GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Due to the October 12 holiday and the municipal elections, this will be an empty week in Brasília, without any relevant votes in the House or Senate. Supreme Court Minister Celso de Mello retires on Tuesday, October 13. On Thursday, the Central Bank will release the IBC-Br (GDP preview) for Augus...

Covid-19 weekly update - week ending October 11

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Oct 2020

October 1 through 8 was China’s Golden Week, when families gather to celebrate the holidays and presumably spend money. Despite the holiday period, though, consumer spending was relatively flat. Bloomberg did point out some positive trends, including higher major retail and catering enterprise sa...

We expect the fiscal deficit to reach 12% GDP this year, debt/GDP: 74%

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020

In September, the fiscal deficit reached 14.9bn ILS compared to 1.9bn in September of last year. The deficit/GDP ratio in the LTM reached 9.1%, from 8.1% last month and 3.7% in 2019.In the first nine months of the year, non-Covid related expenditure increased by only 0.9% y/y, while Covid related...

Economics: PPP Infrastructure Plan, good news but uncertainty remains

MEXICO · Report · 12 Oct 2020

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador along with the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) released a text last week entitled Actions and Projects for Supporting the Economic Recovery confirming 39 infrastructure projects that are supposed to contribute to reactivating the country´s economy. Th...

Politics: More of the opposition starts to move

MEXICO · Report · 12 Oct 2020

A National Anti-AMLO Front, better known as Frenaa, has emerged by default as the main public expression of opposition to López Obrador’s administration, thanks to the paralysis and irrelevance in which opposition parties remain engulfed. Over the past four months, the front has organized ever la...

OMAN: VAT law decree issued and bond now likely this week

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Oct 2020

Sultan Haitham just issued Royal Decree 121/2020 for the VAT Law. We are trying to get hold of a copy of the final draft. News reports say it will begin in "six months" which we are guessing means 1 April, but have yet to confirm this (OO). When parliament approved the law six weeks ago it recomm...

The lack of a coherent fiscal policy could support a negative rating outlook

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Oct 2020

• The Director General of the MoF, Karen Turner, announced her resignation yesterday, five months after her appointment • The lack of a coherent fiscal policy and a general political instability could support a negative rating outlook. • Economic growth continues to suffer from the second closu...

President of Tajikistan re-elected

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2020

On October 11 Tajikistan announced that President Emomali Rahmon was re-elected with 91% of the vote. The presidential term is 7 years. 4 virtual unknowns ran against him and garnered almost no media attention. The media is entirely state controlled. Turnout was 855. The economy is suffering badl...

Kyrgyzstan appoints a new PM but some refuse to recognise him

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2020

On October 10 parliament elected Sadyr Japarov as a prime minister. Only days ago he was rescued from prison by a crowd of hundreds. He was there for kidnapping. This comes after a disputed parliamentary election. Since Japarov as freed a court overturned his conviction. Some politicians say he i...

Lukashenka talks to jailed opponents as he carries out a new crackdown

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2020

On October 10 President Lukashenka met several leading opponents in prison. He met Victor Babarika who tried to run against the president and a Belarusian-American who is married to a US diplomat. This is the closest the president has come to negotiating with the opposition.On October 10 the UK w...

The lack of a coherent fiscal policy could support a negative rating outlook

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Oct 2020

Politics: The Director General of the MoF, Karen Turner, announced her resignation yesterday, five months after her appointment. She follows in the footsteps of the Director of the Budget and the General Accountant of the MoF. The professional team of the MoF is greatly troubled by the lack of an...

Inflation picks up some

VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Oct 2020

Consumer prices rose by 29 percent month on month in September, faster than the August pace of 22 percent. The central bank reports 28 percent in its first timely inflation report in five years. Our base case inflation forecast for 2020 is 2389 percent. The dollar price rises by 1,728% and cl...

If something cannot go on forever...

TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2020 · 1 response

Attentions in the political arena were briefly diverted to foreign affairs, which promise to be fleeting. The decision to “open” UN protected TRNC district of Varosha turned out to be nothing more than a ploy to help out the pro-Erdogan candidate in Sunday’s presidential elections. The testing of...

Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to ceasefire

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2020

On October 10 at 12 noon a ceasefire took effect in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. Moscow brokered talks on October 9. After 13 days of fighting the guns are silent. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was vital in securing the deal. He is half-Armenian. This ceasefire is a success for Moscow,...

The Dominican government steps back and withdraws the proposed tax increase

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Oct 2020 · 2 responses

Under the justification of being a Government that listens to its citizens, President Luis Abinader, in a speech last night to the nation, made public the decision to withdraw the proposal of creating new transitory taxes for 2021. The latter tax reform was considered in the Public Budget Bill fo...