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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Turkey Covid Watch - April 12, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2021

Covid cases continue to rise rapidly, while the pace of vaccination has slowed. The tourism industry is now faced with the twin challenges of rising case numbers and expiration of the government-sponsored short-term pay program. After tomorrow’s cabinet meeting, President Erdogan is expected to a...

​Lockdown watch (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Apr 2021

As expected, President Duterte yesterday put Metro Manila and four surrounding provinces (“NCR+”) under modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ), a looser form of lockdown compared with the ECQ in place over the past two weeks. In general, mECQ rules allow movement of workers although on-sit...

Signs of FX intervention tapering support shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Apr 2021

* Pressure for shekel appreciation is mounting as the economy recovers rapidly (hi-tech services and IPOs are surging) and the BoI reduces FX intervention. * Business sector confidence improved sharply in March, with orders increasing in industry and services. * We expect March CPI to re...

Kazkhstan banning foreigners from owning farm land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2021

On April 7 the Kazakh Parliament's lower chamber voted to forbid foreigners from buying or even renting agricultural land. The bill has to go to the upper chamber but it is almost certain to be approved. A 5 year ban was imposed in 2016 but that is due to expire. Some companies rented land before...

Belarus media freedom reduced almost to nil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2021

On April 9 legislators passed a law gravely limiting civil rights, the transmission of information. The expression of extremism was already criminal but the definition has been broadened to be anything that undermines the constitution or public safety. Insulting officials is now a crime as is dis...

Encouraging second round results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 Apr 2021

When 93.46% of votes have been counted --from which just 4% seem to have problems, Guillermo Lasso leads the election with 52.72% of votes while Andres Arauz has 47.28%. Lasso wins in all Andean and Amazon Provinces (except Sucumbios), while Arauz dominates in the coastal region (except Galapagos...

Signs of FX intervention tapering supports shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Apr 2021

Economic recovery supports less monetary accommodation In March, the BoI reduced FX purchases to 2bn USD from 4.9bn in February, allowing shekel appreciation against the basket of 1%. So far in April, the shekel has appreciated by an additional 1%. Mass vaccination and opening up of the economy s...

Lost in space
TURKEY · Report · 11 Apr 2021

As the tensions in Ukraine escalate, Turkey finds herself in a tenuous position between Ukraine, Russia and the US. Starting with the latter, the Halkbank trial and 24th of April Armenian genocide claims will receive top billing in the coming two weeks. In terms of Russia, Putin’s suspicions of A...

Consumer inflation breaks 8% ceiling, further prime rate increase looks inevitable
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Apr 2021

Our CPI estimate for 2021 was one of the most pessimistic among forecasting agencies. Still the reality appeared to be even more relentless. In March CPI sped up to 1.7% m/m (we projected 1.2% m/m) and touched 8.5% year-on-year. For 3m 2021 consumer inflation reached +4.1% ytd. Soaring food price...

​GULF WEEKLY: Iran talks begin, IMF forecasts brighten, but Covid wave worsens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first week of US-Iran indirect nuclear talks in Vienna seemed to make progress. * Coronavirus cases rose sharply in most Gulf states, and Qatar entered a new lockdown. * The IMF’s 2021 forecast increased GCC growth to...

Atypical disinflation in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2021

March inflation slowed to 7 percent month-on-month, from 16 percent in February. That extraordinarily low reading owes partly to a fiscal policy-driven cash crunch as demand for bolivars to pay annual taxes collided with unusually low government spending, causing dollar prices to fall against the...

Balance of payments remains stable in 1Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

Russia’s balance of payments continued to evolve in 1Q21 and looked relatively healthy. The current account surplus reached $16.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $24.4 bn. Even though these numbers are lower than in 2Q20 ($23.9 bn and $33.1 bn), they looked solid. Note that Russia’s oil exports...

CPI-inflation in March: headline rate up, core rates down
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

Once again, the direction for headline CPI-inflation was set by fuel prices in March. The figures were: 0.7% mom, unchanged, but 3.7% yoy, sharply up from 3.1% yoy in February and 2.7% yoy in each of the previous three months. However, the yoy rate of core inflation dropped to 3.9% yoy from 4.1% ...

Russia giving Twitter more time to delete illegal posts or face a ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

On April 4 the government told the social media company that it has until mid May to take down unlawful statements. Roskomnadzor has already slowed Twitter to penalize it. Twitter allegedly permitted posts on narcotics, encouragement of child suicide and posts connected to child porn. Twitter vig...

The burden of public debt management impinges on monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2021

There has long been an awkward feature of the Indian institutional environment: The central bank also conducts public debt management, banking regulation, aspires to control the exchange rate, and controls the operations and regulation of the bond market. Given this backdrop and the changes that ...

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