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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consumption is still weak and bond markets still confused
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 May 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While there is no question that China has an ugly demographic evolution ahead of it, much of the response by analysts and the press to last Tuesday’s census release has been overly apocalyptic. What matters far more than the simple demographic chan...

Turkey Covid Watch - May 17, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2021

Cases continued to decline this week and are now at less than one quarter of their peak 4 weeks ago. Symptomatic covid cases also declined sharply. A 17-day lockdown ended at 5 a.m. today (May 17), though overnight and weekend curfew and other restrictions remain in place, along with notable unce...

Congress to discuss presidential vetoes, and additional important testimony in the Covid CPI this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2021

​This week, the leaders of Congress are expected to meet to discuss presidential vetoes and the bill that deals with the reorganization of funds in the Federal Budget. If an agreement is reached, a session of Congress should be scheduled on Thursday to vote on these matters. In relation to the CO...

The South African business environment and post-Covid economic performance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2021

​The overall business environment in South Africa has been challenging, especially since the great recession, with factors such as policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages resulting in low business confidence. Against this backdrop, the performance of the country’s private enterprises ...

MNB vice governor essentially announced the start of a tightening cycle this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 May 2021

MNB vice governor Virág spoke this morning. Because of intensifying inflation risks, stemming mainly from the economic impact of post-Covid reopening, 'it is necessary to get prepared for increasing the base rate', he said according to Portfolio.hu. The MNB may raise the base rate, as a precautio...

April’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 May 2021

Headline inflation in April increased by 0.3% m/m (0.8% y/y, up from 0.2% last month). This was below market expectations which were in the 0.4%-0.5% range (m/m). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy items and fresh produce) accelerated slightly to 0.45% y/y from 0.21% last month. The major i...

Schrödinger’s Turkey
TURKEY · Report · 16 May 2021

The politics section starts with the bold assertion that Turkey is no longer Erdogan’s country, which means that a new set of tools are required to analyze its politics and the economy, as Erdogan’s power on the state and sway over the voters, eclipse. We present evidence from polls seconding thi...

Oil spill in north Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2021

On May 13 an oil spill in the Komi Republic led to a state of emergency being declared in the area. 7 tons of crude spilled into rivers and onto the land. A pipeline accident at a facility run by Lukoil was probably the cause of this.The pipeline connected the Oshkoye oil field to a storage facil...

Rosneft makes a profit again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2021

On May 14 the Russian oil major announced that it turned a profit in Q1 2021. Russia's deal with OPEC led to this rosy news. The parastatal company made a net profit of USD 2 billion. It made a loss of over USD 2 billion in Q1 2020.Several other oil companies have turned profits due to an uptick ...

Russia declares USA and Czechs to be ''unfriendly''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2021

On May 14 Moscow gave a new designation to the Czech Republic and the United States. They also forbade the USA from hiring any Russians at their embassy. The Czechs are banned from hiring over 19 Russians in their embassy.The US Embassy in Moscow is offering consular services to US citizens until...

​The formally approved 2021 Russian budget is likely to be balanced
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the oil-and-gas revenues soared on a m-o-m basis and reached R893 bn in April 2021 (versus monthly average R540bn in 1Q21). This increase could be partially explained by lagged effects of the increased oil price earlier in the year. A bit weaker ruble in April a...

CPI testimony this week did not reflect well on the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2021

Yesterday in the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI), the former director of Pfizer in Brazil detailed the laboratory’s offer of vaccines to the Brazilian government. He confirmed that the Brazilian government’s response was delayed, and ultimately the government missed out on a few mi...

​GULF WEEKLY: Omani spending rises, solid Saudi Q1 GDP, Israel normalization tested
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The worst Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 2014 presents a challenge to Gulf-Israel normalization. * US-Iran talks entered a critical phase, just two weeks before Iranian electioneering begins. * Saudi Arabia confirmed ...

Interest rates and shadow banking in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 May 2021

China is attempting to reduce risk in the financial system. This includes controlling monetary policy and interest rates. However, the substantial participation of shadow banking in total capital flows – ranging from heavily regulated to lightly regulated forms – means that Beijing has a limited ...

​Lockdown watch (6)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 May 2021

Metro Manila and 4 nearby provinces (NCR+) will revert to general community quarantine (GCQ) tomorrow, May 15, although “heightened restrictions” will apply. The decision to follow only incremental lifting of restrictions reflects on the one hand, the continued downtrend in covid19 cases over the...

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