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CPI-inflation in November: would no negative surprise be a surprise now?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

Monthly CPI-inflation data have kept surprising analysts on the negative side lately. And so it happened in November as well. The yoy headline rate rose to 22.5% from the 21.1% reported in October, whereas analysts expected only 22%. Once again, the main driver was food, where prices rose by an a...

Tax revenues decline in November but fiscal surplus maintained YTD
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

November’s fiscal deficit was 1.2bn ILS (compared to 0.5bn in Nov 21), and the fiscal surplus reached 0.4% GDP in the last 12 months. Since the beginning of the year the fiscal surplus reached 28.9bn ILS. Tax revenues are up 14.8% y/y in Jan-Nov while non-Covid expenditure rose a modest 5.6%. Reg...

SAUDI ARABIA: Budget assumes oil around $75 and shows spending discipline in some key areas
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

The budget was released this evening (MoF), which largely reflects the headline figures from the pre-budget statement and anticipates a surplus of 0.4% of GDP, down from the estimated 2.6% this year. We will include more analysis in the weekly report on Friday and all the data will be added to th...

Secret opinion poll shows Russians support the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Polls in Russian run by the Levada Center and the state run VTsIOM show that around 75% of people are pro-war. Putin is keen to know the state of public opinion. Crafting it through media control is his obsession. On December 6 the Moscow Times claimed to have gained a copy of unpublished statist...

Peru: Castillo is ousted
PERU · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022 · 2 responses

A few minutes ago Congress voted former president Castillo impeachment and was approved by 101 votes, more than the two-thirds needed (87 votes). This followed Mr. Castillo decision a few minutes before mid-day to shut down Congress, restrict rights, impose curfew from 10pm to 4am, and called a C...

The National Fund grew in 11M22 despite increased transfers to the budget
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that the National Fund grew in 11M22 to around KZT28.6 trillion ($60.8 bn) from KZT28.0 trillion as of January 1. In dollar terms, the National Fund decreased, as it stayed close to $64.4 bn at the beginning of the year. As the tenge weakened from around ...

Inflation jumps in the first days of December due to the rise of regulated tariffs
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on December 5, inflation w-o-w jumped to 0.58%, an unprecedented level after months of deflation in the summer and slow inflation in October. It is not yet clear what the final inflation print in November will be (to be published on December 9). Though g...

The CCJ approved the report on the Transition PEC, the Senate should vote on the proposal today, and the STF may adjudicate the cases on the rapporteur’s amendments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2022

Senator Alexandre Silveira's (PSD-MG) report on the Transition PEC increases the spending ceiling by R$ 145 billion for two years to pay for the Bolsa Família program and removes up to 6.5% of extraordinary revenues from the ceiling. The elected government is hoping to complete the vote in two ro...

The politics of Covid in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Dec 2022

China’s current management of Covid measures points to a leadership vacuum, narrow thinking, and general bad management. More broadly, as the country’s medical and economic problems mount, the shortcomings of the Xi Jinping regime’s political management style are going to become more apparent, wi...

Santa Claus brought higher fuel prices to households this year
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

In Hungary (and much of Central Europe), it is Little Jesus who takes responsibility for Christmas gifts to children. Santa Claus has a separate day, which is December 6, to deliver his presents. This year, Santa had a special gift for local families. Last night, a press conference was held at 22...

Putin discusses security with team due to renewed attacks on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

On December 6 Putin discussed the issue with his Security Council at the Kremlin. More drone attacks hit Russia on December 6, this time in the Kursk Region. This came a day after two attacks deep inside Russia. Putin's spokesman assured the public that the government was doing what was needed to...

After being sentenced, CFK announces that she will not run in 2023
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 06 Dec 2022

Today, the judges of the second federal oral court, found Cristina Fernández de Kirchner guilty of fraudulent administration in determent of the State. After three years of public trials, she received a 6-year prison sentence, in addition to a perpetual disqualification to exercise public office ...

If FDI can’t sub for oil, we’ll need to live on remittances instead
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2022 · 1 response

GDP growth posted a strong 7% result in Q3. Yet across most sectors (except for oil & mining and construction), growth keeps losing momentum. Manufacturing and commerce are losing steam. Public administration spending plunged, which does not help growth but might be good news for fiscal results. ...

South Africa’s economic growth rebounds at 1.6% in Q3 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Dec 2022 · 1 response

As expected, the South African economy rebounded from the second quarter’s contraction of -0.7% q/q to record a growth rate of 1.6% q/q during the third quarter of 2022. However, the rate of growth surprised on the upside. The expansion in the country’s real GDP came on the back of a recovery in ...

Hungary vetoed EU borrowing for Ukraine, no decision on Hungarian matters today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2022

The following screenshot, from a Twitter post by a Green Party member of the European Parliament, one of the leading critics of Hungary's Fidesz government there, shows finance minister Varga who, by saying what he is quoted here to have said, essentially vetoed the EU's common borrowing action f...

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