GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected. * OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4. * There were...

Playing LEGO with Colombian security

COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A la Obama or Trump, Gustavo Petro initiated his presidency with apparent use of executive orders. They don’t even need to be written down -- just uttered into the presidential microphone, in any meeting, before any small population, at any time of day. In most instances, the new approach comes t...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2022

CIS POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2022

* The Ukraine War continues, with neither side making much progress and bombardments decreasing. * Western military and financial aid to Ukraine is lessening. * Russia has reduced energy sales to the EU and increased them to China. * The Black Sea Grain Initiative is working smoothly, allo...

Inflation continues to creep higher

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Aug 2022

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for GDP in Q2 2022, growing by 5.44% Y/Y, significantly above the 5.01% achieved in the previous quarter. In fact, the rate of growth also exceeded the consensus, which expected the rate of growth to be at most 5.20% for the quarter. Compare...

China's tech crackdown - an excerpt from my new book, "China's Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants"

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2022

When Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, gave a speech on October 24, 2020 to the country’s political and financial elite, he set in motion a crackdown on China’s flourishing technology sector that will have long consequences on China’s economic growth. In my n...

Economics: What the troubled Sofomes say about the state of the Mexican financial system

MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2022

This past August 8 an important Sofom (one of the Multiple Purpose Financial Companies or Sociedades Financieras de Objeto Múltiple) announced it was suspending payments to its creditors given “the complicated environment facing the non bank financial institution sector.” Given that this company ...

Chile's Constitutional Referendum: The Countdown Begins

CHILE · In Brief · 29 Aug 2022 · 1 response

With just under a week to go to Chile’s constitutional referendum, the political process which began on 18 October, 2019 is about to reach its zenith. Polls continue to show that a plurality of Chileans will reject the draft constitution on 4 September, although as other important votes elsewhere...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices to support revenue flow for the rest of the year

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Aug 2022

On August 27, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Zhamaubaev presented a draft law on the Republican budget for 2023-2025. Mr. Zhamaubaev mentioned that republican budget revenues are expected at KZT 17.8 trln next year while expenditures should reach KZT 21.0 trln. Hence the deficit is expected t...

Politics: Mexican educational system stymied by mistaken government policies

MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2022

Educational policy and programs have played a key role in the public battle between proponents and opponents of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (4T), which openly declares its aim to radically transform Mexican society. The Education Reform of 2013 pushed by then-Pre...

Further tightening expected ahead

ISRAEL · Report · 29 Aug 2022

The MPC continues to reveal its hawkish bias * Policy rates moved 0.75% higher, to 2.0%, at the high end of consensus, which was in the 0.5%-0.75% range and closer to 0.5%. * Rates have pretty much surprised on the upside since the tightening cycle commenced. * Present rat...

Russia has detained 16,500 for anti-war protests in 6 months

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2022

On August 24 human rights group OVD Info published a report about the scale of state repression in Russia. The great majority of the arrests for expressing anti-war sentiments came in February and March 2022. Since then there have been very few demonstrations. Most of the arrests were in the two ...

UN inspects Ukrainian nuclear plant

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2022

On August 26 the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) completed its inspection of the Zaporizhzhia plant. The plant is in Russian hands. IAEA is a UN agency. Ukraine has now said that Russia has cut the plant off from the power grid. This leaves much of Ukraine without electricity. It is ...

Russian macro: industry shows signs of stabilization

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Almost every day the media quotes all sorts of politicians and commentators who talk about sanctions against Russia, repeating incantations that these sanctions work, or will work in a more distant time. It is not specified exactly how they will work. On the other hand, there are experts who argu...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hints at oil cuts, UAE ambassador returns to Iran, tourism recovers in Bahrain

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Aug 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister roiled markets by hinting at possible production cuts. * This came as Iran submitted a “reasonable” response to the EU on the nuclear deal text. * The UAE is sending its ambassador back to Iran afte...

Lula interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, Simone Tebet to be interviewed tonight, and Bolsonaro said he expects Minister de Moraes to publish the reasoning behind his decision to authorize the Federal Police operation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Former President Lula was interviewed by Jornal Nacional in a friendly environment, without embarrassing questions and without being interrupted as he spoke. Overall, he did well. Today, the MDB's presidential candidate, Simone Tebet, will be the final interviewee of the series. Also today, free ...