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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 22 May 2023

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, with 4.75% likely to be the terminal rate. 2. Tightening will be supported by higher core inflation, a tight labor market and fairly steady growth (although with growth pessimism). 3. A sharper hike of 0.5% cannot be ruled out, but the MPC will most ...

Russia claims to have taken Bakhmut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2023

On May 20 the head of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin said his fighters have control of the city. The Russian Army confirmed this. They have been fighting there since August 2022. Wagner Group said they had stopped taking prisoners. Wagner said it would hand the city over to the Russian Army on Ma...

We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, but a 0.5% hike cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 May 2023

We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, but cannot rule out 0.5% Nevertheless, the MPC will most likely also discuss a sharper hike of 0.5% (most likely a minority view). Most macro factors support further tightening: May’s upward inflation surprise, acceleration in core inflation, tight labor mark...

Down the rabbit hole
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2023 · 1 response

With a week left to the critical run-off between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, the politics section is rather brief, focusing on two issues. First the politics author explains why his predictions didn’t pan out. It turns out that there was a groundswell of nationalism, while IYIP and CHP voters didn’...

China announces plan to develop Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2023

On May 19 President Xi said that China will help Central Asia with infrastructure, security and defense. He said he wants to improve trade. Xi was speaking at a summit for China and Central Asian countries. Xi said it would be a gain for all the countries involved. Central Asia is Kazakhstan, Kyr...

Russia losing scientists
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2023

On May 18 the vice-president of the Russian Academy of Sciences said that 50,000 scientists have left the country since 2018. He said that the government's policy of technological sovereignty is unachievable while the country is hemorrhaging highly educated scientists. He said that funding for re...

G7 Summit: Zelensky attends and more sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2023

On May 19 the Group of the seven most industrialized economies met in Japan. The sanctions will hit Russian diamonds. Russia sells at least USD 4 billion in diamonds each year.  The G7 will probably not ban the purchase of all Russian diamonds. Belgium is a major buyer, with Antwerp's being one o...

GULF WEEKLY: KSA sells $6bn sukuk, Moody’s upgrades Oman, Zelensky addresses Arab League in Jeddah
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Arab League summit opened today in Jeddah with Assad and Zelensky in attendance. * Qatar-Bahrain flights will restart next week after a six-year suspension. * Saudi Arabia sold $6bn in sukuk, and the UAE’s Aldar and B...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary (Kazakhstan+)
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 May 2023

May 5 Azerbaijan: Gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Italy via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) increased in 1Q23 by 6.3% y-o-y to 2.4 bcm May 8 Uzbekistan: Early presidential elections are scheduled for June 9. May 10 Georgia: The country imported 41K tons of wheat in 1Q23 (+22.3% y-o-y) Georgia: ...

Kazan Forum opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2023

On May 18 the economic forum opened for its 14th year. 15,000 people have registered to come and they belong to 85 countries. That is fewer than before. Kazan is the capital of the Tatarstan Republic. It is the homeland of an indigenous Muslim ethnic minority, the Tatars. The forum is its Muslim ...

Butter versus guns in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 May 2023

There have been enough incidents to suggest that China is softening its “wolf warrior” diplomacy toward the west, and the United States, in particular. This could have a substantial impact both on China’s foreign relations and its domestic economy. This contradicts some incidents suggesting a har...

First MNB sterilisation rate cut more likely in June than next Tuesday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 May 2023

The forint has weakened somewhat over the last 24 hours, giving back from its impressive strength seen in recent weeks. Two reasons are widely mentioned: USD strengthening against EUR, and the upcoming Monetary Council meeting early next week (Tuesday, May 23), when many on the market think the M...

Ukraine claims to have shot down 6 hypersonic missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2023

On May 17 Ukraine claimed it shot down Kinzhal missiles, which are Russia's latest. There was an overnight Russian missile attack on Kyiv. Russia also used conventional missiles, and Ukraine claimed to have shot down 12 ballistic missiles. Ukraine said that Russia also used Iranian Shahed drones....

The urgent status of the new tax regime was approved in the House, Haddad said that Tax Reform may be voted on in June and three CPIs were installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2023

As expected, the Lower House approved the urgent status of the new tax regime bill by a wide margin. About the Tax Reform, Haddad said that in June the proposal of amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of the Tax Reform may be voted on. The rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), should prese...

Key policy rate held at 6.25%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 May 2023

After raising its set of policy rates by 425bp since May last year, the Monetary Board decided today to pause monetary tightening, keeping the overnight RRP rate at 6.25%. The decision is based on the BSP’s forecast of a gradual decline in inflation to target by 4Q, inflation expectations for 202...

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