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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A closer look at the Maharlika fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

Last Friday, after over a week of intense public debate about the rationale and sources of funds of a congressional initiative to set up a sovereign wealth fund, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno stepped up to own the proposal. In a press briefing, he read a statement signed by the core members o...

Turkey resolves Russian tanker dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

On December 13 Turkey said that the Western oil price cap will no longer prevent tankers sailing through the Turkish waters from the Black Sea to the Aegean. 20 tankers were anchored in the Black Sea as Turkey said they could not come through until they proved that they had insurance. Turkey is w...

The Kazakh economy was stable in November
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

The country’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 11M22, the monthly short-term indicator (a proxy for overall economic activity) was up by 3.2% y-o-y, which was slightly better than in 10M22 (3.1%). The industry was up by 1.4% y-o-y over the same cumulative period. Such sectors as con...

The Russian budget is still in surplus in 11M22 as massive spending is due in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending was moderate in November (R2.2 trillion) and was on par with volumes seen in the previous months. In 11M22, the government spent R24.2 trillion, while the amended 2022 budget assumed expenditures of around R29.0 trillion. Even thou...

Lula and Alckmin were confirmed by the TSE yesterday, the Transition PEC may be approved in the House this week, and the STF will resume the trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2022

President Lula was confirmed yesterday by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). There were some protests in Brasilia with buses and cars set on fire. As we had warned, some events could occur, but there is no risk of them becoming something more serious or consistent. The PEC has a chance of being ...

Cosmic forecasts from the dark side
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2022

For the last piece of the outgoing year, the third leg of the GSP Turkey team, Cosmic Strategist steps in for the Politics Author, who is currently –allegedly-- driving a ‘78 Dodge Aspen somewhere on Route 66 “to reconnect with his past”. Cosmo is an extremely revolutionary and controversial t...

Deal has been reached on EU funds, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

Pretty much in the last minute before the EU Summit of December 15, EU member states managed to agree last night on a compromise package of measures with Hungary. As part of this: - Hungary agreed to step back from its intended veto on a common borrowing action to back EU financial assistance to ...

Chile's Constitutional Process 2.0
CHILE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022

After three months of negotiation, the parties in Congress have agreed on the basic outline of a new process to draft – once again – a constitutional proposal. The details still need to be hammered out, especially among senators, but the general agreement consists of a Committee of Experts who wi...

Politics: AMLO’s approval undented by rising discontent with key policies
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022

People remain highly critical of many areas of government policy and yet continue to approve of the job President López Obrador is doing, according to GEA-ISA’s most recent quarterly survey of registered voters. The extent to which job growth has proven surprisingly robust goes a long way to expl...

Russian macro: adapting to regular shocks – Russia’s new reality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2022

The Russian economy once again proved that it is quite resilient to shocks as the GDP contraction this year appears less significant than the broad consensus expected right after the start of the special military operation. The country’s authorities recently mentioned that GDP could contract by 2...

Projections for 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Dec 2022

Before presenting the projections for 2023 (there’s no way to estimate numbers for 2024 with any security), we express two caveats. First, the GDP gap is still significantly positive (with the unemployment rate below the NAIRU), and this might require keeping the SELIC rate at 13.75% throughout 2...

Economics: Despite the multi-year fall in construction activity, a new footing is unlikely in the near term
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022

GDP results for the third quarter came in stronger than analysts had anticipated largely owing to a considerable expansion of services and an extension of manufacturing’s positive trend as some of the highest-value-added branches posted improved numbers. However, the construction industry remains...

Lessons from the Transition PEC and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2022

President-elect Lula (PT) will be confirmed today, December 12. New members of the ministry team will be announced. The House begins the analysis of the Transition PEC. This is the last week of sessions in the plenary of the STF before the recess, which begins on December 20. Ministers of the STF...

Putin cancels his annual press conference
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022

On December 12 the president's spokesman made the announcement. He has not cancelled it for 10 years. No explanation was given. A Russian business newspaper RBK said a Kremlin source said that the reason was probably the Ukraine War. Putin usually speaks to the public for hours. These were once b...

Government submits bill to authorize debt contracting for 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022 · 1 response

The Executive Branch submitted to the National Congress a bill that authorizes it to contract the debt required to finance the 2023 public budget. The contract would be up to an amount of DOP363.3 b (USD6.58 b). The authorization contemplates the possibility of making the placement, partial or to...

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