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Economics: Inflation and wage hike effects on household income and formal jobs
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2021

The inflation readings of Coneval’s food and non-food baskets have both been outpacing headline consumer inflation. The drastic changes in the composition of consumption that Mexican families have undergone during the current coronavirus pandemic imply that the evolution of the NCPI fails to dist...

Demand for refinancing in CBR is decreasing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Today CBR has conducted the placement of 1-month and 1-year REPO loans. Banks raised R50 bln in the first category and expressed no interest in borrowing money for a longer period of time. As a result, the total amount of placement was the minimum since October 2020, when banks received R620 bln ...

Russia’s industrial output continues to gradually recover in January despite fewer working days than a year ago
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the country’s industrial output contracted in January by 2.5% y-o-y. Mining was down by 7.1% and manufacturing by 1.0% y-o-y. In the same report, the statistical agency significantly revised up December 2020 statistics, particularly on the manufacturing side. The 4Q20 and an...

Politics: The geography of political violence
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2021

In the second installment of our analysis of how security conditions have evolved in the past three years and what we can expect from those trends in this crucial election year, we are turning our attention to the specific dynamics of politically related criminal violence at a time when the abili...

Foreign investors were the dominant force in the FX market in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Feb 2021

1. The main sector impacting the shekel in 2020 was “non-residents” (foreign investors), while the Israel private sector had little net impact. 2. The trade deficit expanded in January due to weak exports and strong import growth. 3. We expect inflation in January to reach -0.3% m/m an...

Foreign investors were the dominant force in the FX market in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Feb 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro report:In 2020, FX activity by foreigners was the main factor strengthening the shekel In 2020, foreigners (non-residents) sold 21bn USD in the FX market. The BoI purchased 21.5 bn USD in order to slow shekel appreciation. Israel savings institutions sold 10.2bn FX ...

Playing for time?
TURKEY · Report · 14 Feb 2021

There are no new developments on the S-400s front, which we predict will soon become the hottest issue in Turkish politics. President Erdogan is desperate to have an audience with Biden to market at home, but the White House is not biting. In the coming days, we expect more antics from the Erdoga...

Lavrov: Russia is willing to sever ties with the EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2021

On February 11 the Russian Foreign Minister said that if the EU introduces more sanctions then Moscow is prepared to reduce links with the EU. The EU will hold a meeting on February 22 to consider additional sanctions on Russia, such as travel, bank and asset freezes on Putin's coterie. The reaso...

The IMF mission ends with "no result"
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2021

The IMF virtual mission finished its work, reported the head of the IMF office in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman, according to Interfax Ukraine news agency. Predictably, no staff level agreement was reached. “The discussion was productive; however, more progress is needed towards completing the first re...

Rosneft profits down 80% YoY
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2021

On February 12 Rosneft announced a huge fall in 2020 profits. That is due to the drop in crude prices. The profit was USD 2 billion. Dividend payments are being made nonetheless. BP has a 19.8% stake in Rosneft. Shell and BP declared losses in 2020.In Q3 2020 Rosneft suffered a loss of USD 870 mi...

Good news on credit ratings, less so on inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2021

Both S&P and Fitch Ratings have announced the affirmation of their BBB/Stable ratings on Hungary's long-term sovereign debt today. Both agencies expect a forceful bounce-back of the economy, with 4.6-4.9% recovery of real GDP, this year.CPI-inflation remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy in January. Thi...

Belarus convenes a People's Assembly
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2021

On February 11 Lukashenka declared that a People's Assembly shall be summoned. Its task will be to discuss development until 2026 and to propose constitutional amendments. The Assembly is effectively composed of people selected for their loyalty to the president. Lukashanka called the protests ag...

We extend our inflation outlook to 2022 (1,600%)
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

We have extended our outlook for inflation, exchange rates, and dollar purchasing power to 2022. In our central scenario, inflation slows to 2,200 percent this year and 1,600 percent next year from 2,500 percent in 2020. We continue to forecast under one central and two alternative scenarios. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar commissions LNG expansion, Saudi activist freed, Khamenei digs in heels
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Khamenei and Biden reasserted “you first” positions, and Iran produced uranium metal. * Biden will reverse the terrorism designation of the Houthis in Yemen, although the...

President Ramaphosa’s 2021 State of the Nation Address offers a mixed scorecard
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

President Cyril Ramaphosa opened this year’s Parliament and delivered the 2021 State of the Nation Address (SONA) under an undoubtedly reshaped global and domestic economic environment. Usually a glamorous and expensive affair, the opening of Parliament in 2021 was scaled down to 30 Members of Pa...

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