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The chairs of the standing committees of Congress should be chosen, and the Tax Reform Working Group will hear from Bernard Appy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Today, March 8, the chair and vice-chair candidates appointed by the leaders of the party blocs to the standing committees of the Senate will be elected. In the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) also had the party leaders submit the list of candidates to chair the standing committees. Today, the Tax Ref...

South Africa’s economic growth decelerates to 2% in 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy contracted during the final quarter of 2022 following a rallying of 1.8% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP recorded a growth rate of -1.3% q/q, la...

President Ramaphosa reshuffles his cabinet under duress
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

Last night after much anticipation and months of delays, President Ramaphosa finally announced some fairly predictable changes to his Cabinet. His old ally and now X-Deputy President David Mabuza finally resigned as a Member of the Parliament after weeks of hoping that Ramaphosa would reshuffle b...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, albeit with no signs of acceleration
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, inflation m-o-m in February was 1.3%, i.e., much higher than in February 2022 (0.8% m-o-m). As a result, y-o-y inflation in February moved to 21.3% (from 20.7% a month ago), while the 6M moving average monthly inflation stayed at 1.4%, i.e., almost ...

Lula is likely to keep the Minister of Communications in office, the União Brasil and the PP are considering forming a party federation, and Bolsonaro continues to lose political capital
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2023

President Lula met with the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho (União), accused of using a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) plane to participate in an auction of racehorses in São Paulo and omitting information about his personal assets to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Lula has decided to...

February inflation at 8.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

The headline inflation rate slid from a 15-year high of 8.7% in January to 8.6% in February. It was below analysts’ expectations (8.9% median) and within the BSP’s forecast for the month (8.5% to 9.6%) but it basically reflected unchanged prices on the average, i.e., zero month-on-month inflation...

Deux Ex Machina for Nation Alliance, Final Battle for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023 · 6 responses

It has been a very eventful day for Turkey, the nomination of Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the joint presidential candidate of the reunited Nation Alliance (NA) being only one. Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia deposited $5 bn with CBRT, somewhat reducing the likelihood of a currency shock before the ele...

Federal budget deficit narrowed in February as spending moderated tax collection improved
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

Minfin reported that the federal budget deficit in February decreased to R821 bn (versus R1760 bn in January) as non-oil-and-gas tax collection improved and reached R1286 bn (versus 931 bn in January). The oil-and-gas tax flow was poor in both months as the price for Russian oil remained below $5...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

Just In the few weeks since assuming office, the new government has been repeating the imprudent pattern of confronting the limits imposed on its power by the established rules, as is typical of autocracies of the right or left. Unlike Bolsonaro, who left decisions on economic questions largely i...

The Deceleration of GDP And the Possible Reaction of the Government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

If the decline of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 had been a fleeting event, followed by recovery, there would be no worry about the government’s reaction. But this was not a temporary deceleration, but rather a persistent one. Despite the expansionary fiscal policy, monetary policy has been in...

Waiting for the new fiscal framework and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

The House and Senate may elect the chairs of their respective standing committees. In the House, the Tax Reform Working Group works with Bernard Appy to analyze pending proposals in Congress. President Lula is expected to finalize the format of the Desenrola program. This week's Talking Points...

Politics: Significance and implications of the second mass civil society mobilization
MEXICO · Report · 06 Mar 2023 · 1 response

A new potential force is entering the electoral panorama in Mexico and it might be a game changer. On Sunday, February 25 an estimated 1.2 million citizens took to the streets in 100 cities throughout the country in defense of the autonomy and ongoing autonomous functioning of the National Electo...

Economics: February economic data shows growth continues to slow as inflation remains high
MEXICO · Report · 06 Mar 2023

Economic indicators released last month showed continuing growth in key areas of industrial and service activity, as well as evidence that the slower pace that began to emerge over the course of the fourth quarter extended into 2023. They also showed that inflation remains sticky, especially in t...

Lula will meet with the Minister of Communications today, the government may launch its debt renegotiation program this week, and Mercosur and EU negotiators will discuss a free trade agreement in Buenos Aires
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

The Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho – from the União Brasil party – is being accused of using a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) plane to participate in an auction of racehorses in São Paulo and omitting information about his personal assets to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Even the pr...

No BoI FX intervention in February
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

The Bank of Israel did not sell FX at all in February. The reserves did decline by 4.7ml USD due mostly to revaluation (global dollar appreciation). This underlines the BoI policy of avoiding FX intervention unless there is tremendous market dislocation in the short term. The weakening of the she...

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