It won’t be easy for foreign firms to leave China

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 13 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese trade surplus in May was by far the largest trade surplus ever recorded by China for that month. For the first five months of the year China’s trade surplus was 42 percent greater than during the same period last year. Last year’s trade...

Disputed taxes and their implications for the measured fiscal situation

INDIA · Report · 13 Jun 2022

In this report, we show a weakness of conventional fiscal data. Many times, it appears that taxes are paid by a private person, but simultaneously litigated. The stock of this litigation has risen to economically significant values. Alongside this, there is evidence that the win rate for the gove...

Conditions support steady aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jun 2022

• Recent economic indicators point to fairly robust growth and steady business sector optimism. • We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.8% m/m, at the high end of consensus. • Conditions support steady monetary tightening in the coming year (0.5% at next rate decision on July 4th), to 2.75% one yea...

The pendulum has (already) swung

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jun 2022

Over the recent weeks military experts and journalists have suddenly turned quite optimistic on developments at the front. Fights are still extremely tough, and casualties on Ukrainian side are very high. Nevertheless, all people following the military actions closely have become positive after m...

Off into a crucial poll-free week

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

Russia hands out passports in Ukraine as people emigrate from Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

Anti-war Russians are emigrating to European countries such as Croatia. They want to get to the EU, which opposes Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It is now very difficult for Russians to obtain visas to enter the EU. Some have come illegally. Some Russians travel to Bosnia, which is a non-EU countr...

Conditions support steady aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.8%, at the high end of consensus • We expect higher prices in food, apparel, travel abroad and housing. • Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.4% y/y in May from 4.0% in April. • Inflation y/y is expected to continue to move higher towards 5% in coming months, s...

No country for rabbits

TURKEY · Report · 12 Jun 2022

President Erdogan announced his intention to run again, thus officially starting the presidential race. While the announcement was a statement of the obvious, it triggers several tremors, as well as revealing the strategies of the opposing camps. Spoiler alert: The announcement has no bearing on ...

The next-to-last one before poll silence

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2022

Trends persist

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

South Africa records its seventh consecutive current account surplus during Q1-2022

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2022, South Africa’s current account recorded its eighth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The Q1-2022 surplus, widen...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi posts strong GDP, Jebel Ali stake sold, Coronavirus cases tick up

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is close to its post-invasion high, and the UAE energy minister says it is nowhere near the peak. * One driver is an IAEA resolution criticizing Iran, which responded by reducing nuclear site monitoring. * Coronavirus...

Webinar Replay: Venezuela – Sanctions: What's next?

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Get insight into how changes to sanctions may reshape Venezuela's macro outlook and the future of Venezuelan oil. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing sanctions, the Chevron license, and what's ahead for Venezuela.

The PSDB announced support for the candidacy of Sen. Simone Tebet, the Senate may vote on bills related to the ICMS tax, and the Joint Budget Committee may vote on the preliminary report on the draft Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) for 2023

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Senator Tasso Jereissati is the favorite to run as vice president on the Senator Tebet’s ticket. Achieving unity in the bloc will be difficult, and the confirmation of the ticket during the convention period will be another battle, especially if Simone's intended votes remain low. In addition to ...

Kazakh Constitution to be amended

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2022

On June 6 it was announced that a referendum approved a package of reforms to the constitution. 77% of votes were for the changes. There was a reported turnout of 68%. Experts suggest the high turnout may not be credible. The referendum was on over 50 amendments to the constitution – a large numb...