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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Global and domestic shocks to slow the South African economy following the impressive Q1-2022 GDP print
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2022
• South African growth: Following its notable recovery in 2021, the South African economy once again surprised on the upside during the first quarter of 2022. However, due to numerous negative shocks acting as headwinds, evidence is pointing to a contraction in the second quarter of 2022. • So...
The STF will decide whether it will grant a salary raise to employees of the Judiciary, Lula participated in an event at the Fiesp yesterday, and the IBGE showed that the national inflation rate decreased by 0.68%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2022
If the salary raise proposal in the STF is submitted and approved by Congress, the STF has stated that the raise must be paid with funds that have been relocated from the Judiciary's budget. The issue is the resulting domino effect, since the STF's salary is the ceiling for the civil service. For...
Prompt reaction: MOL has settled the transit fee on Russian oil shipments to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022
After yesterday's shock announcement that oil shipments by Russia to Hungary (Czechia and Slovakia) through Ukraine were halted five days earlier because of a 'technical problem' around the financial settlement of the transit fee due from Russia to Ukraine, the outlines of a quick and simple solu...
Russia’s external balances widen in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022
The Central Bank released its flash estimate of the current account surplus along with the combined balance of goods and services in 7M22. The former reached $166.6 bn while the latter widened to $192.4 bn, i.e., to levels which one couldn’t imagine several months ago. Moreover, it appears that i...
Ukraine appears to strike bases in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022
On August 8 the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian naval air base. Russian sources acknowledged one person was killed and several were wounded. But the Russian government then said that there were no casualties. According to some sources there were 13 explosions. Russia admitted that there was...
No Russian crude oil is currently flowing into Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022
We apologise for raising the flag the second time today on something that happened Hungary. Normally, events should be on holiday at this time of the year, but somehow this is not the time for a calm and balanced summer recess. So the thing is that, as reported today, the usually continuous impor...
Bolsonaro participated in an event at the Febraban yesterday, Lula will participate in a debate at the Fiesp today, and the TSE denied the Ministry of Defense access to documents from the 2014 and 2018 elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2022
The Febraban said that it does not like high interest rates, would like predictability and that it is willing to establish dialog, while President Jair Bolsonaro said he wants transparency in the voting process and criticized the PT. Today, former President Lula will participate in a debate at th...
Avoiding the Bermuda Triangle
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Aug 2022
The three legs of the governability triangle that the new government seems to be working on most intensely are: 1) politics 2) the economy, and 3) the so-called “Total Peace,” plus security force reform. On the political front, there is clear progress, with President Gustavo Petro stating that he...
Iranian satellite launched by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022
On August 9 the satellite was launched from a Kazakh space station that is run by Russia. It is suspected that this might help Russia to ameliorate its surveillance of Ukraine. The Soyuz rocket carried a Khayyam satellite that is Iranian made. It is now in orbit. Tehran has not criticized Russia ...
July consumer inflation at 2.3% mom, 13.7% yoy; the MNB has been vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022
Local analysts, expecting 13% yoy for the headline CPI-inflation rate of July, apparently underestimated the upward potential. The MNB did better with its 13-14% yoy forecast range. Anyway, the figures look quite ugly. The leading driver was food, up 4.1% mom, 27% yoy, a very unseasonal phenomeno...
2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of analysts...
Ukraine announces a unit of Russian defectors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022
Kyiv is keen to let the media know that the Ukrainian Army has recruited Russian dissidents. Some of them are Prisoners of War who have been allowed to change sides. They are called the Freedom of Russia Legion. Some of them traveled to Ukraine via third countries. The number of soldiers in the F...
Economics: Data released in July shows weakening growth while global slowing casts a pall
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2022
Inegi’s preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP showed the economy continuing to cruise along at roughly the same pace as it did between January and March. The report shows continuing gains in the agricultural and service sectors but especially the secondary sector, which despite setbacks in i...
The Central Bank’s Policy and the Growth of the Neutral Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022
At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 13.75% a year and did not rule out one or more new increases of lesser magnitude. Even though it is widely recognized that monetary policy is already strongly restrictive, which will lead to a decline of inflation, criticisms ex...
Politics: Morena internal elections plagued by massive irregularities
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2022
Over the weekend of July 30-31, Morena held internal elections to select delegates to its national congress slated for September 17-18. The congress will elect a new National Council and National Executive Committee. This coming weekend the same delegates will meet to elect their respective state...