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On February 14 Ukraine showed footage of several damaged Russian military vehicles in Vuhledar, Ukraine. Beside the vehicles were what appeared to be the corpses of Russian troops. Vuhledar is 150 km from Bakhmut - a city that Russia is determined to take. Russia admits that Ukrainian resistance ...

Monthly headline inflation falls, while core inflation rises

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 15 Feb 2023

Inflation in December 2022 led the Central Bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 8.5% on January 30th, 2023, arguing that the inflationary dynamics had responded to both the monetary restriction program and the subsidies implemented by the government. Although it emphasized sticking to the r...

Robust GDP growth in 2022

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Feb 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 3.2% in 2022 and, in nominal terms, reached KZT101.5 trln ($220.5 bn). Production of goods increased by 3.2% as the manufacturing segment of the industry grew by 3.2%, while mining contracted by 1.0%. The services ...

Head of Wagner said he is behind a troll factory

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2023

On February 14 Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he is behind the Internet Research Agency (IRA) in an interview with a German magazine. He said that the IRA was defensive because of anti-Russian propaganda. He had often denied that he is behind the Internet Research Agency (IRA). The IRA is based in S...

A political impasse; economy falls into recession; BCRP to start cutting rates in Q2

PERU · Report · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

In this analysis we focus on the current political impasse, and its consequences for economic performance and monetary policy. With gridlock in Congress and the body’s related inability to approve early elections, public pressure may play a greater role. We argue that there are four possible outc...

Government allies continue to pressure the BC over interest rates, Roberto Campos Neto should be summoned to Congress after Carnival, and Lula relaunches the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program in Bahia

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2023

The National Directorate of the PT decided to support the summoning of the president of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto, to the National Congress. The party's resolution calling for Campos Neto's summons will be published today. In practice, the summons should only take place after Car...

Friction between the government and the Central Bank and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

The conflict between the government and the Central Bank is likely to continue. The PT directorate will meet on February 13 to discuss inflation and interest rates. Roberto Campos Neto gives an interview on the program Roda Viva. On Thursday, February 16, there will be a meeting of the National M...

Upward revisions for inflation and the exchange rate

VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2023

January 2023 data are telling us that current inflationary dynamics are strong. Inflation for the month reached 29 percent driven by an expansion in primary money in turn fueled by an atypical hike in public spending and weak central bank currency sales. Everyone’s talking about the minimum wa...

This will be a quiet week due to next week’s Carnival holiday, the PT directorate will meet today to discuss interest rates, and Lula will launch several social programs this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2023

This is the week before Carnival and, therefore, a relatively quiet one in Congress. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will meet with party leaders to discuss the distribution of positions in the Permanent Committees of the House. Today there will be a meeting of the National Direc...

Russia is closing in on Bakhmut

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2023

On February 12 the head of Wagner said that his fighters had taken a village a few kilometers from the center of Bakhmut. Ukraine has not denied this. That appears to be confirmatory silence. Bakhmut seems to have more a political rather than a strategic goal. There is rivalry between Wagner and ...

Probability of a 0.5% rate hike next week has increased

ISRAEL · Report · 13 Feb 2023

1. Shekel weakening continues on the back of uncertainty regarding the implications of the planned judicial reforms. 2. If this trend continues this week, a 0.5% rate hike next week will become increasingly likely. 3. We expect a fiscal deficit of 3.7% GDP this year, following a surplus las...

Probability of a 0.5% rate hike next week has increased

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Feb 2023

Uncertainty regarding the judicial reforms continue Last week, the shekel weakened by 3.2% against the dollar and by 1.2% against the Euro. The shekel continued to weaken in the FX option trading yesterday. Several international investment banks and economists have expressed concern regarding the...

The Central bank keeps its key rate unchanged

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

The Central bank announced that the BoD decided to keep the key rate at 7.5%, having quoted that the economic situation currently looks better, and pro-inflationary risks remain relatively high. The CBR estimated that the Russian GDP was down by 2.5% in 2022, which encouraged the regulator to upg...

CPI-inflation above expectation in January, but analysts still believe this may be the cyclical peak

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

January CPI-inflation came out this morning at 2.3% mom, 25.7% yoy, the latter up from 24.5% yoy in December. Core inflation was 1.8% mom, 25.4% yoy, meaning that the year-on-year core rate fell below the headline rate for the first time since last February. Non-fuel inflation was 24.6% yoy, more...

President Lula and allies criticized the BC over the interest rate, the president of the BC will likely go to Congress after Carnival to provide clarification, and President Lula will meet with US Senator Bernie Sanders and President Biden today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2023

This week was marked by pressure and criticism from President Lula, members of the government, and allies in Congress against the Central Bank (BC) over the interest rate level. Roberto Campos Neto is expected to go to the Senate Economic Affairs Committee after Carnival to provide clarification....