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Politics: Revelations by hackers and a new book provide a thorough look at organized crime and alleged government corruption
MEXICO · Report · 17 Oct 2022

In the past two weeks, President López Obrador’s critics were handed two unforeseen sources of information with which to bolster their case against the current administration. The first consists of many thousands of documents and emails from and regarding the Armed Forces made public by hackers w...

Evaluation of the first debate of the runoff round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

This is the penultimate week of the electoral campaign before the runoff round, on October 30. Candidates for president and governor are intensifying their campaigns. Several presidential and state polls have been scheduled. This week’s Talking Points: * Party movements. * The ...

Abel Martínez won the PLD consultation to elect his pre-presidential candidate for 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Oct 2022

Abel Martinez won comfortably with 60.9% of the votes, followed by Francisco Dominguez Brito with 20.8% and Margarita Cedeño with 16.2%. Martinez is the current mayor of Santiago, the second largest city in the country. He was elected for the first time for the 2016-2020 period and re-elected for...

September’s CPI comes in slightly above expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Oct 2022

1. Despite the upward inflation surprise in September, core inflation remained stable at 4.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to accelerate y/y in Q422, in part due to the cancellation of the excise tax reduction on petrol. 3. We expect a rate hike of 0.5% on November 21, and further tightening to ...

The first presidential debate of the runoff round was held yesterday, the Special Committee of the STF on the ICMS on fuels will meet on Wednesday, and the STF will resume judgment of ADO No. 59
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

During the debate, it was very clear that the pandemic is an uncomfortable topic for Jair Bolsonaro, just as corruption is for former President Lula. Lula did well in the first block. In the other two, Bolsonaro did better. On Wednesday, October 19, the Special Committee that debates the collecti...

Russia has lost 90,000 soldiers - reports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2022

On October 12 a Russian independent media project called iStories reported that 90,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded, captured or gone missing in Ukraine in 2022. iStories said that Kremlin sources provided this information. In some cases wounds will be slight, and soldiers are compl...

Thus Spoke Zarathustra
TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2022

The AKP-MHP controlled Grand Assembly kicked off the winter session with a comprehensive media censorship bill, which aims to intimidate opposition voters and get rid of all content unpleasant for the regime. While we strongly protest the law and agree with the consensus that it may hurt the oppo...

Difficult CIS summit for Russia, CSTO role examined
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2022

On October 14, the CIS leaders’ summit started in Kazakhstan. It proved to be a testing summit for Russia, mainly on account of regional questions around security and hierarchies. Also within the CIS are the six nations that make up the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The CSTO alliance i...

First Russian draftees killed in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2022

On October 14 it was reported that some of those conscripted in September 2022 were killed 10 days after mobilization. Some of those drafted have been lawyers which is unusual. Those drafted are usually working class. Very few Muscovites have been drafted. Draftees are often from impoverished reg...

September’s CPI comes in above expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

September’s CPI comes in above expectations Inflation in September increased by 0.2% m/m (expectations were for 0.1% while some local forecasters were expecting zero) and 4.6% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation increased by 4.7% y/y in the past three months. Housing rental prices (OER) i...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC votes against annexation, oil demand revised down, Iraq picks president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC, IEA and EIA all revised down 2023 demand growth, and oil softened from last week’s surge. * Our analysis of the updated OPEC supply projections implies relatively flat quotas in 2023. * The US had offered to set a $...

Bolsonaro will be in Minas Gerais and Rio, Lula will be in Pernambuco, and the first presidential debate will be held on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2022

Bolsonaro will participate in a parade in Duque de Caxias (RJ) in the morning. In the afternoon, he will meet with the mayors of the state of Minas and the re-elected governor of Minas, Romeu Zema (Novo), in Belo Horizonte. Lula (PT) is still in the Northeast. He will be in Pernambuco today, wher...

NATO providing air defense to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

On October 13 it was reported that US and its allies are rapidly giving air defense systems to Ukraine. The recent spate of Russian missile attacks has prompted this. The attacks killed 20 Ukrainian civilians and damaged infrastructure. Ukraine claimed to have shot down almost half of the Russian...

The MNB took action to stabilise the forint this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

The Monetary Council announced early this morning a series of actions, with a view to stabilising the forint after a 6% slide against the euro since the Council's previous communications on September 27. The following measures were announced, with immediate effect: - The Bank's O/N credit rate wa...

Xi Jinping’s tough choices in the chip wars
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Oct 2022

I was very interested to read opposing analyses of the impact of the new U.S. policy toward the export of semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology to China — both from former Department of Defense analysts. One was from Gregory Allen, a CSIS analyst, and former Director of Strategy an...

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