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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Exame/Ideia Big Data poll: Presidential succession is polarized between Bolsonaro and Lula, but there is room for a third candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2021

​According to three scenarios tested by the Exame/Ideia Big Data poll, the presidential election of 2022 is polarized between President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Lula (PT). It is important to note that the three possible PSDB candidates – Governors João Doria (SP) and Eduardo Leite (RS)...

The CBR has chosen to accelerate rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

The CBR raised the key by 50 bps to 5.0% and explained it by the need to contain inflation expectations, which according to the CBR, remain elevated. The regulator also mentioned that the domestic economy is recovering faster than was anticipated - on the back of strengthening domestic demand to ...

Russia says there is progress on reunification with Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

On April 22 Putin announced that there has been headway on the goal of Russia and Belarus reuniting. Lukashenka confirmed this. Lukashenka had been in Moscow for talks.Legilsation shall be forthcoming. Lukashenka said he is about to make the most consequential announcement of his presidency. Oppo...

​GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave eases, JCPOA negotiations progress and Saudi-Iran talks take place
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US-Iran talks seem to be making good progress after the US clarified sanctions it could lift. * Secret Saudi-Iran talks were mediated by Iraq, focusing on Yemen and Lebanon. * The latest coronavirus wave in the region may...

2021 Budget published, and the STF confirmed Sergio Moro's partiality in Lula's cases in Curitiba
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2021

​As expected, the 2021 Federal Budget was published with vetoes in the Official Gazette today for a total of R$ 19.8 billion. In an agreement with Congress, President Bolsonaro blocked R$ 9.2 billion in funds for some ministries in order to approve expenses beyond the spending ceiling. Yester...

Czech-Russian row intensifies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

On April 22 Prague said it shall place a limit on the number of people allowed to work at the Russian Embassy. Russia must reduce staff numbers to the same number of people the Czechs are allowed in the Moscow. The deadline is May 31.Moscow has vowed to respond in the same manner.The Czechs have ...

The President is expected to sanction the budget today, and the Supreme Court to rule on jurisdictions in Lula's cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2021

​Today is the last day for President Bolsonaro to sanction the 2021 Federal Budget. An agreement was reached with Congress earlier this week to approve some expenses beyond the spending ceiling, such as health expenses and investment programs for the private sector. The Budget is expected to be s...

​It is geo-politics, stupid
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Apr 2021

As I write these lines, dollar/TL had already skyrocketed to 8.28-30, and I’m willing to bet that short of a miracle the parity shall continue to climb through Friday evening. As Cosmo warned our readership in the last Weekly Tracker, Turkish markets are now marching to the drumbeat of political ...

Putin's annual address announces welfare payments and warns the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2021

On April 21 the president spoke to the nation in his annual address. Putin claimed that Russia and Belarus foiled a dastardly plot to assassinate Lukashenka. He warned any would-be aggressors that vengeance shall be swift and decisive.The president recognized that cost of living is the Number 1 c...

Russia expels Czech diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

On April 19 Moscow expelled 20 Czech diplomats in reprisal for the Czechs' expelling 18 Russian diplomats. It is notable that the Russians expelled more people than the Czechs did. The Czech Embassy in Moscow now has so few diplomats that is almost unmanageable. The Czechs also have two consulate...

Russia investigating YouTube for abusing market dominance
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

On April 19 the government stated that it was looking into YouTube's biased decision making and comment editing. Russia is hemming in foreign social media platforms. The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAMS) is the agency investigating YouTube's policy of closing down channels that are allegedly p...

Economic growth gradually turns positive y-o-y in most sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

As was generally expected, most of Russia’s monthly indicators improved in March and posted positive y-o-y growth. This growth will strengthen in the coming months due to a low base effect in 2Q20. The only exemption in March was retail sales as y-o-y growth remained negative due to a high base i...

​Lockdown watch (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

Can Metro Manila exit the current lockdown? Three weeks since President Rodrigo Duterte placed the nation’s capital and 4 surrounding regions (“NCR+”) under the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and more than a week since the transition to its looser form (mECQ), covid19 statistics ar...

Agreement reached on the 2021 Federal Budget
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2021

An agreement has been reached between the Legislative and Executive branches on the 2021 Federal Budget. Around R$ 100 billion in expenses were approved beyond the spending ceiling – R$ 44 billion of which will go toward the emergency aid program, R$ 20 billion for the vaccination program, R$ 12 ...

A burst of fresh air
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The victory of Guillermo Lasso in the second electoral round for president brought a burst of fresh air not only for the 52% of the population who voted for him, but also for international markets, which reacted positively to the news. As a result, country risk fell a historical 345 points or 30%...

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