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According to Senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), who is the budget's rapporteur and the person who will also report on the PEC in the Senate, the terms of the proposal will be negotiated with party leaders on Wednesday, November 16. He also said that the idea would be to permanently remove the Auxíl...

De-risking and Chinese equities

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

There is pressure, primarily from the U.S. pension and retirement funds, to “de-risk” by reducing the weight of Chinese equities in overall portfolios. The official China data for September 2022 show net portfolio outflows. Future months are likely to show negative growth as de-risking sentiment ...

First impressions from the Beyoglu terror attack

TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2022

On Sunday 4 pm, a bomb exploded in the busy entertainment venue, Beyoglu, killing six and injuring 81. The death toll could increase further. The female suspect was apprehended immediately, after which the police conducted broad raids netting about 80 alleged accomplices. The suspect claims she ...

US holds talks for Armenia and Azerbaijan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2022

On November 8 the two Caucasus nations met in Washington to try to resolve their border dispute. In the past week there has been shooting across the ceasefire line. The US Secretary of State met with representatives of both countries. Privately US officials recognize that a permanent peace is unl...

The federal budget still in surplus in 10M22

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

The Ministry of Finance preliminary reports that the federal budget was in surplus in 10M22 as revenues exceeded R22.1 trln while expenditures were at R22.0 trln. As the ministry stopped publishing detailed fiscal accounts, including adjustments it makes regularly to initial estimates of the budg...

Webinar replay - Colombia: Easier said than done

COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Nov 2022

Get insight into Colombia's macro economic and political outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia: Easier said than done", featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing Colombia's politics and governance, monetary policy, and how the country ...

Ukrainian forces entered Kherson

UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Nov 2022

We have many photos evidencing that Ukrainian forces entered Kherson. Below is the photo of the central square of Kherson with the Ukrainian flag and people gathering with Ukrainian national symbolic. It looks like the main Russian forces indeed have left the west bank of Dnipro river.

Challenges in assembling the new government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

The government transition team will be installed under the coordination of future Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). President-elect Lula (PT) will have meetings with the presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP), the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), and the STF, Rosa Weber. The Transition PEC w...

Russia political/pandemic update: history repeats itself, once again

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Apart from the many unpleasant social, economic, and political effects of the coronavirus pandemic, a few developments gradually affected economic behavior in a rather creative fashion. One of them was that many employers and employees realized that one could do almost the same job without going ...

Industrial producer price inflation decelerates in September, for the first time in the last 12 months

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

Industrial producer prices rose by 1.8% mom, 42.7% yoy in September. The August data was +4.1% mom, +43.4% yoy. One could say that the deceleration was just marginal, as regards the year-on-year data at least. Yet, this was the first time over the last 12 months that a lower yoy number appeared t...

Russia and Iran's relationship deepens

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2022

On November 5 Iran said it sold military drones to Russia but claims that was only before the Russia-Ukraine War began. Western countries have imposed additional sanctions on Iran, claiming that Iran sold drones to Russia in September 2022. Iran and Russia are both suffering from sanctions. They ...

Uncertainty about the Battle of Kherson

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2022

On November 4 Putin said that the civilians still in Kherson are being evacuated. He spoke about the shelling and the intensifying fighting. Putin said that 49,000 of the 318,000 mobilized reservists who were called up in September 2022 have been sent to Ukraine. Open media sources have confirme...

QATAR: S&P upgrades the sovereign back to AA

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Hot on the heels of Moody’s positive outlook on Qatar on Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s has gone one step further and upgraded the sovereign back to AA, its level before all three rating agencies downgraded it by a notch in 2017 for a host of reasons including banking liabilities, the Quartet block...

Habemus tributum

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

After almost two months of discussions, the tax reform of the Petro administration is almost a reality. We say “almost”, because the texts approved by the Senate and the House are not identical, which means that a reconciled version will have to be approved early next week. As we do not expect an...

Spending plan 2023: budget deficit of 20.6% of GDP and huge spending on defense

UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

Yesterday, on November 3nd, Verkhovna Rada approved spending plan 2023. It presumes a deficit of 20.6% of GDP or $30.7 billion. Also the plan defines huge spending on defense on the level of $27 billion or 18.2% of GDP (44% of total budget spending). The approved spending plan tells that the defi...