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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Is inflation still accelerating? Well, it depends...
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

Looking at CPI data, the answer is a clear YES. But looking at producer prices, the answer must be much more like a clear NO. Given sharply weakening consumer demand and the close to spectacularly strengthening currency, the latter seems to be more logical. But there is still a good amount of pen...

Zelensky hails arms package
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2023

On January 7 the Ukrainian President applauded Western countries for unprecedented arms shipments. The US is going to send Bradley armored fighting vehicles that destroy tanks as well as anti-aircraft missiles, drones, rockets, howitzers and high precision weapons. On January 6 the US announced t...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai lifts alcohol tax, FAB mooted buying StanChart, Oman’s detailed budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 this week on global recession fears. * The GCC had 5/10 most active SWFs in 2022, boosting investments in major deals by 88% y/y. * The UAE called a UN meeting over a controversial holy site visit by ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Jan 2023

Dec 27 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development: Kazakhstan intends to attract $874 mln from international financial organizations for the construction of treatment facilities Dec 28 Parliament: Kazakhstan introduces digital mining licensing Samruk-Kazyna: Rosatom has several advantage...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023

* Russia bombards Ukraine’s infrastructure but suffers its biggest single military loss in the Makiivka strike. * Fighting remains intense around Bakhmut, something of a center of the war in Ukraine. * Zelensky took a trip to the US and was told Ukraine will receive Patriots....

Putin willing to talk peace in return for land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2023

On January 5 the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the president is open to negotiations with Ukraine if Ukraine cedes the regions that Russia has seized. The statement came as part of the record of what Putin said in a phone call with his Turkish equivalent. Turkey wants a ceasefire and this wi...

Putin orders 36-hour ceasefire
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023

On January 5 the Russian President said the ceasefire will be from January 6-7 over Orthodox Christmas. The Patriarch of the Orthodox Church called for a ceasefire, as did the President of Turkey. President Erdogan spoke to Putin on January 5 and suggested that there should be full negotiations. ...

Inflation continues to rise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023 · 1 response

The headline inflation rate inched up from 8% in November to 8.1% in December, below the median analysts’ forecast of 8.3%. Month-on-month (mom) inflation rose 0.3%, weaker than the 0.9% mom increase in the prior two months. The better-than-expected outturn may be traced mainly to the decline in ...

Russia sends hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 4 it was announced on Russian TV that Russian frigates armed with Zircon missiles have been dispatched to the Atlantic. The frigate is the Admiral Gorshkov. Putin is presumably acting tough to deter the West from arming Ukraine and also to distract the Russian public from the recent se...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...

Russia struggling in Bakhmut as casualties mount
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 3 Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Russian TV that fighting in Bakhmut is very difficult. Prigozhin is the head of Wagner Private Military Company. Wagner fights alongside the Russian Army. Prigozhin said that the Ukrainians had built excellent defenses. It is house by house fighting. He did ...

Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries down 45% in 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2023 · 1 response

On January 3 Gazprom released the data. Gas exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was 101 billion cubic meters in 2022. It was 185 bcm in 2021. The CIS is an organization that is open to ex-USSR countries, and most of them have chosen to join. The EU was the principal Gazpr...

Inflation ends the year under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2023

Consumer prices rose by some 1.2% in December, with the 12-month CPI inflation ending the year at under 65% (64.3%), down from 84.4% in November, but markedly higher than 36.1% of end-2021. December CPI print compares rather favorably to the consensus (of around 2.6-2.8%) and our somewhat lower f...

Adios, interim presidency
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023

The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...

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