GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points- somewhat unexpectedly. This comes after the Bank had slowed its rate of increase to 25 bps in January of the current year following...

Bread for today, hunger for tomorrow

COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Petro administration’s new pension bill is potentially game-changing: fewer than 30% of Colombians of retirement age and beyond currently have access to old-age protection. Reform would generate massive movements of people and money, & create considerable fiscal impacts. Under any scenario un...

Haddad discusses the details of the new fiscal framework, and former President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil after three months in the United States

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, has a meeting this morning with the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to present the new fiscal framework. Then, along with the economic team, he will participate in a press conference to discuss the details of the framework. The text wil...

Major foreign grain exporter to stop buying Russian grain

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2023

On March 29 Cargill Russia announced that on July 1, 2023, it will cease the export of grain. Cargill is a major world agricultural commodity trader. The company has informed the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Cargill is due to export 2.2 million tons of grains by July 2023. That is 4% of Russi...

The new fiscal framework may be presented this week, and the conflict in Congress regarding provisional measures continues

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Mar 2023

In a nod to Congress, Lula may ask Haddad to present the text of the new fiscal framework again to the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), in addition to party leaders. In other words, the matter will not necessarily be announced this week. It...

Interest rates unchanged, ending off-market sales of FX to energy importers announced today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

There was no surprise at today's rate-setting Monetary Council meeting: all interest rates, including the 18% sterilisation rate, the 13% base rate and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor remained unchanged, as expected (see chart below). Yet an important change of policy was announced: the selli...

Russia prepares new mobilization

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2023

Russia and the foreign media have reported since March 18 increasing signs of a call-up of military-aged men. In Udmurtia Region the Governor went on TV to convince people that no one will be conscripted but he asked men to volunteer ''to defend the Fatherland.'' In 2022 the conscription and the ...

Lasso's Situation Gets More Complicated

ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

As expected, the Assembly submitted to the Constitutional Court the petition to initiate an impeachment of President Lasso. This petition is based on the report presented by an ad-hoc legislative commission dominated by the opposition, in which Lasso was accused virtually of everything the Const...

A lull in the storm

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Netanyahu announced on March 26 that the legislation (second and third Parliamentary votes) geared towards changing the judicial system will be postponed until the summer Parliament session in order to try to reach a broadly acceptable compromise. The opposition generally supported this move (alt...

Solid budgetary performance in 2M23

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M23, the country’s consolidated budget was in surplus equal to KZT695 bn, i.e., slightly above $1.5bn. This budget incorporates the Republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and state social funds (net of mutual transfers). Revenues of the...

President Lula canceled his trip to China, and former President Bolsonaro is expected to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

For health reasons, President Lula canceled his trip to China this week. The trip may take place in May. Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is due to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30. Bolsonaro traveled to the United States on December 30 last year to avoid handing over the presidential s...

Macro thoughts: take two

TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Mar 2023

We take stock of the political landscape, update our thoughts on the macroeconomic outlook for this year, and take a quick glance at the next. The pressures in the currency market continue unabated, as attested to by myriad interventions and controls, but the likelihood of a pre-election ‘curr...

Still no rate cut is likely at the March 28 Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

Predicting the outcome of the March 28 rate-setting meeting, when the MNB's Q1 inflation report is also due to be discussed, appeared quite easy around the middle of this month. By that time, the forint had depreciated to around EURHUF 395, at which level any reduction of the sterilisation rate l...

Putin says he will place nuclear weapons on Belarus

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

On March 25 Putin made the announcement. He claimed that this was nothing out of the ordinary. He added that Russia would send depleted uranium ammunition to be used in Ukraine if Ukraine received depleted uranium. On March 24 the UK said it might provide depleted uranium shells to Ukraine becaus...

Guatemala confronts a less dynamic year.

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2023

Guatemala´s economy faced several challenges in 2022, such as high domestic inflation, less favorable external conditions and high interest rates. The economy nonetheless recorded strong growth, good external accounts and stability in fiscal figures and in the financial sector. Guatemala´s econom...