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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Another spike in growth
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Nov 2022

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q3 2022, growing by 5.72% Y/Y. This is significantly higher than the 5.44% achieved in the previous quarter. In fact, the rate of growth also exceeded the consensus. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy also expanded, ...

A dovish hike combined with hawkish talk
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Nov 2022

1. Despite the 0.5% dovish hike, messages from the BoI remain rather hawkish. 2. We currently expect two more hikes, to a terminal rate of 4.0% in February 2023. 3. The MoF does not appear concerned that the cancellation of non-tradeable bonds will put pressure on tradeable bonds.

A dovish hike combined with hawkish talk
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2022

Rates increased by 0.5% to 3.25% On Monday, the BoI hiked rates up by 0.5%, while market expectations were divided between 0.5% and 0.75%. The monetary statement retained the usual justification: Inflation is above target, economic activity is strong, and the labor market tight. On the other hand...

“Yağdır, Mevlam, Yağdır”*
TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

To our surprise, Saudi Arabia and Qatar chose to bankroll President Erdogan’s election campaign with generous financial donations. In return, Erdogan promised to meet Assad and shook hands with Sisi. However, neither U-turn signals substantial policy change. Financial aid from Gulf countries poss...

Russian combat deaths proven to be 9,300+
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2022

On November 26 the BBC and a Russian media outlet Mediazone said they could name 9,300 Russian soldiers who have died in the Ukraine War. It is thought that the true number of war deaths could easily be double this. The report said that total casualties (dead, wounded, missing and captured) could...

Oil price cap will have repercussions from the West - Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2022

On November 24 Putin said to the Iraqi PM that the Western plan to put a cap on Russian oil will harm the energy market. The Kremlin published a transcript of his conversation.  The US said on November 22 that it will soon announce details of its oil cap plan along with its allies. The oil price ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi+Qatar to aid Turkey, Abu Dhabi H1 GDP, Kuwait announces political amnesty
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil ministers denied that a quota increase was being considered in response to the Russia price cap. * Saudi Arabia and Qatar are finalizing up to $15bn in financing support for Turkey. * Saudi nationalism was stoked by a...

Recovery again constrained by COVID
CHINA · Report · 25 Nov 2022

Growth is weakly recovering, with pressure ahead largely due to COVID prevention measures and related lockdowns. Although rumors have suggested that the zero-COVID policy could be abandoned, there were also signs that China would commit to this policy in the short term, citing reasons in state me...

A CPI request against the STF and TSE has been filed in the House, Lula will meet with allies in São Paulo today, and Fernando Haddad will have lunch with the Febraban today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2022

The request for the CPI, to investigate possible abuses of authority, was filed with 181 signatures, 10 more than the minimum required. The signatures have already been verified. The request is unlikely to succeed. It will be added to a list with the other CPI requests. Today, President-elect Lul...

Carrasquilla sacked from Central Bank board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Section 5 of the State Council (one of Colombia's three high courts) declared void the appointment of Alberto Carrasquilla as board member of the Central Bank. According to the statement published to announce the decision, the appointment of Mr. Carrasquilla did not observe the share of women req...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2022

Nov 11 President: Kazakhstan plans to attract $20 bln in investments for the diversification of transport routes and the development of logistics by 2025, Mr. Tokayev said at the summit of the Organization of Turkic States Nov 15 Ministry of Economy: Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 2.5% in Jan-Oct (y-o-...

Winners and losers in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Nov 2022

China has announced a package of stimulus measures for the property market. They are a compromise between full economic support and the previous harsh restrictions on the property developers. However, many of the measures are focused on demand, while consumers are reluctant to invest in an unstab...

The South African Reserve Bank maintains momentum as it raises interest rates by a third consecutive 75 bps
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Nov 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the benchmark interest rate by a further 75 basis points, from 6.25% to 7%, during its final meeting of the year. As a result, the prime lending rate also increased from 9.75% to 10.5%. In this report we di...

Moving slowly into recession
HUNGARY · Report · 25 Nov 2022

Preliminary GDP for Q3 was much stronger than suggested previously by the MNB’s frequently cited lead indicator. However, the economy is still moving into recession slowly, as shown by the marginally negative quarterly growth rate. Strengths in Q3 included industry and retail sales, whereas real ...

Russia bans gay propaganda among adults
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2022

On November 24 the lower house of the Russian Parliament passed a law that imposes fines of thousands of USD for encouraging non-traditional sexual relationships. Encouraging such relationships among children was already outlawed. Encouraging sex changes is also now forbidden. The bill has gone t...

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