzle
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 01 Dec 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published a complete set of budgetary statistics for 10M23, which included the republican budget, combined budgets of the regions, the National Fund, and the consolidated budget. The republican budget is the cornerstone of the country’s public finances not only du...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, Gaza ceasefire ends, Bahrain loses positive outlook, UAE launches $30bn climate fund
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The market was underwhelmed by extended OPEC+ cuts. * Saudi production in Q1 will be flat, UAE will rise by 1% and Kuwait and Oman will fall by -5%. * The Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza ended today after a week, with Is...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2023

* The war in Ukraine has slowed to a near stalemate. * Western arms shipments to Ukraine are decreasing. * Western leaders visit Kyiv but show little progress on EU accession. * Kazakhstan hosted the presidents of France and Russia.

Next week the Senate will discuss the appointments to the CADE, and the STF should review the case regarding the State-Owned Companies Law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2023

Next week will likely be busy in Brasília, even though the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), are attending the Climate Conference of Nations Nations (COP28), in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. In the Senate, the Economic Aff...

2024 Caucasus/Central Asia Outlook: Less growth, less risk
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 01 Dec 2023

We anticipate 2024 will bring, unsurprisingly, lower, if still robust, growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Yet, more surprisingly, along with lower growth, we also foresee less risk. Economic growth in the region has been steadily diminishing from the peak of 11.6 percent YoY in 2Q21 to 5...

Two short stories: EU funds and detailed GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2023

1. Free Europe and Népszava (an opposition daily newspaper in Hungary) have reported in unison, referring to unnamed sources in Brussels, that the EU Commission is now expected to unfreeze the €10.5bn worth of 2021-2027 cohesion funds which are currently blocked only by their requirements regardi...

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