GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Consumer prices rose by 2.1%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus (and our forecast as well), taking the 12-month CPI inflation slightly higher to 11.9% from 11.7% in September. Reflecting the adverse impact of lira depreciation, domestic-PPI inflation showed a strong month...

Hungary's COVID strategy seen shifting: further restrictions expected later this week

HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the PM Orbán's long-standing resistance to any further Covid restrictions, there have been a number of official comments heard over the last three days, which hinted at upcoming further significant restrictions in response to the constantly deteriorating domestic Covid situation. Today, c...

OMAN: Tawazun plan light on details

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Oman has finally released basic details of its Tawazun fiscal balance plan, which aims to reduce the deficit to 1.7% of GDP by 2024. The proposal has confirmed some of the items that we have been anticipating for over a year, including an initiative to introduce a personal income tax, but the pla...

Politics: Three new factors for the 2021 electoral race

MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Three developments of the last few weeks could significantly alter next year's electoral outlook. The first involves the leadership of the governing Morena party, not only from now until the 2021 midterms but also during much of the run-up to Mexico’s 2024 presidential contest. In a series of pub...

Centrão: from a solution to the problem and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the holiday on Monday, this will be a busy week in Brasília. In the Senate, leaders will try to make a deal to advance important proposals, including autonomy of the Central Bank. On Wednesday, an analysis of presidential vetoes is scheduled, and the government will try to postpone the se...

Final thoughts on the impact of the US election on the GCC

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The outcome of the US elections will have significant implications for the GCC. The possibility of a conflict with Iran would significantly increase in a second Trump term. Under Biden, a new nuclear deal is expected, but wouldn't be easy given the increasing hardline dominance within Iran. A foc...

Economics: Data points to a restrained and uncertain rebound

MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The data published over the past month has provided evidence of a considerable rebound in activity compared to the relative lockdown much of the economy experienced during the second quarter, although not enough to dispel expectations of a very negative economic performance for full-year 2020. So...

OFZ: Supply is evaporating

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October was the most successful month ever for the Finance Ministry in terms of OFZ issuance – it raised R1.5 trln. The main buyers were local commercial banks, which were offered floating-rate bonds with about a 50-bp premium to RUONIA. As a result, the government came very close to its annual b...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely

ISRAEL · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to some improvement in activity since the partial opening of the second closure. Labor productivity in industry has improved sharply, which supports future growth potential. In Q320, non-residents and local institutions sold FX, while the BoI continues significant...

Nagorno-Karabakh & Transcaucasia: Recent dynamics

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October 2020 saw the heaviest fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia since 1994. This conflict has threatened to draw in several adjacent countries. In this report, we provide background on the conflict and examine its most recent geopolitical dynamics, including the Turkish dimension, and give ...

The state of the banking sector during the pandemic

INDONESIA · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The Indonesian economy has been impacted by the pandemic in the past few months. Various sectors of the economy, especially sectors related to people’s mobility, such as transportation, hotels and tourism, have, with some exceptions, been impacted the most. In addition, retail businesses and rest...

Zelensky and Constitutional Court row over anti-corruption

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On October 30 President Zelensky crossed swords with the Constitutional Court when it nullified anti-corruption laws and limited the authority of the National Anti-Corruption Agency (NAZK). Zelensky asked the Rada to annul the court's judgment.The court said that the penalty for making false stat...

Moldova run-off election

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On November 1 a presidential election was held. No candidate won over 50% of the vote. The top two candidates now go to a second round. The lower placed candidates are eliminated. The second round will be on November 15.President Dodon is pro-Russian. The challenger Maia Sandy is pro-EU. Sandu wo...

A new strategy for reforms, a new budget, and the same political uncertainty

PANAMA · Report · 02 Nov 2020

On August 25, the President announced a national dialogue commencing in November, which includes topics such as the reform of the public pension plan, the rationalization of water, education, efficiency of national health services, and the Constitution. Our estimate for the timetable of the debat...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely

ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators point to a gradual recovery The weekly credit card purchases have increased by 20% in the past two weeks (through 28.10) as the economy has opened up. The Google Mobility Index to the workplace has rebounded to close to pre-second-closure levels. Hi-tech service ex...