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Better abroad than at home
TURKEY · Report · 10 Apr 2022

Long discarded by the West as “no longer useful”, Ankara’s Bladerunner tactics in the East-West conflict arising from the Ukrainian War has earned President Erdogan a new look from Western governments. However, he is not ready to follow through with concessions on key disputes to turn diplomatic ...

Armenia and Azerbaijan close to a peace treaty after talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 9 peace talks between the two former Soviet republics took place in Brussels. The EU midwifed the talks. The leaders of both countries met and expressed optimism about the talks. They agreed to establish a joint commission to delineate the border.The talks took 4 hours, which is a good s...

Russia closes offices of human rights organizations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 8 Moscow said it was shutting the offices of the Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International. Both bodies have had operations in Russia since the early 1990s. Thirty organizations have been removed from the registry of international organizations in Russia owing to breaking the la...

Paying in rubles for energy imports from Russia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

PM Orbán has happened to say that Hungary could pay in rubles for its gas imports from Russia if necessary. He sees that as a technical affair, he said.EU Commission head vd Leyen reacted by saying that paying in rubles would clearly breach existing sanctions. So far, Hungary has complied with al...

EU sanctions Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 7 the EU voted to ban Russian coal and to forbid Russian ships to dock in EU ports. The sanctions package include a ban on selling certain high tech goods to Russia. Moreover, many Russian owned yachts have been seized. The assets of several Russian banks have been frozen. The EU has for...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P upgrades Oman, Yemen ceasefire begins, Kuwaiti government resigns, Abu Dhabi’s non-oil recovery lags peers
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil eased back to a still strong $100 after the IEA announced a strategic reserve release. * A two-month ceasefire began in Yemen, and the president delegated powers to a new presidential council. * Gulf states all abstain...

De-facto change in monetary policy stance
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The monetary policy statement though retained the accommodative stance but the wording was changed to: ...."remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth." There is a possibility that th...

Savings, investment and politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

Two years into the COVID pandemic, the Colombian economy has experienced roller-coaster swings the likes of which it has never witnessed before. The dramatic downturn of 2020, followed by a remarkable rebound in 2021, is already a well-known fact; we are also well aware of the stark deterioration...

Webinar Replay - Mexico: Economic and political prospects for the second half of AMLO’s term
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2022

Gain insights on the economic and political challenges ahead for Mexico and how the country is likely to navigate them. Visit our calendar page to watch Guillermo Valdés and Mauricio Gonzalez discuss Mexico's weakening macroeconomic conditions, the pressure of high inflation and low growth on the...

President Bolsonaro’s performance in the polls expected to improve, the PT fears Lula’s controversial statements on abortion may cause electoral damage, and the União Brasil announced it will launch a presidential candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The government still hopes that the improvement in the economic environment can continue and, with that, increase its popularity among the electorate. Minister Paulo Guedes said yesterday that the government can use the excess in tax collection to correct the income tax table for individuals. Aft...

Consumer inflation continues to accelerate, though not in a runaway fashion
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The year-on-year rate of CPI-inflation rose further to 8.5% in March, from 8.3% in February, on a 1% rise of the CPI in March alone.Despite the increase, this may look like a relatively favourable figure, as analysts' median expectation was 8.65% and the MNB predicted something in the 8.5-9% rang...

The key rate cut to 17%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The CBR cut its key rate to 17% while referring to slowing w-o-w inflation, and the risk of further deterioration of the economic activity pressure on the financial sector as well. The regulator also hinted that further rate cuts are possible but the decisions will be data-dependent. High key rat...

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee trims growth forecast and raises inflation projection
INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The first bi-monthly meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded today. In contrast to the previous monetary policy announcement, the focus this time has been on managing inflation and withdrawing the excess liquidity through formal instruments. The RBI acknowledged that the di...

US bans exports to Russian airlines
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 8 the ban was imposed on Aeroflot, Azur Air and Utair. The US accused the airlines of breaking sanctions. Aeroflot had flown Boeing aircraft which was a violation of a previous sanction. The airlines will not be able to buy American goods for 6 months. They are banned from using US-made ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

The Russian ruble has bounced back in recent days/weeks as more sanctions were announced and a great number of Western exporters terminated their business with Russia. Demand for imports in the country fell and amid a sort of capital controls combined with increased risk of holding money outside ...

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