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The 3rd day of decisive battle for Donbas: no great progress in offensive observed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

The big battle for Donbas was "officially" started on Monday, April 18, when President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reported in public that fighting has intensified. In fact, the intense efforts of Russians to push the frontline in the East and South have not eased over the last two weeks. However, intens...

Inflation w-o-w slows
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending April 15, decelerated to 0.20% from 0.66% during the previous week. Food prices generally continued to rise albeit more slowly, however weekly deflation was recorded for many products in the non-food segment, such as some types of consume...

Expect an unchanged sterilisation rate at tomorrow's deposit tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

Given the forint's recent appreciation to EURHUF 371, with which we believe the MNB must be perfectly satisfied, investors should not expect any further increase of the 1-week deposit rate, the effective sterilisation rate, from its latest 6.15% level tomorrow.Going forward, the next event to fol...

The Federal Audit Court should analyze the privatization of Eletrobras today, employees of the National Treasury expected to go on strike, and the president of Solidariedade formally gives his support to former President Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2022

Minister Vital do Rego has already stated that he will request a 60-day review for the case. Thus, the process will not be completed today. The government is hoping the review will take as little time as possible. Employees of the National Treasury will hold a new strike for a salary raise. On th...

A quick note on China's macro data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Apr 2022

China has issued a flurry of policies designed to rejuvenate the economy – a 25-basis-point RRR cut last week, 23 bank-focused policies Monday…What is unusual is how restrained the reaction has been. Between lockdowns, Covid, the Ukraine situation, continued friction with the U.S, and the tech cr...

Shooting across the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2022

On April 14 the foreign ministers of the two Central Asian countries met to talk about tensions along their frontier. 7 people were shot; both civilians and border guards. The governments are seeking to de-escalate the predicament.There were demonstrations outside the Tajik Embassy in Kyrgyzstan....

There will be negotiations regarding alliances for the upcoming presidential election, the Senate should vote on the bill to regulate the cryptocurrency market today, and public servants’ strikes continue to cause issues for the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2022

The presidents of the PSDB, União Brasil, Cidadania and MDB will meet on April 25 to discuss a possible alliance. Paulinho da Força, president of the Solidariedade, initiated conversations with Eduardo Leite and Aécio Neves. Ciro Gomes said that he intends to resume conversations with the PSD and...

Russian attack on Donbas has started - Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2022

On April 19 Zelensky made the announcement. Moscow has not made such an announcement. Ukraine vowed to defend Donbas. There is a significant Russian attack on the Luhansk region, which is the region just north of the Donetsk region - itself also under siege and where Mariupol is located.The Ukrai...

The Central Bank and The Red Queen Syndrome
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

With the one-year ex ante real interest rate at (or slightly above) 7%, nobody can accuse the Central Bank of being lenient with inflation. However, it is necessary to recognize that as of the start of the pandemic, the Bank has been behind the curve, allowing expectations to become unanchored. T...

The search for the youth vote and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

This will be another short week in Congress due to the holiday on Thursday (Tiradentes). The House will discuss the leadership of the standing committees. The Provisional Measure on Auxílio Brasil may also be put to a vote. The Senate may vote on a bill dealing with cryptocurrencies. The privatiz...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for a good year ahead
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Apr 2022

The Kazakh National Bureau of Statistics published the 1Q22 economic indicators, and it looks as though the Kazakh economy was doing quite well during this period. The so-called "short-term economic indicator" (covering around 70% of the country’s economic activity) was up by 6.5% y-o-y in 1Q22. ...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for a good year ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

The Kazakh National Bureau of Statistics published the 1Q22 economic indicators, and it looks as though the Kazakh economy was doing quite well during this period. The so-called "short-term economic indicator" (covering around 70% of the country’s economic activity) was up by 6.5% y-o-y in 1Q22. ...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 18, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 18 Apr 2022

Cases continued to drop dramatically in the past two weeks, declining to 5.1K for the week ending Sunday, or 62% drop from two weeks ago. In the light of recent developments, we’ve decided to discontinue our bi-weekly Covid Watch for now, with a view to providing occasional updates in our Sunday ...

The unreported burst of inflation in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Apr 2022

According to the Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV), monthly inflation slowed in March to 1.4 percent from February’s 2.9 percent. According to our own data, by contrast, inflation accelerated—to 4.3 percent. The burst was driven by an expansion in the M1 money sto...

This will be a short week due to the holiday on Thursday, Bolsonaro should appoint two new Central Bank directors, and the government’s proposal to grant a 5% raise to all public servants has failed to ease tensions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

A session has been scheduled in the House for today starting at 5 p.m. to analyze Provisional Measure (MP) 1,076, which deals with the Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400, and MP 1,077/21, which creates the Internet Brazil Program. The new director of Financial System Organization and Resolution, R...

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