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On August 7 Ukraine said a guided bomb hit the center near Kupyansk, in northeast Ukraine, killing 2 people. Ukraine provided photographic evidence. Zelensky said it was a war crime. He said those who did this were beasts and terrorists. If Russia did hit the transfusion center it might have been...

Rapid wage growth likely to keep inflation elevated

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2023

Wages continue to accelerate Initial data for average wages in June, reflect nominal growth of 6.3% y/y (for Israelis only, exc. foreigners), accelerating from 5.4% in May. Wages have accelerated in recent months on the back of a tight labor market, especially in service sectors. This is likely t...

Russian tanker hit by Ukrainian drones according to Russian media

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2023

On August 5 the tanker was allegedly hit in the Kerch Strait. This caused traffic to be stopped on the Kerch Bridge for about 3 hours. The bridge links Crimea to mainland Russia. The chemical tanker SIG did not spill anything due to the drone attack. The tanker is under US sanctions for deliveri...

Petro's son claims illegal funding in presidential campaign; now what?

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

Yesterday, in Nicolás Petro's (NP) trial, the prosecutor said that NP claims that illegal funding reached his father Gustavo Petro's presidential campaign.Could this process end up in Petro's being removed from office?We are not constitutional lawyers, but after doing some consultation, the next ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi records Q2 deficit and extends oil cuts, Qatar provides bridge loan to Argentina, Oman IA posts strong 2022 results

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Aug 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia recorded a small deficit in Q2 but spending growth slowed and non-oil revenue hit a record. * Saudi government deposits, particularly for quasi-government institutions, have fallen sharply. * The Q2 Saudi fla...

President Lula inaugurated the new Minister of Tourism, the Tax Reform text was submitted to the Senate, and the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) is expected to be launched next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2023

Yesterday, President Lula inaugurated the new Minister of Tourism, Celso Sabino (União Brasil-PA). But party leaders made it clear that this does not mean that the Planalto Palace will have the party's unconditional support. The Senate received the Tax Reform text that was approved by the House. ...

Afghan-Kazakh Business Forum

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

On August 4 the forum opened. Kazakhstan officially lists the Taliban as a terrorist organization, despite that the Kazakh Embassy in Kabul has remained open since the Taliban took over. 200 Afghan delegates came to Astana. Afghan-Kazakh trade is worth USD 1 billion per annum. They aim to raise i...

Retail sales may have reached the bottom of the trough in June

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

Just as expected, industrial output and retail sales data for June was not particularly encouraging, to say the least. Industry fell by 0.9% mom and 5.5% yoy, the latter implying -4.9% yoy in Q2, following -3.6% yoy in Q1. The usual pattern of early this year was continued: car manufacturing and ...

Drone attacks on Russian naval base

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

On August 4 Ukrainian sea drones attacked Novorossiysk and were all destroyed, Russia said. This is the first time that Ukraine has attacked a naval base in Russia itself and not Crimea. The local governor said no damage or casualties were sustained. However, a Ukrainian source told Reuters that ...

Topic of the week: What does "longtermism" mean in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Aug 2023 · 1 response

Summertime may be useful for deeper reflections. Your analyst has thus been prompted into a kind of economic-philosophical diversion of thought by William MacAskill’s “What We Owe The Future”, a book that focuses on longtermism and effective altruism. We explore what the idea that positively i...

July inflation eases to 4.7%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Aug 2023

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today continuing downtrend in the headline inflation rate to 4.7% in July from 5.4% in June and a high of 8.7% in January. The headline rate reflects a slowdown in the month-on-month increase in the CPI and is well within the BSP’s 4.1% to 4.9% forecas...

New Mining and Energy Minister could just be more of the same

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023 · 1 response

President Petro has appointed Andrés Camacho as the new Mining and Energy Minister. He replaces Irene Vélez, forced to resign after allegedly abusing her position as Minister to bypass a requirement to let her son leave the country on a trip abroad; Ms. Vélez was heavily criticized throughout her...

The PP and Republicanos continue to press for space in the ministerial team, the Central Bank reduced the basic interest rate by 0.50%, and the Federal Police wants to hear from Bolsonaro about his alleged intention to hack electronic ballot boxes

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2023

The PP and Republicanos are pressing for space on the ministerial team. Even though the government does not want to give up the Ministry of Social Development, which is responsible for the Bolsa Família program, the PP is insisting on it. In any event, the PT will likely lose space on the ministe...

Forget holistic, let's get simplistic

TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near double-digit 9.5% in July over a month ago, “broadly” in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate markedly rising to 47.8% from 38.2% in June, after 8 consecutive months of decline, as myriad factors, most notably currency weakness and tax hikes took their tol...

Tourism and the housing market: further signs of weakness

HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023

Before the June data for industrial output and retail sales, due tomorrow, it may be worthwhile to take a look at two areas of somewhat minor importance: tourism and the housing market. The monthly available indicator for tourism is the number of guests and nights spent at 'touristic accommodati...