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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tax revenues decline in November, but level remains high
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Dec 2022

Tax revenues on a downward trend In November, the fiscal deficit reached 1.2bn ILS (0.5bn last year), and the fiscal surplus in the last 12 months reached 0.4% GDP (0.5% last month). Tax revenues are up by 14.8% y/y (nominal) in January-November while expenditures (non-Covid) are up 5.6% compared...

Indian PM cancels summit with Russia: Bloomberg
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2022

On December 9 it was announced that the summit has been called off the annual Russia India Summit. The rumor is that this is because of Putin's rhetoric on nuclear weapons use in Ukraine. Bloomberg said it has an unnamed Indian Government source. India does not wish to be perceived as unduly pro-...

GULF WEEKLY: Xi visits Riyadh, MBZ visits Doha, OPEC+ maintains quotas, Saudi & Dubai budgets
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its cuts but oil still dropped -10% this week to the lowest since 2021. * Changes made to Moody’s credit rating methodology are supportive of ratings for most Gulf states. * The UAE’s president made a sur...

Reassessing the odds of a pre-election “currency event”
TURKEY · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Since early this year one of the very key questions we’ve been focusing on has been the likelihood of another market turmoil à la December 2021 — or another “currency event”, so to speak — before the upcoming elections. As we approach the end of 2022, we thought it would be useful to offer a retr...

Peru Political Crisis - What's Next?
PERU · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 2 responses

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne as he discusses the ousting of Pedro Castillo as President after his attempt to dissolve Congress and what's next for Peru under newly sworn-in President Dina Boluarte.

Current account historically strong in 9M22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2022

The Central Bank reported the current account continued to grow in 3Q22, albeit this surplus in 3Q22 was not as wide as in 2Q22 and 1Q22 – just $51.2bn versus ($76.7bn and $69.8bn accordingly). In 9M22, the current account surplus reached $225.7bn and is likely to widen to $270bn and possibly eve...

Lula will announce some of the members of his ministerial team, the Transition PEC will begin analysis in the House next week, and Lula’s confirmation ceremony will be held on Monday, December 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2022

Five names are expected to be announced today. According to Aloizio Mercadante, after the announcement, the ministers will start giving interviews and will reveal the structure of their ministries. Next week, the Transition PEC will begin its analysis process in the House. The PEC approved by the...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Dec 2022

Nov 25 US: According to US Ambassador to the country, Mr. Rosenblum, the United States is actively cooperating with Kazakhstan in the search for alternative routes for oil exports from the republic Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development: Kazakhstan has worked out the opening of the t...

Another positive development as South Africa’s current account deficit narrows in Q3 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2022

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2022, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R107 billion in the second quarter to R18.1 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit narrowed from 1....

The Senate approved the Transition PEC, the STF postponed the vote on the rapporteur’s amendments cases to next week, and Lula’s confirmation ceremony will be held on Monday, December 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2022

The Senate approved the Transition PEC as submitted by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The amount of R$ 168 billion was maintained for a period of two years. If the value of R$ 145 billion is changed in the House, the text will have to return to the Senate for further analysis. The ...

Russia releases US basketball player
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

On December 8 Brittney Griner was freed as part of a prisoner exchange. She was arrested in February 2022 for possessing medical cannabis with a prescription. Russia does not recognize the legal validity of such prescriptions and gave her 9 years in jail. There are unconfirmed reports that the US...

CPI-inflation in November: would no negative surprise be a surprise now?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

Monthly CPI-inflation data have kept surprising analysts on the negative side lately. And so it happened in November as well. The yoy headline rate rose to 22.5% from the 21.1% reported in October, whereas analysts expected only 22%. Once again, the main driver was food, where prices rose by an a...

Tax revenues decline in November but fiscal surplus maintained YTD
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

November’s fiscal deficit was 1.2bn ILS (compared to 0.5bn in Nov 21), and the fiscal surplus reached 0.4% GDP in the last 12 months. Since the beginning of the year the fiscal surplus reached 28.9bn ILS. Tax revenues are up 14.8% y/y in Jan-Nov while non-Covid expenditure rose a modest 5.6%. Reg...

SAUDI ARABIA: Budget assumes oil around $75 and shows spending discipline in some key areas
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

The budget was released this evening (MoF), which largely reflects the headline figures from the pre-budget statement and anticipates a surplus of 0.4% of GDP, down from the estimated 2.6% this year. We will include more analysis in the weekly report on Friday and all the data will be added to th...

Secret opinion poll shows Russians support the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Polls in Russian run by the Levada Center and the state run VTsIOM show that around 75% of people are pro-war. Putin is keen to know the state of public opinion. Crafting it through media control is his obsession. On December 6 the Moscow Times claimed to have gained a copy of unpublished statist...

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