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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A series of provisional measures will be analyzed in the House, Senator Simone Tebet’s VP may be announced today, and the Copom meets to decide on the new interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2022

On Wednesday, the Senate is expected to vote on the provisional measures that may be put to a vote in the House today. Among them are MP nº 1.108/22, which regulates teleworking; and MP nº 1,109/22, which authorizes the adoption of different labor rules in situations of states of emergency. Senat...

Economics: Various domestic factors and US slowdown prompt revision of 2022 and 2023 estimates
MEXICO · Report · 01 Aug 2022

So far this year, the international economy has been rocked by a range of factors including mounting inflation, with especially pronounced gains in the prices of foods, energy and other commodities, higher interest rates than had been anticipated, uncertainty, and financial market volatility. The...

Politics: Morena seeks to shore up its support and internal organization ahead of 2024
MEXICO · Report · 01 Aug 2022

Riding high on President Andrés Lopez Obrador’s popularity, his Morena party is doing everything possible well ahead of the 2024 elections to shore up its internal organization, put its house in order and be in the best possible condition to ride to victory at the polls. There are several pillars...

Costa Rica: Revision of the Monetary Policy Report for 2022-2023
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2022

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the third revision of the Monetary Policy Report for 2022-2023 on July 29th. Based on indicators of the first semester, the Bank maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2022 but revised downward the figure for 2023. Real GDP will expand 3.4% y/y in 2022, dri...

Second-round simulation trends and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2022

Congress and the Judiciary resume activity this week. President Jair Bolsonaro has until August 4 to sanction the national nursing salary floor. Friday, August 5, is the deadline for party conventions. The Central Bank will decide on the basic interest rate. This week's Talking Points: ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Aug 2022

If the election were held today, Lula would win in the first round with 52% of the votes versus Bolsonaro with 32% according to the most recent Datafolha survey. Much can change in the 60 remaining days, but as things stand now, Lula has a commanding lead. In the international arena, after five m...

Expansion, with inflation
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Aug 2022

Costa Rica presented a mixed picture during H1. On the positive side, the economy displayed good economic activity momentum; fiscal accounts kept improving, despite the attack by Conti; credit in domestic currency expanded nicely; and nearshoring remained strong. On the negative side, the country...

Food ship leaves Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2022

On August 1 the first food ship under the Russo-Ukrainian deal left Odessa. The ship is bound for Lebanon and carrying maize. The ship is flagged in Sierra Leone. It has a capacity of 30,000 tons. Turkey is coordinating the scheme. If does not succeed the UN says that 50 million people face hunger.

The National Congress and the Judiciary resume activity today, this is the final week to hold party conventions, and three more polls will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2022

There are a series of provisional measures (MPs) on the agenda in the House. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) resumes activity with the analysis of three Direct Acts of Unconstitutionality (ADIs 4785, 4786 and 4787) against state laws in Minas Gerais, Pará and Amapá. Important developments are exp...

Monetary tightening to persist despite temporary low inflation in August
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Aug 2022 · 1 response

1. Economic indicators continue to point to fairly steady growth, including credit card purchases and hi-tech exports. 2. Inflation in August is expected to reach -0.1% due to a 19% decline in petrol prices (in part, a temporary cut in tariffs). 3. Low bond issuance and excess bond re...

The government is progressively backing out of administrative price controls
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Aug 2022

On July 30, the government reduced eligibility to administratively controlled low-price motor fuels to cars operated by households, agricultural vehicles and cabs, excluding from eligibility all cars owned or operated by legal entities. The measure was enforced with immediate effect. Simultaneous...

Monetary tightening to persist, despite temporary low inflation in August
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jul 2022

Inflation: Our inflation forecast for August revised down to -0.1% m/m  * Petrol prices declined by 19% m/m today, due both to lower global oil prices and an additional cut in petrol tariffs. Officially, this tariff reduction is apparently only for one month (contributing -8% to the price change ...

A political thriller and some other (more boring) stuff
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jul 2022

In this last Weekly Tracker before August recess, the politics author lays out, in Hollywood style fictional form, the roadmap to 2023 elections. The movie starts with the Big Reveal of how Kilicdaroglu and the Nation Alliance ended the Erdogan Era in May 2023 elections. It then goes back to Augu...

Russia ends gasflow to Latvia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2022

On July 30 Gazprom took action. Latvia is an EU and NATO country that is a former Soviet state. It has a significant Russian minority. Gazprom said it ended gas supply because Latvia is breaking conditions of purchase. Gazprom has already reduced gas supplies to Germany to 20% of capacity. The EU...

Ukrainian POWs killed by artillery strike
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2022 · 1 response

On July 28 over 40 Ukrainian prisoners in Russian captivity were killed when the prison they were in was shelled. Russia said that it was hit by Ukraine using HIMARS. Some of the POWs were from the Azov Battalion. The prison is in the Donetsk People's Republic in east Ukraine. Ukraine said the pr...

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