GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Although economic activity growth in February 2023 (at 1.8% y/y) was higher than in January 2023 (at 0.4% y/y), the economy has undoubtedly entered a path of lower growth, which may intensify if international economic conditions deteriorate. Even the authorities have recognized the possibility of...

Will this year’s “consumption revival” disappoint?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Apr 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * GDP in the first quarter of 2023 grew a better-than-expected 4.5 percent year on year, or 2.2 percent month on month. While we have almost certainly seen some rebalancing in the month of March, with consumption growing faster than GDP, it is still ...

Caution Is in Order Regarding Cutting the Interest Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Last week, bets grew about an early start of the monetary easing cycle, before the end of the second quarter. The optimism was not due to the quality of the fiscal framework announced by the government, but rather to the deceleration of the 12-month rate of the IPCA to 4.6% (5.6% a month ago). In...

The Ministry of Finance in the next 100 days and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2023

The government should finally submit the new fiscal framework to Congress. Proposals aimed at increasing revenue should also be submitted, as well as the new framework for PPPs. Congress reviews presidential vetoes. The holiday on Friday, April 21, reduces legislative activity. This week's Tal...

Politics: Poll shows success of the fight against Plan B, which suffers setbacks as new INE councilors assume their posts

MEXICO · Report · 17 Apr 2023

One of the most significant aspects of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of registered voters was that it showed the extent to which the efforts of the INE under former Institute President Lorenzo Cordova, civic organizations and opposition parties have succeeded in winning over the vast majori...

Initial signs of inflation moderation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2023

Inflation in March points to some initial inflation moderation Inflation in March was up 0.4% (below market expectations of 0.5%). Core inflation remained stable at 5.1% y/y, similar to the pace in January and February. Several categories moderated, such as housing rentals (from 6.8% y/y to 6.7%)...

One conflict solved, one created

HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2023

As we pointed out in our latest report last week, Hungary has a number of bad conflicts with the western world in these days. Over the last few days, one of these was largely sorted out, but another one was just newly created. For the first one, Hungary has just decided to leave the International...

Everything, everywhere, all up in the air

TURKEY · Report · 16 Apr 2023 · 2 responses

The politics author’s strong conviction about a Kilicdaroglu victory in the presidential ballot is confirmed by more data, but the parliamentary race is up in the air -- and could go either way at this juncture, in terms of the number of seats the alliances might score. Worse, the uncertainty abo...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

The government discusses the sanitation legal framework, the new fiscal framework should be submitted to Congress next week, and Congress is expected to analyze presidential vetoes next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2023

Lira stated that Congress has been discussing changes with the government about the decree that modified the sanitation legal framework in order to avoid more drastic measures, such as voting on a bill to suspend the effects of the norm. Lira said he expects to put the new fiscal framework to a v...

Russia will digitize its military draft system

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

On April 11 Russia's parliament voted to streamline the system of calling men up for the military. This bill adds to the rumors that Russia is planning a new wave of conscription. Russian males usually do a year of military training at the age of 18. Wartime conscription is mostly about calling b...

The submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed to April 17, deputies are upset that the government issued a decree on the sanitation framework bypassing Congressional input, and Campos Neto should go the CAE on April 25

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

Once again, the submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed. According to the president of the Joint Budget Committee (CMO), Senator Daniella Ribeiro (PSD-PB), the bill is now expected to be submitted next Monday, April 17, after the return of Finance Minister Haddad from his trip to Chi...

CPI-inflation for March out: further 'patience' from the MNB will be required

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

Well, the CPI-inflation data for March, reported this morning, was just awful. For sure, the headline rate fell a little further, to 25.2% yoy, from 25.4% yoy in February, making March the second consecutive month with a decrease, from the peak 25.7% yoy in January. It is also true that in its la...

Azerbaijan expels 4 Iranian diplomats amid assassination claims

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

On April 6 Azerbaijan made the move. It has accused the diplomats of spying and gave them 48 hours to leave. Azerbaijan arrested 6 of its own citizens that day and said that they had conspired to overthrow the government and establish a theocracy. Iran is a shariat state whereas Azerbaijan is sec...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks. * The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar. * Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the I...