GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Monetary Council's decision was to reduce the sterilisation rate, which is the O/N deposit rate, by 100 bps to 17%, after keeping it unchanged at 18% since October 14 last year. The repo rate, which is the ceiling for the MNB's interest rate corridor, was reduced accordingly, by 100 bps to 19...

The South African business environment in 2023

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 May 2023

Following the post Covid-19 economic recovery, the South African economy and its corporations are facing a slew of challenges, both new and long-standing—with policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages being the most prominent of the latter. These have led to low business confidence, wit...

Two recent difficulties in macroeconomic policy

INDIA · Report · 23 May 2023

The RBI has announced that Rs.2000 currency notes would be gradually withdrawn. The announcement features lead time and is not disruptive in the way that the famous "demonetization" announcement of 2016 was. But it provokes unhappy memories of demonetization. Alongside this, a story has been p...

Alleged Ukrainians attack into Russia, Ukraine denies involvement

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2023 · 1 response

On May 22 fighters crossed from Ukraine into Russia. A group called Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) claims to have carried out the attack. They are anti-Putin Russians who are fighting on Ukraine's side. Ukraine denies attacking inside Russia. FRL attacked an FSB (domestic intelligence) and an Int...

Effects of the Fiscal-Monetary Conflict

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2023

Whether measured by the one-year ex-ante real interest rate or by our financial conditions index, monetary policy is more restrictive than during the recession of 2014-16. Nevertheless, the economic activity data for the first quarter of 2023 show that the economy, at least until then, was recove...

Rates up 0.25% to 4.75%

ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2023

Policy rates increased today by 0.25% to 4.75%, in line with consensus. Inflation remains high and broad-based, core inflation has accelerated, but the BoI is looking at the annual rate of inflation in the past 6 months and 3 months and notes moderation (3.9% rate for the last three months, and d...

The House should vote on Deputy Cajado’s report on the new fiscal framework, the Senate is expected to vote on provisional measures this week, and the CPIs are expected to define their work schedules

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2023

The House will likely vote on Deputy Claudio Cajado's (PP-BA) report on Tuesday, May 23, or Wednesday, May 24. To be approved, the text needs the support of at least 257 deputies. Last week, the urgent status of the bill was approved by 367 votes in favor and 102 against. The Senate will vote on ...

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today

ISRAEL · Report · 22 May 2023

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, with 4.75% likely to be the terminal rate. 2. Tightening will be supported by higher core inflation, a tight labor market and fairly steady growth (although with growth pessimism). 3. A sharper hike of 0.5% cannot be ruled out, but the MPC will most ...

Russia claims to have taken Bakhmut

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2023

On May 20 the head of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin said his fighters have control of the city. The Russian Army confirmed this. They have been fighting there since August 2022. Wagner Group said they had stopped taking prisoners. Wagner said it would hand the city over to the Russian Army on Ma...

We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, but a 0.5% hike cannot be ruled out

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 May 2023

We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, but cannot rule out 0.5% Nevertheless, the MPC will most likely also discuss a sharper hike of 0.5% (most likely a minority view). Most macro factors support further tightening: May’s upward inflation surprise, acceleration in core inflation, tight labor mark...

China announces plan to develop Central Asia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2023

On May 19 President Xi said that China will help Central Asia with infrastructure, security and defense. He said he wants to improve trade. Xi was speaking at a summit for China and Central Asian countries. Xi said it would be a gain for all the countries involved. Central Asia is Kazakhstan, Kyr...

Russia losing scientists

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2023

On May 18 the vice-president of the Russian Academy of Sciences said that 50,000 scientists have left the country since 2018. He said that the government's policy of technological sovereignty is unachievable while the country is hemorrhaging highly educated scientists. He said that funding for re...

G7 Summit: Zelensky attends and more sanctions on Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2023

On May 19 the Group of the seven most industrialized economies met in Japan. The sanctions will hit Russian diamonds. Russia sells at least USD 4 billion in diamonds each year. The G7 will probably not ban the purchase of all Russian diamonds. Belgium is a major buyer, with Antwerp's being one o...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary (Kazakhstan+)

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 May 2023

May 5 Azerbaijan: Gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Italy via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) increased in 1Q23 by 6.3% y-o-y to 2.4 bcm May 8 Uzbekistan: Early presidential elections are scheduled for June 9. May 10 Georgia: The country imported 41K tons of wheat in 1Q23 (+22.3% y-o-y) Georgia: ...

Kazan Forum opens

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2023

On May 18 the economic forum opened for its 14th year. 15,000 people have registered to come and they belong to 85 countries. That is fewer than before. Kazan is the capital of the Tatarstan Republic. It is the homeland of an indigenous Muslim ethnic minority, the Tatars. The forum is its Muslim ...