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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Soft internal demand complicates recovery prospects
MEXICO · Report · 03 May 2021

As of February, industrial activity continued to contract within the same -3.0 to -3.4% range it has been averaging since the beginning of the fourth quarter. The crucial manufacturing industry declined at a similar pace despite hopes that a resurgent US industrial sector could help lift activity...

Politics: The days of the Morena super majority may be numbered
MEXICO · Report · 03 May 2021

This past week President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Morena ran into a series of legal setbacks with serious implications for the future of his Fourth Transformation project. Perhaps the most important were the INE and TEPJF decisions to close loopholes that the incumbent Morena party exploi...

Tax uncertainties add up to more than R$ 1 trillion and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2021

Expectations are high regarding the testimony of the former Ministers of Health and the current Minister of Health, Marcelo Queiroga, in the Pandemic CPI in the Senate. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has promised to release the final report on Tax Reform today, May 3. Cong...

​OMAN: More data needed to clarify the Q1 fiscal performance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 May 2021

Oman is now publishing fiscal data with just a month lag. The year started pretty well with signs of further expenditure consolidation in January and February. March spending ticked up quite a lot and may have been even higher in reality if it was the first month in which oil production costs wer...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: Russia and the West − “social distancing” to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 May 2021

Despite mild restrictions and widespread non-compliance with safety protocols by ordinary Russians, in April and early May Russia’s pandemic situation remained generally unchanged, showing neither deterioration nor improvement. The officially reported daily number of newly infected people fluctua...

South Africa’s economy – a year into the Covid-19 pandemic
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 03 May 2021

South Africa’s growth: In line with what transpired globally as the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in both a worldwide health crisis and widespread economic crisis, the South African economy experienced a deep contraction of 7% in real GDP in 2020. Yet, a number of tail winds, including fewer restric...

Russia will fine media for not calling themselves 'foreign agents'
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 May 2021

On May 3 Putin signed a law instituting financial penalties for publishing commentary and reportage that is not labelled ''foreign agent'' if the statement was produced by a source that has been designated a foreign agent by the government. Each transgression can be fined USD 650. Indivivudal jou...

Report on Tax Reform expected today in the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2021

​As announced last week by the president of the House, Arthur Lira, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro should present his report on the Tax Reform proposal today. Deputy Aguinaldo supports a broader Tax Reform through a Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC), while Deputy Arthur advocates a more grad...

Lower bond issuance likely to offset tapering
ISRAEL · Report · 03 May 2021

Private consumption indicators point to a strong rebound in February-March. This is likely to support strong tax revenues and a positive fiscal print for April. In addition, we see strong consumer demand fueling inflation in the short run, partially offset by a strong shekel. Government bond issu...

Inflation rises further, peak talk premature
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2021 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 1.7%, m/m, in April, slightly less than the market consensus (1.8%), with the 12-month CPI inflation increasing further by almost a full percentage point to 17.1% from 16.2% in March. Parenthetically, this is the seventh consecutive month of increase in CPI inflation, and ...

A humiliating political defeat
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 02 May 2021

Following weekend consultations with political leaders in the wake of nationwide protests that lasted three days, president Duque finally came to terms with the fact that Minister Carrasquilla’s explosively unpopular attempt at widening both the VAT and the personal income tax base has to be scra...

Lower bond issuance likely to offset tapering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 May 2021

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Exports of hi-tech services (10% GDP) increased by 29% in January-February compared to Q420 (annualized). Private consumption rebounded sharply in Q121 with both chain store sales and credit card purchases expanding sharply. T...

Tragically disconnected
TURKEY · Report · 02 May 2021

Turkey’s, what the politics author had dubbed, “saddle-point political equilibrium”, faded into a governance crisis over the past two weeks, with President Erdogan almost completely losing touch with the basic exigencies of the political and economic ecosystem he is in charge of. As a result, the...

Navalny's organization outlawed for being 'terrorist-linked'
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2021

On April 30 the Foundation Against Corruption (FBK) was banned. Rosinfomonitoring claimed that FBK is connected to terrorism. The government can now freeze FBK bank accounts.A court is likely to rule that FBK is extremist next week. FBK has 50 regional offices. These will be sequestrated. Anyone ...

Covid reopening took place on Labor Day, Covid data looks OK for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2021

The reopening measures announced a few days ago became effective yesterday, as the number of first-shot vaccinated people had exceeded the 4 million mark domestically (4.064 million or 42% of the whole population by this morning). The basic rule is that pretty much everything, including shops, se...

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