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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russians claim troops are leaving Kherson but this might be a trap
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Nov 2022

Today in the morning there were stingy reports about Ukrainian forces taking Snihurivka, a critical stronghold of Russian frontline to the North of Kherson. Heavy fights for Snihurivka have lasted for several months. We do not know what happened whether Russians just withdrew or Ukrainian forces ...

Lula scheduled to meet with Lira, Pacheco, and Weber today, the Transition PEC should be outlined after the meetings, and the TCU rejected a request to suspend the payment of Petrobras’s dividends
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2022

Lula will have meetings with the presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and the Supreme Federal Court, Minister Rosa Weber. The meeting with Lira is scheduled for 10 a.m. He should meet with Pacheco at 1 p.m., and with Rosa Weber at 4 p.m. Lula will on...

October CPI-inflation still shows acceleration, though less steep than in previous months
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2022

Figures for the headline rate were 2% mom, 21.1% yoy, the latter up from 20.1% in September, and above the 20.7% yoy median expectation of analysts asked in Portfolio.hu's poll. Core inflation rose to 22.3% yoy from the previous 20.7% yoy, on a 2.2% mom rise in October. Household energy rose by 6...

The government will be unable to reduce inflation or accumulate foreign reserves
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Nov 2022

The rate of inflation persists above 6% per month, and the government has no effective tools to bring it down. In the past, the tools used to fight inflation were, alternatively, the exchange rate, freezing utility prices, containing nominal wage rises, and increasing interest rates (or quantitat...

The Transition PEC should be outlined tomorrow, Lula is expected to meet with Lira, Pacheco and Weber tomorrow, and the demonstrations against the results of the election should gradually lose strength
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2022

The decision regarding the text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), scheduled for Tuesday, was postponed to Wednesday. The PT leader in the House, re-elected Deputy Reginaldo Lopes (MG), stated that he believes the Transition PEC is the beginning of a debate on combining fi...

Economy minister suggests growth and inflation is stronger than generally expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2022 · 1 response

The macro news for today is economy minister Nagy's statement that GDP growth will likely reach a positive 4% yoy in Q3 and remain slightly positive in Q4, implying average growth of 4.5% for 2022. In addition, CPI-inflation is likely to go further up substantially in the coming months, to around...

Putin's chef admits interfering in US elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2022

On November 7 Yevgeny Prigozhin finally admitted what he had denied for years: that he interfered in US elections. Prigozhin is very close to Putin and is under sanctions from the US and EU. He vowed to continue to ''interfere...carefully, surgically and precisely.'' The Russian Government has de...

Politics: AMLO shifts focus from public security to political reform and presidential hopefuls
MEXICO · Report · 07 Nov 2022

With his militarization of public security measures having already passed Congress and well on their way to final ratification, President López Obrador has been free to focus on the next phases of his strategy to ensure that his Morena party will retain its hold on the National Palace following t...

Economics: Surprisingly strong 3Q results bode well for 2022, although methodological doubts remain
MEXICO · Report · 07 Nov 2022

The most recent broad readings of economic activity in Mexico proved to be much stronger than had been expected. Inegi’s preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP showed the economy expanding an annual 4.3% according to seasonally adjusted data. The IGAE monthly GDP proxy for August showed a 4.2%...

Approval of Hungary's CAP plan by the EU Commission is an important step forward but no game changer
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2022

The news came today that the EU Commission had approved Hungary's plan to use its €8.4bn grant quota under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) section of the new 7-year EU budget. This is an important step forward, as previously no parts of Hungary's utilisation plan for the new budget and the R...

Challenges in assembling the new government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

The government transition team will be installed under the coordination of future Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). President-elect Lula (PT) will have meetings with the presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP), the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), and the STF, Rosa Weber. The Transition PEC w...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Lula’s victory in the second round, with 50.9% of the valid votes, a difference of only 2.1 million votes, reveals a deeply divided nation. Lula won in the Northeast and Bolsonaro prevailed in the other four regions. The majority of governors elected or reelected come from the opposition, includi...

Russia political/pandemic update: history repeats itself, once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Apart from the many unpleasant social, economic, and political effects of the coronavirus pandemic, a few developments gradually affected economic behavior in a rather creative fashion. One of them was that many employers and employees realized that one could do almost the same job without going ...

Lula will meet with the presidents of the House, the Senate and the STF tomorrow, a PEC is being discussed to allow for more public spending next year, and the full transition team will be announced this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Today, Lula will have a meeting with Geraldo Alckmin, who was appointed as coordinator of the transition team. On Tuesday, Lula will be in Brasília. He will have meetings with Lower House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL), Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and Supreme Federal Court President ...

Will fiscal credibility be maintained?
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Netanyahu to form the next government * The right wing/ultra-religious parties received 64 mandates (out of 120) and should have no problem forming a stable coalition. * The fiscal demands of the ultra-orthodox parties include cancelling the tax on soft drinks and disposable utensi...

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