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US and EU ambassadors leave Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

On September 4 the two ambassadors departed, having finished their terms there. The US Ambassador has now retired. A US charge d'affaires will be running the embassy until a new ambassador is in post. Despite relations being their worst since the 1980s, the US has no intention of breaking off dip...

What a mess...
TURKEY · Report · 04 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

The process of unraveling in AKP picked up a notch, as ex-gladio and fugitive mafia leader Sedat Peker returned to the social media limelight with ground-breaking bribery revelations. Why the UAE permitted him to tweet again is a question with important political implications, which we cover in t...

The cancellation of non-tradeable bonds should support tradeable assets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2022

Non-tradeable bond issuance will cease on the 1st of October. • Although this will require higher tradeable bond issuance (an additional 35bn annual) in order to meet fiscal financing requirements, the current positive fiscal situation (currently a surplus) will support low issuance. • Domestic d...

Gazprom cuts off gas to the EU indefinitely
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2022

On September 2 the Russian state gas company said that the gas pipeline to Germany will not reopen on September 3. Gazprom claimed that the additional delay before reopening is due to oil leaks. The 3-day shutdown was due to a need to repair a turbine. On September 2 the Kremlin said that Nord St...

Chinese payments system cuts off Russian banks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2022

On September 2 the Russian news site RBC reported that UnionPay is no longer accepting Russian bank cards because UnionPay is worried about secondary sanctions. UnionPay has not made any official statement. Many Russians had obtained UnionPay cards after Visa and Mastercard left Russia. UnionPay ...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s fiscal deficit eased in 2021, Bahrain’s record Q2 current surplus, violence in Iraq & Libya threatens oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected. * OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4. * There were...

Playing LEGO with Colombian security
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A la Obama or Trump, Gustavo Petro initiated his presidency with apparent use of executive orders. They don’t even need to be written down -- just uttered into the presidential microphone, in any meeting, before any small population, at any time of day. In most instances, the new approach comes t...

Petrobras will reduce the price of gasoline today, a series of good economic indicators may improve Bolsonaro’s popularity, and demonstrations in support of Bolsonaro have been scheduled for next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2022

Petrobras will reduce the price of a liter of gasoline at its refineries by 7%. As a result, the average price of gasoline for distributors will decline from R$ 3.53 to R$ 3.28 per liter. President Jair Bolsonaro said that if he needs to appoint an eighth president of Petrobras, he will. He said ...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2022

* The Ukraine War continues, with neither side making much progress and bombardments decreasing. * Western military and financial aid to Ukraine is lessening. * Russia has reduced energy sales to the EU and increased them to China. * The Black Sea Grain Initiative is working smoothly, allo...

Economy minister Nagy stole the day in the local media yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2022

Mr. Nagy, lately the government cabinet member to announce bad news, formerly vice governor of the MNB, spoke on the role and the likely future of administrative price controls on the radio the day before yesterday. Essentially, he said that administrative price caps (on fuels and basic food item...

Chairman of Russian oil company dies from falling out of the window
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2022

On September 1 the Chairman of LUKoil fell from the window of a Moscow hospital. It is not known what Ravil Maganov was in the elite hospital for.Earlier in 2022 another top LUKoil executive died in suspicious circumstances. He was Alexander Subbotin.LUKoil said in March 2022 that the Ukraine War...

Armenia seems to be helping Russia evade sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Russia has tried to get around sanctions through parallel imports. Armenia has recorded a 50% YoY increase in trade with Russia in Q1 and Q2 2022. Russia has always been by far its biggest trade partner. In that same time Armenian manufacturing has grown only 2.7%. It is suspected by Western dipl...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Aug 22 CPC: The company has suspended the operation of two of the three remote berthing devices at the marine terminal due to damage Aug 23 Agriculture Ministry: Kazakhstan expects grain harvest in 2022 at the level of 18.3 mln tons (vs 16.4 mln tons in FY 2021) Sberbank: The bank announced that ...

The 2023 Federal Budget was submitted to Congress yesterday, a special secretary for the Treasury and Budget of the Ministry of Economy called for a reformulation of the Federal Budget system, and a presidential poll will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2022

The Budget bill provides for an average Auxílio Brasil payment of R$ 405 for 21.6 million families. The total amount reserved for this purpose is R$ 105.7 billion. Polls indicate that some voters are not convinced that President Jair Bolsonaro will keep the payments at R$ 600 next year. The R$ 60...

Russia’s deflation holds for another week and m-o-m deflation in August could be around 0.6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 29, consumer prices fell by 0.16% w-o-w. The MTD deflation reached 0.54%. It brought down the YTD inflation to 10.38%. In recent weeks deflation was caused primarily by seasonally falling fresh fruit and vegetable prices. Though some other food...

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