GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

El Salvador is preparing for the February 2024 presidential elections, with President Nayib Bukele already registered to run. His notice revived discussions about the supposed unconstitutionality of his running for a successive term, and several annulment petitions were presented before the Supre...

The economy continued to expand in October

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that the Russian economy continued to grow in October as the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 5.9% and 7.7% in 10M23 and October alone. However, as happened previously on many occasions, this growth appeared uneven across various segments. Agriculture grew by 1.9% a...

Freedoms will drive outcomes in 2024

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 29 Nov 2023

The sanctions relief begun in late 2022 is gradually adding oxygen to the Venezuelan economy. While it’s no panacea, it does translate into higher output for the joint ventures in which Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Maurel & Prom hold minority stakes, and therefore stronger export revenue and foreign...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Nov 2023

Nov 17 Economy Ministry: The draft of the new Tax Code, which is due to come into force in Kazakhstan in 2025, includes the introduction of a two-step scale of personal income tax rates for salaries Ministry of Transport: Kazakhstan is ready to transfer two of its ports - Aktau and Kuryk - to the...

Divergent views on how the war might end

UKRAINE · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The lack of significant land gains in Ukraine's 2023 summer counter-offensive has sparked intensive discussions about a potential stalemate in the war, and the West's vision for its conclusion. General Valery Zaluzhny's essay in The Economist, widely interpreted as an admission that the front has...

The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidies bill should be installed, the Senate may vote on the sports betting and offshore funds bills, and Deputy Forte is expected to submit his final report on the LDO

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The Joint Committee is scheduled to be installed today to analyze provisional measure 1185/23, which deals with ICMS subsidies. The rapporteur will be Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria (PSD-MG). The Ministry of Finance is negotiating changes to the text. The bill that deals with the taxation of offshore...

Iudex locuta, causa finita…ma non troppo

PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023

After a week of demonstrations in front of the Supreme Court building in Panama City, road blockades, and media pressure, on the early morning of Tuesday (a holiday in Panama), the CSJ declared Law 406, which approved the contract between the government and Minera Panama (a subsidiary of Canada's...

Western nations suspect Turkey of conniving at sanctions busting

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023

On November 27 The Financial Times reported that Turkey's sale of militarily applicable goods to Russia has shot up since 2022. There are 45 items that are dual use. They are sold to Russia directly or indirectly. The explanation is that they have a civilian use as well as a military one. The ite...

The MNB is under friendly fire: rating agencies appear to be worried

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2023 · 1 response

A few days ago, we wrote in our monthly report that the government may step up supporting the MNB's strong forint policy towards end-2023, because of its desire to present a materially decreasing debt ratio. But so far, actual events do not seem to support our forecast. The MNB has received criti...

Economics: Construction boosts GDP growth in the third quarter, while manufacturing stagnates

MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2023

Third quarter GDP data released Friday was closely in line with what Inegi estimated roughly a month earlier in the preliminary figures, with the economy growing an annual 3.3% and a cumulative 3.6% for the first nine months of the year. Growth continues to be driven, above all, by the constructi...

Budget deficits grow as FX sales from the National Fund appreciate the tenge and trim revenues

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M23, the republican budget deficit reached KZT 2.9trln, while the plan for this period was far smaller (KZT 2.355 trln) as the deficit for 2023, as a whole, assumed the KZT 3.209 total amount. In 10M23, the government financed 78.0% of annual planned exp...

Rates on hold with a loosening bias

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

Rates on hold with a loosening bias Policy rates remained unchanged today at a level of 4.75%. Inflation has moderated but remains slightly above target, and the economy is recovering in some components of activity. During the press conference, Governor Yaron stressed that monetary loosening will...

Lula travels to Saudi Arabia this week, the president of the House will meet with party leaders to discuss Tax Reform, and a session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Germany this week. He will be accompanied by ministers, governors, and legislators. Participation in COP28 is scheduled for December 1 and 2. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur,...

OFZ: Temporary improvement

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023

Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, in...

Rate stability expected today, with an easing bias

ISRAEL · Report · 27 Nov 2023

1. A rate-hold decision today is likely, with a strong easing bias. This could entail an unscheduled revised macro forecast for 2024, including a lower policy rate forecast. 2. “Broad” unemployment spiked to 10.4% in October; one quarter of all those usually employed were absent from work for ...