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Politics: Dueling marches mark a new unofficial start to the 2024 presidential contest
MEXICO · Report · 05 Dec 2022

President López Obrador’s mass march in Mexico City November 27 was ostensibly to celebrate his fourth year in government and to help in gauge whether "the people are happy" with his supposedly transformative governing project. In reality, it was his response to the November 13 citizens' march in...

Economics: The AMLO government continues to pursue inefficient and costly policies on important fronts
MEXICO · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The programs prioritized by the current government have performed poorly according to multiple evaluations, including those of the public agency Coneval and the most recent INDEP tool for evaluating the effectiveness of social-development-related public programs that has been produced for several...

GDP is Decelerating, but the Labor Market Indicates a Narrow or Positive Gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The GDP result for the third quarter confirmed what was suggested by other indicators: the deceleration of growth is under way. After a brief analysis of the contributions of the forces acting on the supply and demand sides, and the signs sent by other indicators, we focus here on the evidence fr...

Can the number of demonstrations increase and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The Senate begins the analysis of the Transition PEC. The PL caucus will decide who will run for the Senate presidency in February. The most likely candidate is former Minister Rogério Marinho. The Copom holds its final meeting of the year to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic). In the Judi...

Explosions at Russian air bases
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2022

On December 5 there were explosions at 2 Russian air bases hundreds of km from the Ukrainian Border. At least 3 people have been killed and it was claimed that 2 nuclear capable bombers were damaged. The Defense Ministry has neither confirmed nor denied the report. The Astra Telegram news channel...

Fuel shortage has become serious, subsidised fuel prices will likely have to go
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2022

By last night, about a quarter of domestic petrol stations has run out of petrol and diesel, and the situation is threatening to get even worse. We have had this coming for a while. MOL, currently the only wholesaler of fuel in Hungary, has been saying for several months that its capacities are o...

The Transition PEC should be put to a vote in the Senate this week, the PL may launch Rogério Marinho’s candidacy for the presidency of the Senate, and the Copom will meet to decide on the Selic
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The report on the Transition PEC may be presented to the Committee tomorrow, December 6. Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco scheduled the vote in the Plenary for Wednesday, December 7. According to the leader of the PL, Senator Carlos Portinho (RJ), the most likely candidate for the presidency of t...

Recent indicators point to steady growth and PC demand
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Dec 2022

* Recent economic indicators point to steady growth, including private consumption, as well as hi-tech service exports. * The BoI revision of the Composite Index of the economy points to “continued growth of the economy”. * If this trend continues and November’s CPI does not surprise on ...

Inflation peaks, where to now?
TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2022

Consumer prices increased by 2.9%, m/m, in November, broadly in line with forecasts (consensus as well as ours), with the 12-month rate thus easing -- for the first time since May 2021 -- to 84.4%, from 85.5% in October. The PPI inflation recorded its lowest monthly reading in 29 months, rising b...

Russia Nobel Prize winner says Ukraine War cannot end by talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2022

The laureates said at an awards ceremony in Germany that the war could not end through diplomacy whilst Putin is in office. Irina Scherbakova was the co-founder of the Russian human rights organization Memorial. But after Putin is gone there will be a negotiated peace she said but that requires U...

Recent indicators point to steady growth and PC demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Dec 2022

Recent indicators have been positive In August-October, credit card purchases (real) increased by 4.1% saar (trend data) following growth of 3.5% in the previous three months. Initial real-time data (through 21.11) point to growth of 2.5%-3% m/m in November. In the past three months, chains store...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded + Bahrain positive outlook, Abu Dhabi GDP, PIF $17bn loan, Qatar-Germany LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain quota levels next week, although a cut is possible. * Inflation has eased to 4.0% in the GCC, the lowest since May, with rent replacing food as the main driver. * PIF secured a $17bn 7...

Peru: Castillo at the edge
PERU · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

Yesterday was a bad day for President Pedro Castillo and the odds that he is ousted in the next six months are high. For once, Congress approved the third impeachment motion with 73 votes in favor, 32 against and 6 abstentions. Although Congress needs 87 votes to oust him, the opposition believes...

The deadline for the Transition PEC should be one or two years at the most and the value will not exceed R$ 130 billion, the STF approved the Lifetime Review yesterday, and the Transition PEC is expected to be approved in the Senate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2022

President Lula's presence in Brasilia helped guide the political agreement around the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). He is expected to speak to the press today around 11:30 a.m. In addition to the PEC, he will likely be asked about the ministerial team. Yesterday, by 6 votes ...

Ukraine to restrict religious groups linked to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

On December 1 Zelensky said his government would proscribe activities by religious organizations connected to Russia. A Kremlin-funded monastery in Kyiv was suspected of spying for Russia. Zelensky said that the security services believe that Russian subversion is carried on through religious bod...

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