GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The scare provoked by the information that the debt/GDP ratio will reach 100% at the end of 2020 and continue to grow thereafter is one thing. The foreboding generated by its consequences, which are severe, is another thing, much different. The higher risk is being reflected in asset prices: both...

Shallower recession in 2020, and stronger rebound in 2021

PERU · Forecast · 19 Oct 2020

We tweaked our forecasts last week, on the back of the most recent reports. We now expect a shallower recession in 2020, with real GDP contracting by 13.7% y/y, less than our July forecast of -17% y/y. We also forecast a stronger rebound in 2021, reaching 11.1% y/y (from 6.5% y/y previously). The...

South Africa’s economic reconstruction and recovery plan offers little new

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Oct 2020

The third and last phase of South Africa’s response to Covid-19, the economic reconstruction and recovery plan, was delivered by President Ramaphosa on October 15. The first two phases outlined at the beginning of the pandemic response were themed "preserve" and "recover". The former comprised he...

The recession and deflation support further accommodation

ISRAEL · Report · 19 Oct 2020 · 1 response

The deflationary environment persists, with core inflation down -0.4% y/y in September. Economic indicators point to a sharp deceleration of activity due to the second shutdown. Further monetary accommodation is expected from the Bank of Israel on Thursday. A negative sovereign rating outlook for...

Economics: Surprise details in the government's pension reform

MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2020

Something troubling happened between the time the business community and President López Obrador announced a plan to reform the public pension system and the reform bill the administration delivered late last month. The praiseworthy purpose of the reform as agreed in July is to increase the n...

Politics: Another poll to decide Morena’s future

MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2020

When the INE-supervised public opinion survey to choose the next leader of López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement produced a tie the week before last between Porfirio Muñoz Ledo and Mario Delgado, we got another look at the intensity of the infighting in the party as well as a reminder of...

US rejects Putin's proposal to extend START

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2020

On October 16 the US government said that prolonging the START Treaty by 1 year is out of the question. Putin had suggested doing so while a long term replacement is negotiated. Putin had wanted there to be no freeze on nuclear warheads during the extension.The US suggested a one year extension b...

Personal debt problem in Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2020

On October 15 a report was published on debt in Russia. Overdue loans are at an all time high. 12.5 million loan repayments are over 90 days behind. The National Association of Professional Collection Agencies revealed this. The credit bureau Equifax was also involved in the study. A further mill...

The recession and deflation support further accommodation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Oct 2020

Highlights:Inflation in September declined by -0.1% m/m and -0.7% y/y. Core inflation reached -0.4% y/y following -0.5% in August. Eight out of the ten major CPI items were zero or negative y/y. The PPI (excluding energy) declined by 1.9% y/y. Deflation in Israel is due to the steady shekel appre...

Where does the buck stop?

TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2020 · 2 responses

On Saturday midnight Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a second ceasefire, which may prove durable unlike the first one. Turkey began testing of the Russian made S-400s on Saturday, which raises the threat of the new Congress immediately attending to passing the CAATSA legislation on Turkey. New t...

New ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2020

On October 17 the two Caucasian countries agreed a ceasefire effective at midnight. France, Russia and the US all midwifed this agreement as the Minsk Group. Just before the ceasefire an Armenian missile hit Azerbaijan and allegedly killed 13 civilians. The fighting since September 27 killed over...

OMAN: S&P downgrades to record low of B+

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Oct 2020

S&P's downgrade is a result of a larger than previously expected hit from the current crisis and despite greater confidence in the government's commitment to fiscal reform. We had expected Oman would try to issue a bond before the scheduled rating update but nonetheless it could still come to mar...

Tinkoff ends tentative USD 5.5 billion deal with Yandex causing share plunge

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

On October 16 it was announced that the mooted merger between Russia's main tech company and a bank is off. Tinkoff bank's founder Oleg Tinkov pulled away from negotiations. Tinkoff's holding company TCS is listed in the London Stock Exchange.Tinkoff and Yandex said that they had an agreement in ...

Kyrgyz Parliament confirms Japarov as president and prime minister

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

On October 16 Prime Minister Japarov was confirmed by Parliament as president as well as PM. President Jeenbekov resigned. He said it was to prevent bloodshed.The Speaker of Parliament was supposed to take over as president but said no. The presidency seems a poisoned chalice because the country ...

Kyrgyz PM claims presidential power as president resigns

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

On October 14 Sadyr Japarov said that he was assuming presidential authority as President Jeenbekov resigned. The Speaker of Parliament is supposed to become the president in this scenario but declined to do so. Only days ago Japarov was in jail for hostage taking. Since disputed elections on Oct...