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With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.

Spending plan 2024 approved with 20.6% GDP deficit

UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 9th, the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2024 spending plan, which saw only modest changes from the initial budget proposed in September. The central budget's revenues are set at UAH 1.77 trillion, with expenditures at UAH 3.36 trillion, leading to a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6%...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - What's Next

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US's easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, get insight into what's ahead for the country with the slide presentation from our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy, "Venezuela: What's Next".

Surprise, surprise: CPI-inflation down to a single-digit level already in October

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

The October figures for the headline inflation rate were -0.1% mom, 9.9% yoy, the latter falling from 12.2% yoy in September. This surprised analysts, who had a median expectation of 10.3% yoy, our own forecast figure being 10.2% yoy. Crucially, food prices fell by 0.1% mom, a very much non-seaso...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The FX market remained relatively calm at the beginning of November. The widened current account surplus, accompanied by some measures of capital controls, caused the ruble to appreciate. It strengthened to R/$92 as of November 8. The new sanctions package, announced in early November, may negati...

The Tax Reform proposal was approved in the Senate, Haddad met with party leaders to discuss the ICMS subsidy, and the STF resumes analysis of the ADI on the FGTS correction

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2023

The government had an important victory in the Senate by guaranteeing the approval of the Tax Reform proposal in two rounds. The score was tight, with just 4 votes more than the minimum required, at 53 votes in favor and 24 against. Yesterday, November 8, Haddad met with Lira and party leaders fr...

Both business expectations and consumer confidence decline sharply

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

October’s Business Sentiment Survey points to a sharp deterioration in expectations for growth next month (November), with this component declining to -23 points from +0.4 in September. The employment expectation component also turned net negative to -14.65 from 1.16. The construction sector is e...

Federal budget surplus narrows as revenues climb

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus narrowed to R1.235 trln in 10M23. The original officially approved 2023 budget targeted a deficit of R2.925 trln. The deficit was widest in 4M23 (R3.049 trln) as the government spent money ahead of schedule in the early year to fina...

Putin in Kazakhstan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

On November 9 Putin met his Kazakh counterpart in Astana. President Tokayev said that the relationship between the two former Soviet states has a bright future. The chemistry between the two seemed to be surprisingly good. This is only Putin's third trip abroad since the Ukraine War began. In 202...

European Commission recommends Ukraine and Moldova for EU membership

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

On November 8 the President of the European Commission said that the two countries should be admitted to the EU. Ursula von der Leyen noted that both had made tangible progress towards meeting the EU's requirements in only a few months. The Commission suggested introducing a negotiating framework...

Ukraine receiving more US arms

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

On November 7 Zelensky said that his country had deployed NASAMS air defense systems. These are surface-to-air missiles for short-to-medium range. The US said NASMAS have a 100% success rate in stopping Russian missiles. Ukraine anticipates a Russian air assault on the energy infrastructure. This...

The fiscal deficit expands rapidly

ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

The fiscal deficit expanded rapidly to 2.6% GDP in the last 12 months through October from 1.5% one month ago. The actual deficit in October reached 22.9bn ILS compare to 3.1bn in Oct 22. Expenditure of ministries expanded by 12.3% y/y, mostly due to higher defense spending. Tax revenues declined...

The CCJ approved Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform, Haddad may have a meeting with party leaders today to discuss the ICMS subsidy, and the ADI on the FGTS correction is on the STF’s agenda today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2023

Yesterday, November 7, the Senate Constitution and Justice Committee approved Senator Eduardo Braga's report on Tax Reform. The plenary also approved, by 48 to 24, a request for a special schedule. Today, November 8, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, may have a meeting with party leaders ...

New KSH data reflects the continuation of a genuinely weak economy in September

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

KSH has just released four new reports with monthly data. Three of these, the ones on industry, retail sales and housing construction, are quite negative, not at all pointing to any rapid recovery of domestic supply and demand. The fourth one, on guest turnover at hotels, is actually quite positi...

COSTA RICA: Positive economic news

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 07 Nov 2023

The last few weeks have been marked by positive news for Costa Rica's economy. First, the EU recently removed the country from the tax haven blacklist as a result of the amendments approved by the Legislative Assembly to the foreign exemption regime. This is a major accomplishment because it remo...