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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic data confirm our projections for 2022 and 2023. The financial deficit of the defined benefit pension system is the most pressing issue of public policy in the next 18 months.
PANAMA · Report · 31 Oct 2022

The first half of 2022 presented critical messages. First, the comparison of GDP growth in the first six months of 2022 with the same period in 2021 (11.8%) confirms that the economy continues to proceed along a path to recovery. However, activity contracted by 0.5% in the first half of 2022 vis-...

Economics: Considerable risks from the revised Pacic anti-inflation accord, with scant effect expected in prices
MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2022

This past October 19, the federal government formally decreed a second iteration of its Pacic Anti-inflation and Cost of Living Accord, known as "Pacic 2", with the corresponding decree's being published in the federal daily gazette. In addition to continuing to exempt selected goods from import ...

Russia is taking out Ukraine's energy infrastructure
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2022

On October 31 Russia said it had launched many successful missile and bomb attacks on power stations. Ukraine confirmed this. Before October 21 over a third of Ukraine's energy production had been put out of operation. If attacks continue at this rate Ukraine will lose all energy by the end of No...

Growth is slowly recovering
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly increased by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. In particular, it rose 6.3% y/y in September, up 2.1 pps from August, leading the first three qu...

Monetary Policy, Inflation and Effects on Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Oct 2022

At its last meeting, the COPOM kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% a year. In the communiqué about this decision, the committee members repeated the alerts expressed after the meeting in September, regarding the uncertainties over the fiscal framework, the high likelihood that the output gap was narrow...

Another rate hike
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2022 · 1 response

For the past several months, Indonesia's economy has been hit by rising inflation. The Central Board of Statistics reported early this month on the Consumers Price Index for the month of September 2022, which registered inflation of 1.17%, a relatively high monthly rate. Inflation was broad based...

EU chief tells Central Asia he wants better relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2022

On October 27 the President of the European Council was in Kazakhstan. He said the EU wants to cooperate more with Central Asia. He used his visit to lacerate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Charles Michel praised Kazakhstan as a partner. It was Michel's first visit to the country. Michel said t...

Russia ends mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2022

On October 28 Russia said it was no longer calling up reservists. In September 2022 Russia called up 460,000 reservists. The Defense Ministry said its target has been reached. The mobilization was supposed to be of men aged 18-35 who had undergone military training already. Even Putin admitted th...

Lula was elected the next President of Brazil, Bolsonaro has not yet addressed the results, and truck drivers organize a blockade of the highways to protest Bolsonaro’s defeat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2022

With the tightest result in the history of Brazil, former President Lula will return to the Presidency of the Republic after beating President Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of 2.1 million votes. Now, the market is anxious to find out who will comprise Lula's ministerial team, especially the Minister...

Israel goes to elections tomorrow
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Oct 2022

* Despite political instability in Israel, fiscal responsibility is expected to be maintained. * Growth in Q3 appears to be slowing as exports declined and private consumption growth moderated. * The labor market remains tight, but unemployment ticked higher in September.

Israel goes to elections tomorrow
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Oct 2022

Labor market remains tight, but slightly less  Unemployment increased in September slightly to 3.7% (sa) from 3.5% with the number of employed down nearly 28k.  On the other hand, the number of job vacancies ticked slightly higher. Growth appears to be decelerating modestly Credit card purchases ...

Just another manic week
TURKEY · Report · 30 Oct 2022 · 1 response

The governing alliance seems to have lost the momentum it enjoyed over the summer months, as a key MP defected from AKP, while President Erdogan’s heavily promoted “Independence Day Vision Statement” failed to excite. AKP might be in more trouble, if the opposition claims -- of more defections fr...

Russia suspends grain deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2022

On October 29 suspended its involvement in the grain agreement that allowed Ukrainian foodstuffs to be shipped out via the Black Sea. Moscow ended the agreement it said because of drone attacks on Russian ships in Crimea on October 29. Russia said this was the biggest drone attack thus far. Russi...

Growth and inflation trends mixed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2022

The Costa Rican economy is evolving better than expected, despite the adverse external conditions. Recent reversal signals in the downward trend of economic activity during H1 2022 suggest that real GDP growth could be higher than projected. The main driver relates to FTZ exports, including a new...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF announces MENA funds, S&P hikes Sharjah deficits, Shell invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA forecasts lower long-term oil and gas demand because of green investments post-Ukraine. * Saudi Arabia repurchased $1.3bn in bonds but will wait until Q1 to fully allocate its fiscal surplus. * The “Davos in the D...

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