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Russia’s current account widens in January which creates a solid base for economic recovery
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

Russia’s current account and trade surplus widened in January relative to previous months. The current account surplus reached $6.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $9.4 bn. In 4Q20 as a whole, the current account surplus at $5.5bn, and the trade surplus was at $21.5 bn. Based on the CBR prelimi...

Politics: Security problems intersect with vote
MEXICO · Report · 08 Feb 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed the country’s grave problems of insecurity off the front pages and the lead segments of news programs. This lack of attention also reflects the current government’s decision to push public security concerns to the back burner and a society that has grown numb to s...

The timing of structural reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2021

The government may send Congress a bill on the taxation of fuel. In the House, the agenda includes proposals on Central Bank autonomy, over-indebtedness and currency exchange laws. The installation of the Joint Budget Committee is also on the agenda. Discussions about emergency aid payments conti...

Priorities and Uncertainties: Fiscal and Monetary Policies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Feb 2021

Brazil continues to be under the influence of forces acting in opposite directions – the widening and increasing pace of vaccination and a rising number of Covid cases – whose result will determine how much the economy decelerates in the first quarter of 2021. In this circumstance, a few days ago...

An Unexpected Second Electoral Round
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021 · 1 response

When 97.5% of the votes have been counted, Andres Arauz maintains an undisputable first place on Sunday's presidential elections with close to 32% of the votes. On the other hand, the second place is still disputed between Yaku Perez (19.8%) and Guillermo Lasso (19.6%). This difference has been f...

Economics: Postponing fiscal reckoning with no plan
MEXICO · Report · 08 Feb 2021

The administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been proactive in fiscal matters, but with a decidedly short-run focus that was clearly on display in the 2020 fiscal results. For starters, the government delivered a real-term 0.8% increase in federal government tax revenues last y...

Disposable income increases by 2.3% in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Feb 2021

Disposable income in 2020 increased by over 2% due to government transfers. M1 is up 31% y/y in December due to a limited ability to consume; this is likely to create pent-up demand and some inflationary pressure. The Bank of Israel purchased 6.8bn USD in January, but in the short term, Israel’s ...

Hungary buys Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021

On February 7 Hungary licensed Sputnik V, and 40,000 doses of it have already arrived in the country. Hungary has ordered a further 2 million doses. Hungary is an EU member state but it has fractious relations with the rest of the EU. The Prime Minister is notably pro-Russian. No other EU country...

Disposable income increases by 2.3% in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Feb 2021

Highlights: Disposable income increased in 2020 due to government support Total wages paid declined by 3.8%, but government support to the unemployed totaled 27bn ILS (through November). M1 increased by 32% in 2020 with less opportunity to consume. This pent-up demand is likely to support some in...

Focusing on the essentials
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2021 · 1 response

We urge our readers to keep their eyes firmly focused on the essentials, amidst the feel-good mood encompassing the EMs and Turkey. The nation is nowhere close to reaching herd immunity via vaccination, as new strains are running rampant in the population. Each day with lockdowns and shop clos...

Russia mulls investment anonymity for Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2021 · 2 responses

Moscow is thinking about allowing those who put money into Crimea to keep their identities secret. The government is eager to generate more business on the disputed peninsula. In 2014 Russia took (or, as they would say, "liberated") Crimea from Ukraine. The US and EU imposed sanctions on business...

Turkey and Azerbaijan conduct combined military manoeuvres on Armenian frontier
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 2 the two countries' armies exercised in eastern Turkey. This was close to the frontier with Armenia. Turkish troops are openly stationed in Azerbaijan. Up till now Azerbaijan has not sent a significant number of troops to Turkey.The ostensible reason for the drill was to practice fig...

Ukraine to receive 12 million doses of the vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 President Zelensky announced that his country will be given millions more doses of AstraZeneca and Novavax. The vaccines are being purchased from India mostly. The first consignment will arrive in late February 2021.The government has been castigated for not obtaining Western vaccin...

Russia fines nickel giant USD 2 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 a court fined Nornickel for the environmental disaster it caused in 2020 when 21,000 tonnes of diesel was spilled in the Krasnoyarsk Region. It was the worst disaster to hit the Arctic.The fine imposed is a record. Nornickel has argued the fine should be only USD 280 million. The ac...

Russia declares several EU diplomats PNG
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

On February 4 Moscow announced the expulsion of certain Swedish, Polish and German diplomats. The diplomats supposedly attended unauthorized protests on January 23. The protests were for the release of Alexei Navalny. All demonstrations in Russia require police permission. The EU's foreign minist...

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