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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The short-term and medium-term outlook for export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 21 Jul 2022

During the pandemic, Developed Markets consumers supported the world economy by buying more goods, and there was a great export boom in India. This export boom is likely to subside, given the combination of DM fiscal policy normalization, monetary tightening, and DM consumers' rotating away from ...

Manufacturing activity remains fairly strong on domestic demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jul 2022

The PMI increased in June by 0.8 points to 53.4 points, moving higher for the third straight month. The domestic orders component increased by 6.4 points to 58.5 (strong expansion) while export orders declined by 4 points to 49.7 (no growth). The production component increased to 57.2 points whil...

Putin in Iran and meets Turkish President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2022

On July 19 Putin flew to Teheran and met the leaders of Iran and Turkey.  Turkey is the NATO country with the best relationship with Russia. This is due to economic ties but also the need to prevent Russia from being too helpful Armenia. Putin discussed allowing Ukrainian grain to be shipped out ...

Some in the MDB are trying to postpone the party’s convention, Jair Bolsonaro’s meeting with ambassadors is still causing repercussions, and Petrobras announced a drop in fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2022

The MDB party convention is scheduled for July 27 and will be held virtually. The pro-Lula wing has claimed that support for the PT’s candidacy would be a way to avoid institutional conflict given President Jair Bolsonaro’s criticism of the electronic voting machines. The goal is to postpone it t...

Still no improvement in China’s economic performance
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jul 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 came in well below already-low expectations. GDP was up in real terms by just 0.4 percent relative to GDP in the second quarter of 2021, and it was down 2.6 percent relative to GDP in the first quarter of 20...

The end of the Jamaica bid (for now)
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 19 Jul 2022

The recent collapse of the near 22-year-old support for the Jamaican yield curve from Jamaican buyers, or the so called "Jamaica bid", is worthy of a detailed overview on its own. The timeline really begins with the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) beginning its interest rate tightening cycle in the second ...

New Russian pipeline to cross Mongolia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2022

On July 19 the Prime Minister of Mongolia said that the natural gas pipeline will go to China. It is the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline. Russian gas that used to be sold to the EU is being redirected to China. The pipeline is projected to be completed in 2030. It is doubtful that it will be complete...

Kazakhstan seeks to attract businesses that have left Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2022 · 1 response

On July 14 the President of Kazakhstan said his country wishes to welcome hundreds of Western businesses that have left Russia to set up in his country. Moscow will not like this. Kazakhstan is in the CSTO and the Eurasian Union, which are both Russian led. The country has refused to recognize Lu...

Bolsonaro criticized electronic voting machines at a meeting with ambassadors, the Novo party filed a lawsuit against the Social Benefits Constitutional Amendment, and Senator Simone Tebet suffered yet another setback
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2022

Bolsonaro brought known arguments against the machines and said Ministers Edson Fachin, Alexandre de Moraes and Luis Roberto Barroso lack neutrality. Minister Fachin, as well as candidates for the presidency criticized President Jair Bolsonaro’s statements. The STF is in recess, and a date for a ...

Kazakhstan macro: Driving smart over a bumpy road
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Jul 2022

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H22, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP, which incorporates activity in industry, transport, agriculture, construction, trade, and communications) was up by 4.5% y-o-y. Overall, the figure doesn't look too bad amid the still stron...

Economics: Weakening of development banks poses risks for public finance and the banking system
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2022

Mexico’s development banks are of particular interest in what is unquestionably a highly complicated economic and financial panorama. At the end of 2021, total development bank loan portfolios totaled 1.05 trillion pesos, in real terms, 12.5% below levels of December 2018. Between 2018 and 2021 ...

Fiscal Fragility and Concern Over the Road Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

In the past 30 days, the Real has weakened from R$5.10/US$ to R$5.40/US$, once again placing it among the currencies that have depreciated the most in relation to the dollar. At the same time, the 10 year Brazilian CDS quotes – a traditional risk measure – have surpassed 400 points. Since the cou...

Politics: AMLO´s visit to Washington has little to show
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2022

When President López Obrador announced plans for an official work trip to Washington after he shunned President Biden’s Summit of the Americas, it wasn’t immediately clear exactly what officials in both countries expected to accomplish. No specific agenda was ever announced, and a US official was...

Why Lula wants to avoid a second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

On Monday, Bolsonaro has a meeting with foreign ambassadors to discuss electronic voting machines. On Wednesday, July 20, the party convention period begins. The PDT, PT and PL conventions will be held on July 20, 21 and 24, respectively. Two polls on the presidential election (PoderData and Exam...

Zelensky fires two top officials as Russia targets HIMARS
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Zelensky fired his security chief and prosecutor general. He said 650 people are suspected of treason and 60 officials in the Russian occupied zone are working for Russia. The firings are indicative of disarray in the Ukrainian government. How do they see their future in view of the wa...

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