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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jan 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Jan 20
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Central America databank Jan 29
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Chile databank Jan 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Feb 4
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Dominican Republic databank Jan 27
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Feb 6
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Hungary databank Jan 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jan 15
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Jan 30
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Philippines databank Feb 6
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Poland databank Feb 4
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Russia Economics databank Jan 16
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South Africa databank Feb 6
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Feb 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PERU IN 2026: POLITICAL RISKS, ELECTIONS, AND ECONOM...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A widening fiscal deficit amid the conflict will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Nov 2023
1. The shekel appreciated sharply last week as a result of both strong equity markets abroad and growing expectations that the war will be limited to Gaza. 2. Credit card purchases continue to expand modestly, but private consumption remains far below pre-war levels. 3. We expect a fiscal d...
A widening fiscal deficit will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023
Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Hamas. There is much fog regarding the war, Israel has encircled Gaza city, a major Hamas stronghold including underground tunnels. International pressure for a cease-fire is mounting as civil...
Our election coverage kicks off
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2023
In a development that may improve CHP’s chances of keeping big-city municipalities in the March 2024 local elections, delegates threw out incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu to crown “change” candidate Ozgur Ozel. The politics author thus initiates his local election coverage, tentatively concluding ...
Kazakhstan bans fuel exports to Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023
On October 20 Kazakhstan made the move saying it needs fuel for itself. The bank covers liquefied petroleum gas, propane and butane. The ban is to last until 2026. A fuel price hike in Kazakhstan in January 2022 caused massive protests and riots that left over 200 dead. Therefore the government i...
US sanctions on countries accused of supplying Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
On November 3 the US said it was sanctioning individuals and entities whom it believes are enabling Russia to prosecute its war in Ukraine. The people and entities are from the United Arab Emirates, China and Turkey. Russia is sourcing technology and equipment for its armed forces from abroad. Ru...
EU Commission's evaluation of Hungary's judicial reform is delayed further by new questions
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
Following a letter with questions sent out on September 26, which the government answered on October 19, the EU Commission sent another letter with new questions regarding 'certain elements' of Hungary's judicial reforms on November 1, a Commission spokesman told the Hungarian press the other day...
Kazakhstan hosts Turkic Summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
On November 3 the members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) met in Astana. It marked the 10th anniversary of the OTS. The presidents of its members attended. The Kazakh president stated the 8 pillars for his chairmanship of the OTS in 2024. He seeks deeper cooperation. There is talk of ...
Senior Ukrainian general says war is a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
On November 1 Valery Zaluzhny said in an article in The Economist that neither side can make a breakthrough unless they get new technology. He tacitly admitted that the counter-offensive had failed. Zaluzhny is asking for long term aid. He says a war of attrition favors Russia, which outnumbers U...
No one falls from grace halfway
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023
In Latin American national elections today, the opposition has an 80% chance of winning, according to a recent statistical analysis. After the 2015 commodities crisis, and especially after the COVID pandemic, opposition parties won almost four of every five elections in the region. We are seeing ...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil growth slowed in Q3, UAE non-oil growth strong in Q2, Bahrain reconsiders relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is the sole bidder for World Cup
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Russian and Iranian oil production/exports rose in October. * The ground phase of the Gaza war began, and concerns grew about civilian casualties and displacement. * Qatar mediated to enable foreign nationals to leave Gaz...
Headline better than expected, thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2023
Consumer prices rose by a slower than expected 3.4%, m/m, in October, compared with (including ours) forecasts of around 4%, with our forecast error largely stemming from lower food inflation. Annual CPI-inflation has thus remained broadly unchanged from a month ago, standing at 61.4%, slightly l...
The goal is to vote on Tax Reform in the Senate by the end of November, the payroll tax bill will be sent to Lula for approval, and the STF may resume analysis of the FGTS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2023
In the Senate, the focus is on Tax Reform. In a meeting with the Ministry of Finance, the rapporteur, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), said that he is making small changes to his text. Although there may be a delay in this schedule, the vote is expected to be completed in the Senate in November. T...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia likely to get a conditional Yes (or a conditional No) in its bid to earn EU candidate status
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023
Georgia is anxiously waiting for European Commission’s final report on the fulfillment of the 12 recommendations needed to earn the much-coveted status of an official EU candidate country. In this short note we review the background of Georgia’s journey to applying for the status and argue that t...
Slowing growth as the South African economy labors under local and global headwinds
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2023
• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was 0.9% higher in H1-2023 than it was during the corresponding period in 2022. The muted GDP growth rates recorded during both the first and second quarters of 2023 indicate the South African economy is struggling under the strain...
Kazakhstan macro: Too-strong tenge still hindering budget revenue growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Nov 2023
On October 30, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 9M23, and the publication appeared later than usual. One cannot rule out that this delay was caused by internal discussions about the feasibility of the amended 2023 budget plan, as well as the 2024 budget. Tax...