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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Proposed 2023 budget maintains status quo; growth slowdown looms
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 11 Oct 2022

The 2023 proposed budget incorporates a lower than expected deficit for 2022, but higher than in 2021. With an oil price forecast at $89/b for 2023, the government wants to play it safe, and not risk having to eliminate subsidies and adjust domestic energy prices. Subsidies for electricity and fu...

No inflation surprise, yet the forint is weakening further today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022

September CPI-inflation was reported at 20.1% yoy this morning. This was sharply up from 15.6% yoy in August, but with a well-explained good reason, the most recent energy price reform, and almost exactly matching the MNB's forecast and analysts' median expectation. Yet the forint has got even we...

In the latest IPEC poll Lula has 51% and Bolsonaro 42%, Lula will meet with the economic leaders of the Real Plan, and tomorrow is a federal holiday (Children’s Day)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2022

Yesterday, an IPEC poll on the presidential election was published. Lula has 51% of the intended votes and Bolsonaro with 42%. Considering only valid votes, the PT candidate has 55% and Bolsonaro, 45%. According to information obtained by Arko Advice, the PT campaign has organized a meeting betwe...

Politics: AMLO scores a political victory even as hackers leak massive data breach
MEXICO · Report · 11 Oct 2022

President López Obrador achieved another political victory last week in his push to make the military responsible for public security at the federal level at least through 2028 when he succeeded in getting that reform measure passed in the Senate by winning over ten PRI senators and two from the ...

Strategies for the run-off and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2022

The first debate between Bolsonaro and Lula will take place on October 16 on Band TV. There will be a federal holiday on Wednesday, October 12, and the second round campaign should impact the pace of voting in the Lower House and Senate. In the House, there is a bill on electoral polling institut...

Russian missiles strikes on Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022

On October 10 the missiles struck Kyiv and other cities. At least 11 civilians were killed. The low death toll suggests that the targeting was not good.  Some missiles struck electric power stations, a university, a museum and waterworks. Targeting civilian infrastructure is against the Geneva Co...

Expect the headline inflation rate to jump to around 20% in tomorrow's report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2022

The September CPI-inflation data is expected tomorrow. There can be little doubt that the headline rate will make far its biggest jump seen in the country's recent economic history, up from the 15.6% yoy figure recorded for August. This is because now the full impact of the August administrative ...

The first 100 days: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Oct 2022

100 days have passed since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the late dictator’s son and namesake, was sworn in as the 17th President of the Philippines. So far, he has behaved as we expected, i.e., not like his father. Although we had said that this is both good and bad, the overall net sentiment of busine...

Sanctions, scarves, deficits
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2022

After the US, EU, too, is threatening Turkey with retaliation on suspicion of helping Russian entities to circumvent sanctions through Turkish partners. While there is no “smoking gun” to prove this type of conduct, circumstantial evidence is piling up. The first essay in the politics section ...

Crimea Bridge damaged
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2022

On October 8 Russian state media reported that a truck crossing the bridge across Kerch Strait exploded. It is the only bridge linking Crimea to Russia. 7 oil tankers on the rail bridge caught fire due to the exploding truck. The bridge to Crimea is vital for supplying the Russian Army. There is ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil surges on OPEC+ cuts, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns in a day, PIF issues green bonds, Yemen ceasefire ends
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is surging after the dramatic OPEC+ cuts, which could push the market into deficit in November. * There is fury in the US at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but little retaliatory action seems viable. * The Yemen ceasefire ...

UN Human Rights Council to monitor Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2022

On October 7 the decision was made by a vote. This is the first time that the UNHRC has monitored Russia. There are 47 countries on the council. A special rapporteur will be sent to Russia. He or she will monitor Russia for a year. 17 voted for the resolution, 24 abstained and six countries voted...

This week was all about gaining support for the runoff round, electoral advertisements on TV and radio resume today, and there is a bill in the House that makes legislation on polling institutes stricter
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro received support from the Governor of Rio de Janeiro, Cláudio Castro; of São Paulo, Rodrigo Garcia' of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema; and of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado. Former President Lula received support from PSD senators, as well as economists responsible for creating the Real...

Webinar replay: Brazil elections – What we learned from the first round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2022 · 1 response

Get insight into Brazil's crucial 2022 general election. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of "Brazil elections – What we learned from the first round" featuring Lucas de Aragão discussing the results from the first round and what they mean for Brazil's outlook.

Business sector growth expectations soften
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Oct 2022

1. Monetary tightening continued, with the BoI increasingly concerned over “broad-based” inflation. 2. Business sector activity remained strong in September but future expectations have softened. 3. Wage growth appears concentrated in accommodation and food services.

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