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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

S&P rating action, Guardian on local courts, construction industry and the strong dollar: the forint is under some pressure again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

The forint is still trading on the strong side of the important EURHUF 400 line, which is great, but it has come under some pressure this morning. Besides today's strong dollar, which is normally negative for the Hungarian currency, there are some domestic factors behind this as well. First, S&P ...

Russia increases energy sales to Hungary
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

On August 14 Hungary said that it has received extra gas from Russia. The Hungarian Foreign Minister visited Russia in July 2022. He is the only EU foreign minister to do so since the war began. Hungary stated that these talks secured the gas supplies which are 2.6 million cubic meters per day ad...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate monetary tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2022

Consumers are pessimistic but the business sector sees growth ahead: The CBS consumer index declined in July to the lowest level since October 2020 (Covid lockdown), especially the forward-looking components. The Business Sector Tendency Survey points to steady growth and expectations of further ...

Valdez Albizu ratified as Governor of the Central Bank
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Aug 2022

President Luis Abinader has ratified the current governor of the Central Bank, Hector Valdez Albizu, to remain in the position for the period 2022-2024. Valdez Albizu has held the position for 24 years (1994-2000 and 2004-2022). He has worked as Governor of the Central Bank in the administrations...

Russian macro: balance of payments undergoing radical change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

As the group of “unfriendly” countries is working hard to prepare the mechanism that could impose a price cap on Russian oil exports and is trying to convince other countries to join their club, it is worth looking at Russia’s balance of payments and consider its possible evolution. It looks as t...

Latvia declares Russia a ''state sponsor of terrorism''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2022

On August 11 the Latvian Parliament passed a motion saying Russia had committed genocide in Ukraine. No one voted against the motion. Ukraine applauded the move.  Russia denounced this as xenophobia and accused those who passed the motion of being neo-Nazis. Latvia noted that Russia often uses cl...

The event in defense of democracy was held at USP yesterday, next week the electoral campaigns begin, and Minister Alexandre de Moraes takes over as the president of the TSE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

The event had wide coverage in the press. Representatives of social movements that participated in the event took advantage of the opportunity and strongly criticized the government of President Jair Bolsonaro. On Tuesday, August 16, the election campaign begins. Candidates can begin asking for v...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman mulls EDO sukuk amidst H1 surplus, Kuwait hikes rates further, nuclear deal text “final”
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $100 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, even though OPEC reduced its own. * The Iran nuclear deal text was finalized, and political decisions are pending on whether to sign it. * The Saudi ministry o...

Inflation continues rising
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

Although roughly speaking in line with market expectations, bearing in mind the sharp depreciation of the informal FX rate following Martín Guzman´s resignation, July’s 7.4% m/m CPI inflation remains nevertheless a worrisome measurement of the “fever” that the economy suffers due to its significa...

Avoiding economic crisis amid political litmus tests
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 11 Aug 2022

Amid an increasingly restrictive monetary policy and increases in widespread subsidies, economic growth (5.6%) and inflation (9.5%) in H1 2022 maintained momentum compared to H1 2021. This was also true when compared with January-May 2022. Economic growth has been mainly associated with the stron...

Central Asia military drills take place without Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

On August 10 Mongolia, Pakistan, the US, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan began their military exercises in Tajikistan. The US is sponsoring it. The exercise is called Regional Cooperation 22. Washington DC has hailed this as an excellent example of its cooperation with the regio...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

The Russian monetary authorities continue to discourage local clients from keeping funds in unfriendly currencies in the domestic financial system. Last week the Russian President signed a decree that allows sanctioned banks to freeze accounts of legal entities nominated in the currency of those ...

Some EU countries want to ban Russian visitors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

On August 10 Estonia called for all Russians to be prohibited from visiting the EU. Finland is mulling reducing the number of visas for Russians. The question is whether banning Russians from the EU would send a strong anti-war message to Russia, or would it hurt anti-war Russians as well as heig...

There will be several demonstrations for democracy today, Bolsonaro, Lula and Ciro submitted their government plans to the TSE, and the STF ministers unanimously approved their salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2022

The demonstrations will take place in at least 20 Brazilian cities in the law schools of several public and private universities. There will also be a demonstration in Brasilia. President Jair Bolsonaro's program provides for the maintenance of the Auxílio Brasil program with payments of R$ 600 f...

Vice governor Virág expects inflation close to 20% by year end
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

MNB vice governor Barnabás Virág spoke on the radio yesterday. He was asked about inflation prospects. Although he gave a view that was quite a lot different from the Bank's Q2 inflation forecast of late June, he pretty much just confirmed the obvious, by saying that the headline CPI-inflation ra...

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