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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Interest rates unchanged, ending off-market sales of FX to energy importers announced today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

There was no surprise at today's rate-setting Monetary Council meeting: all interest rates, including the 18% sterilisation rate, the 13% base rate and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor remained unchanged, as expected (see chart below). Yet an important change of policy was announced: the selli...

Decisive battle over Ukrainian south looms
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Mar 2023

The Russians failed to seize Bakhmut, despite the huge efforts they devoted to taking the town. The goal of Ukrainian forces was to exhaust the Russians as much as possible before the spring counter-offensive started. Sitting in defense in Bakhmut was a good position for the Ukrainian Army to cau...

Russia prepares new mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

Russia and the foreign media have reported since March 18 increasing signs of a call-up of military-aged men. In Udmurtia Region the Governor went on TV to convince people that no one will be conscripted but he asked men to volunteer ''to defend the Fatherland.'' In 2022 the conscription and the ...

Lasso's Situation Gets More Complicated
ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

As expected, the Assembly submitted to the Constitutional Court the petition to initiate an impeachment of President Lasso.  This petition is based on the report presented by an ad-hoc legislative commission dominated by the opposition, in which Lasso was accused virtually of everything the Const...

A lull in the storm
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Netanyahu announced on March 26 that the legislation (second and third Parliamentary votes) geared towards changing the judicial system will be postponed until the summer Parliament session in order to try to reach a broadly acceptable compromise. The opposition generally supported this move (alt...

Politics: Current electoral trends and the presidential succession
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2023

With election campaigning officially set to begin in the State of Mexico and Coahuila gubernatorial races in the first few days of April, observers are closely watching the trends and outcome to consider their possible impact on the 2024 races, when the presidency, state, municipal and local gove...

The crisis in the legislature is hurting the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

Former President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil. There will be a concentrated effort to vote on provisional measures in the House. On Friday, the STF will begin judgment of the preliminary injunction of the State-Owned Companies Law. This week's Talking Points: * The legislature is p...

Solid budgetary performance in 2M23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M23, the country’s consolidated budget was in surplus equal to KZT695 bn, i.e., slightly above $1.5bn. This budget incorporates the Republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and state social funds (net of mutual transfers). Revenues of the...

The War Against the Central Bank
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

The Central Bank, aware of the need to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory, kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% at the last COPOM meeting, and stated that it will not hesitate to increase the rate if necessary. A level-headed analysis of the projections clearly shows that if the monetary auth...

Economics: Commercial banks look solid, but some non-bank banks may prove the soft underbelly
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2023

Following the recent events involving a number of banks in the United States (the failures in short order of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank and financial problems at First Republic Bank) and in Europe (e.g., Credit Suisse and its sudden acquisition by UBS), speculation ha...

President Lula canceled his trip to China, and former President Bolsonaro is expected to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

For health reasons, President Lula canceled his trip to China this week. The trip may take place in May. Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is due to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30. Bolsonaro traveled to the United States on December 30 last year to avoid handing over the presidential s...

Growth is expected to decelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Mar 2023

1. Last night’s firing of Defense Minister Gallant resulted in mass demonstrations. This morning the shekel is appreciating on expectations for a freeze on judicial legislation. 2. Co-incident indicators, such as the BoI Composite Index, point to fairly steady growth. 3. Nevertheless, growt...

Growth is expected to decelerate, political uncertainty elevates higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Several indicators are pointing to slowing growth ahead In January, high-tech service exports declined by 3.4% compared to Q422. In December-February industrial exports contracted by 11% saar. Imports of raw materials declined by 22%, consumer goods by 4% and machinery and equipment by 16% (all s...

Macro thoughts: take two
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Mar 2023

We take stock of the political landscape, update our thoughts on the macroeconomic outlook for this year, and take a quick glance at the next. The pressures in the currency market continue unabated, as attested to by myriad interventions and controls, but the likelihood of a pre-election ‘curr...

Still no rate cut is likely at the March 28 Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

Predicting the outcome of the March 28 rate-setting meeting, when the MNB's Q1 inflation report is also due to be discussed, appeared quite easy around the middle of this month. By that time, the forint had depreciated to around EURHUF 395, at which level any reduction of the sterilisation rate l...

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