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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Big blows to Erdogan, a “thin” one for Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023 · 4 responses

BAD PUN WARNING: “İnce” is the Turkish word for “thin”, which also happens to be the surname of former CHP member and presidential candidate Mr. Muharrem Ince. Get it? Turkey’s competing political alliances; the governing Republican and main opposition Nation; are facing hurdles in their sweat-so...

Japanese PM in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 21 Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit. He met Zelensky and visited Bucha where Russian troops allegedly massacred civilians in 2022.  Kishida reaffirmed Japan's support for Ukrainian independence and its sovereignty over all its land. Japan has sent military aid to Ukraine. Japan has a ...

Foreign policy: one strike right, one strike left
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

In recent days, Hungary continued its usual policy outside the mainstream of the EU and NATO, in a way that could be characterised best as uneasy cooperation, an extremely delicate and risky process in our view. For one issue, Fidesz has announced a decision to support Finland's NATO membership, ...

Boluarte survives; focus shifts to the economy; BCRP to cut rates in April
PERU · Report · 21 Mar 2023 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on our new forecasts. We first discuss how long President Dina Boluarte is likely to remain in power; then assess whether the Peruvian economy has fallen into recession; and, finally discuss our outlook for policy rate management by the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (...

A very soft landing, with plenty of turbulence
CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Chilean economic activity has been moving away from the protracted decline observed in the second half of 2022. The Monthly Economic Activity Index surprised positively in January. The breakdown by sectors showed widespread improvement. Nevertheless, services continued to lead the way. The real q...

Drone strikes on Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 21 Russia claimed the attack hit a civilian target and wounded one person. However, Ukraine said that the strike hit Kalibr missiles that were being transported by rail. If that is true then Russia is partly correct inasmuch as the railroad is civilian infrastructure. There have been no ...

Haddad presented the general outline of the new fiscal framework, VP Alckmin criticized the high interest rate in the country, and a reduction in the payroll loan interest rates had the opposite effect
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Haddad said he fulfilled the presentation schedule for the leaders of the House and Senate, in addition to the presidents of both houses. Both Pacheco and Arthur Lira have reportedly welcomed the proposal. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said that an interest rate of 8% above inflation hampers con...

Economics: Continuing export strength potentially threatened by the direction of US demand
MEXICO · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Economic activity data for January and February has delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction, as have consumer and business confidence indicators. US industrial production, with its decisive incidence on Mexican manufacturing, has been slowing over the past three mon...

Chinese President in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 20 President Xi visited Putin. Russia is very glad to receive him. Xi said his visit is about ''friendship, cooperation and peace.'' Xi published an article in a Russian newspaper saying, ''I look forward to working with Putin to jointly adopt a new vision.'' China claims to be neutral i...

Politics: The contradictions and problems of militarizing public security
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The twin issues of public security and its militarization, specifically the role of the Armed Forces and National Guard, are once again on the front burner in Mexico. The latest spark was a February 26 incident involving students traveling home after a night of partying in border city Nuevo Lared...

COPOM, FOMC and ECB: Central Banks Carrying Out Their Mandates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

Robert Mundell, who won a Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999, expressed the “principle of effective market classification”, advocating the use of each economic policy instrument in pursuit of the objective with the greatest efficiency. The instrument that has a “comparative advantage” to stanch a ...

Lula to travel to China and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The government should submit the new fiscal framework to Congress. On Wednesday, March 22, the Central Bank will decide on the basic interest rate. President Lula (PT) will travel to China, joined by ministers, legislators, and businessmen. This week's Talking Points: * Lula to travel to C...

Uemployment declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Unemployment declined in February to 3.9% from 4.3% in January (sa) with the employment ratio up to 61.4% from 61.2% (employed/working age population). The number of employed continued to increase  fairly rapidly in February. This positive labor print strengthens our conviction that the likelihoo...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework bill, the Copom will meet on Tuesday to discuss the basic interest rate, and Lula will travel to China this weekend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill to Congress on the new fiscal framework. Last week, the economic team presented the text to President Lula (PT). The bill will first be analyzed in the House. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank will meet this Tuesday and Wednes...

Inflation remains sticky and broad based
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Mar 2023

1. Inflation in February surprised on the upside and remains both sticky and broad-based. 2. Most macro factors support weaker inflationary pressure going forward, except for the likelihood of further shekel weakness. 3. At this stage, we expect a 0.5% rate hike on April 3, as the BoI is li...

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