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On August 24 representatives of the two hostile countries met under the auspices of the EU. In August 2022 there was sniping across the ceasefire line between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia accused the other side of being the aggressor. The EU's statement about the talks was notable for its non-...

Ukraine celebrates independence day as Johnson visits

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

On August 24 Ukraine marked 31 years of independence. It also happened to be 6 months since the war began. Zelensky vowed to recover all national territory without making concessions. He referred to the Russian Army as ''terrorists''. Charred Russian tanks were displayed in Kyiv. UK Prime Minist...

Lula will be interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional tonight, the Brasmarket poll shows that Bolsonaro is in the lead, and the government reinstated the IPI on 109 products

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2022

Former President Lula's performance in this interview is expected to be a deciding factor regarding whether he will participate in the first electoral debate of the campaign, scheduled for Sunday, August 28, on TV Bandeirantes, and, consequently, Jair Bolsonaro's participation in the debate. The ...

Consolidated budget surplus narrows in July as republican budget deficit widens – as planned

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan reported that in 7M22, the authorities were able to accumulate KZT11.853 trln of revenues in the consolidated budget out of KZT18.612 trln targeted for the full year. This budget accounts for budgets of all levels, the National Fund, and state social funds, a...

The winding road to recognition

VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Aug 2022

With his sights set on 2024, when he hopes to secure his third term, Maduro needs to keep his fiscal austerity program on track while facing growing demands for better salaries and services. He needs to revive his electoral machinery, diminished by the civil service's weakening and the disillusio...

Deflation continues while economic activity seemingly stabilizes

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported another week of deflation as in seven days ending on August 22 the consumer price index fell by 0.15% w-o-w. It brought the MTD deflation to 0.38%. Inflation YTD decelerated to 10.56%. It is likely that in August, deflation could exceed 0.5% m-o-m and bring down the y-o-y inflati...

Lower-than-budgeted revenue for the first two quarters, the search for independent presidential hopefuls begins, and the populist approach to the social crisis continues at a slower pace

PANAMA · Report · 24 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The fiscal balance for the NFPS during the first six months of the year showed an increase in revenue in real terms and reductions in current and investment expenditure, also in real terms, compared with 2021. Current savings were negative (0.35% of GDP) but better than the -0.8% of last year. Th...

Ciro was interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, the Federal Police carried out an operation against businessmen who support Bolsonaro, and two more polls on the presidential election will be published today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2022

The atmosphere of the interview with Ciro was friendlier than in the interview with President Jair Bolsonaro. Ciro insisted on presenting numbers and detailing proposals, mentioning his government plan, which is the subject of a book he published about two years ago. This made his interview tiri...

Bolsonaro was interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, Ciro will be interviewed today, and Lula gave an interview to the international press yesterday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2022

The main topics discussed in Bolsonaro’s interview were the electoral system, his relationship with the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the pandemic, the economy, the environment, his alliance with the center, and education. In his final remarks, Bolsonaro said that the country has gone through toug...

Daughter of pro-Putin nationalist thinker killed in Moscow

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2022

On August 22 Daria Dugina was assassinated. It is thought the bomb that blew up her car was intended to kill her father, who is a pro-Putin nationalist philosopher. Alexander Dugin was due to travel in the car and at the last moment decided not to. Russia has blamed Ukraine for the slaying. Ukrai...

China increases purchase of Russian hydrocarbons

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 22 Bloomberg published data from the Chinese Customs service showing that China bought USD 35 billion of Russian oil, gas and coal in March-July 2022. Over the same period in 2022 China bought USD 20 billion of these Russian fuels. The increased amount spent is a reflection of price inc...

The Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy in Brazil

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

It is known that economically mature countries tend to have low neutral interest rates. The causes are also known, ranging from the demographic transition to the lower investment rate, and it is necessary to understand how monetary policy operates when the interest rate in equilibrium approaches ...

Fiscal policy switched to emergency mode

HUNGARY · Report · 22 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It was only a month ago that we raised our end-2022 consumer inflation forecast to the upper teens, simultaneously improving the outlook for growth, predicting robust annual GDP growth for this year. But forecasts do not have a long life these days. We now see CPI-inflation even higher, right aro...

BoI surprises with a 0.75% rate hike

ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

Rates moved 0.75% higher on August 22, to 2.0%, with the monetary statement noting the acceleration in inflation in July (above the upper bound and broad based), the robust growth print in Q2 2022 of 6.8% and the strong level of activity in July, the tight labor market (the employment rate is abo...

Real estate cooling drags economic recovery

CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2022

Industrial output grew 3.5% y/y in January-July, up 0.1 pps from H1. In January-July, investment rose 5.7% y/y, down 0.4 pps from H1. In particular, the investment growth rate in July was down 2.4 pps from June. High infrastructure investment has been flattened by reduced real estate investment. ...