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Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

​Just for the record: new fiscal 2021 figures has published by MEF. The NFPS deficit in 2021 was revised upwards
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

On April 4, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) issued its revision of the Balances of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2021. The net deficit of the NFPS changed from 5.53% of GDP to 6.66% of GDP in 2021 (US$ 3.523 billion to US$ 4.238 billion) or 20.3% larger....

Austrian Chancellor visits Moscow and Kyiv to talk peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

On April 11 Karl Nehammer spoke to Putin in person for an hour. His attempt to persuade Putin to end military action failed. Nehammer then flew to Kyiv to meet Zelensky.Austria is an EU but not a NATO member. Therefore, its attempt to broker peace was not rejected outright by Russia despite the E...

Economics: Despite recent consumption and investment growth, the outlook remains weak for the next two years
MEXICO · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The latest private consumption and gross fixed capital formation data showed their main indexes experiencing growth at January in an extension of what has been a recovery trend for almost a year and a half. The rise in GFCF extended to construction as well as to spending on both imported and dome...

Lula stumbles at the start and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The Holy Week holiday will reduce activities in the legislature. The União Brasil may announce its pre-candidate for the Planalto Palace. Public servants are expected to decide to go on strike for salary raises. The Executive Office will send the LDO to Congress. On April 16, the electricity bill...

​Russia’s current account remained strong in 1Q22 and in March as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

The CBR published its first estimate of the country’s 1Q22 current account which reportedly reached $58.2 bn. The trade balance over the same period accounted for $66.3bn, as exports and imports reached $156.7bn and $90.4bn. All numbers looked strong, including for March as in January exports and...

Politics: AMLO radicalizes discourse and actions to bolster his power and shore up his base
MEXICO · Report · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

In the past weeks, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has radicalized both his discourse and measures on several levels, all in an effort to consolidate his project and ensure its continuity with a Morena victory in the 2024 presidential elections. Sparks have been flying between the country’s...

Exchange Rate, Fiscal Fundamentals and Fiscal Results
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The strongly rising inflation casts doubt on whether the SELIC rate of 12.75% for an extended period will be sufficient to bring inflation to the target in 2023. If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, it can help achieve this goal somewhat. In this report, we analyze what has been happenin...

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets The Bank of Israel decided to hike by 0.25% to 0.35% today, while markets (and myself) had expected a hike of 0.15% to 0.25%, although I saw a 35% probability of a 0.40% hike to 0.5%. The more hawkish bias is due to a combination of accelerating inflation ...

The Holy Week holiday reduces activities in the legislature, public servants continue to strike, and the União Brasil may form an alliance with other third way parties and launch a single presidential candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The opposition had obtained the minimum 27 signatures necessary to create a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate to investigate allegations of corruption in the Ministry of Education. However, government negotiations managed to withdraw some signatures to reduce the negative eff...

The state of the recovery: firms faring better than households
INDIA · Report · 11 Apr 2022

There is a divergence in the picture of the economy as seen in data for large firms vs. the data for households. The large firms are faring well. For the first time since 2013, expansion of net sales and operating profit is seen, in real terms, in the aggregate values for non-financial non-oi...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Apr 2022

1. Rates are expected to move higher today; the bond market will react to the BoI policy rate forecast and the Governor’s press conference. 2. The cumulative fiscal deficit declined to 1.4% GDP in March; we expect bond issuance to decline further. 3. The coalition has weakened, maki...

The 47th day of war: the big battle over Donbas "slips"
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

We are living in anticipation of the decisive battle over Donbas. The Russians totally withdrew from the North and the North-East. Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy are returning to peaceful life, if this phrase is applicable in nowadays. At the same time Russians are accumulating forces in Donbas and in the...

The approval of the IMF program brought calm to the foreign exchange markets but accentuated tensions within the government
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

In the last week of January, before the announcement of an understanding between the staff of the IMF and the Ministry of Economy, the foreign exchange rate in the bond swap market (CCL) and the informal ¨blue¨ market fluctuated around 220 pesos per dollar. Now, two weeks after the final approval...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

We expect a rate hike today of 0.15% Due to robust growth and strong labor market, we cannot rule out a rate hike of 0.4% to a level of 0.5% (35% probability). All conditions have been met to commence a tightening cycle: recovery from the pandemic, rapid economic growth, strong labor market, infl...

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