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The elected government is having trouble moving forward with the Transition PEC, 10 more ministers of the STF must vote on the rapporteur’s amendments case, and the bill to amend the state-owned company law may be put to a vote in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2022

At the moment, the government does not have the 308 votes needed to approve the PEC. The most controversial points — the value of R$ 168 billion and the 2-year term — continue to be problematic for legislators. The judgment of the rapporteur's amendments (RP-9) in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) ...

Stabilization at risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2022

Monthly inflation for November jumped to 19.0 percent from 6.0 percent as a direct consequence of a 45.6 percent rise in the dollar against the bolivar. This bolivar plunge is the deepest seen so far this year. Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) foreign exchange interv...

Ekrem Imamoglu banned from politics, pending appeals
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022 · 1 response

IMPORTANT NOTICE OF ABSENCE: I shall be off the grid between 15 December and 6 January for family arrangements. I may not be able to respond to client inquiries in the interim. Pls contact GSP NYC office of Dr Murat Ucer’s Istanbul office in case of emergencies. An Istanbul court convicted Istanb...

Russia evades computer sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

On December 13 Reuters published a report showing that Russia has obtained USD 2.6 billion worth of IT components and electronics despite Western sanctions. Reuters and the Royal United Service Institute learnt this from an analysis of published Russian Customs Service data. Semiconductors were i...

Belarus carries out combat readiness inspections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

On December 13 Belarus announced the move. Ukraine is keeping an eye on the situation. It could be that Belarus is worrying Ukraine in order to oblige Ukrainians to guard their northern frontier and thereby take the pressure off the Russians in the east. Belarus did this earlier in 2022. Civilian...

The Transition PEC may be put to a vote in the House this week, the STF will resume the trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments today, and Lula announced new members of his future government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2022

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, and the rapporteur of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil-BA), have signaled that the proposal may be put to a vote this Wednesday or Thursday. The biggest concern is about changes in the text. If the Hous...

2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022

Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...

A closer look at the Maharlika fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

Last Friday, after over a week of intense public debate about the rationale and sources of funds of a congressional initiative to set up a sovereign wealth fund, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno stepped up to own the proposal. In a press briefing, he read a statement signed by the core members o...

Turkey resolves Russian tanker dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

On December 13 Turkey said that the Western oil price cap will no longer prevent tankers sailing through the Turkish waters from the Black Sea to the Aegean. 20 tankers were anchored in the Black Sea as Turkey said they could not come through until they proved that they had insurance. Turkey is w...

The Kazakh economy was stable in November
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

The country’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 11M22, the monthly short-term indicator (a proxy for overall economic activity) was up by 3.2% y-o-y, which was slightly better than in 10M22 (3.1%). The industry was up by 1.4% y-o-y over the same cumulative period. Such sectors as con...

The Russian budget is still in surplus in 11M22 as massive spending is due in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending was moderate in November (R2.2 trillion) and was on par with volumes seen in the previous months. In 11M22, the government spent R24.2 trillion, while the amended 2022 budget assumed expenditures of around R29.0 trillion. Even thou...

Lula and Alckmin were confirmed by the TSE yesterday, the Transition PEC may be approved in the House this week, and the STF will resume the trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2022

President Lula was confirmed yesterday by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). There were some protests in Brasilia with buses and cars set on fire. As we had warned, some events could occur, but there is no risk of them becoming something more serious or consistent. The PEC has a chance of being ...

Cosmic forecasts from the dark side
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2022

For the last piece of the outgoing year, the third leg of the GSP Turkey team, Cosmic Strategist steps in for the Politics Author, who is currently –allegedly-- driving a ‘78 Dodge Aspen somewhere on Route 66 “to reconnect with his past”. Cosmo is an extremely revolutionary and controversial t...

Deal has been reached on EU funds, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

Pretty much in the last minute before the EU Summit of December 15, EU member states managed to agree last night on a compromise package of measures with Hungary. As part of this: - Hungary agreed to step back from its intended veto on a common borrowing action to back EU financial assistance to ...

Chile's Constitutional Process 2.0
CHILE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022

After three months of negotiation, the parties in Congress have agreed on the basic outline of a new process to draft – once again – a constitutional proposal. The details still need to be hammered out, especially among senators, but the general agreement consists of a Committee of Experts who wi...

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