GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Central bank reported that according to its preliminary estimate, the current account surplus reached $24.1 bn in 9m20, while in 3Q20, it was $2.5 bn. As according to the revised numbers, the current account balance temporarily turned into a deficit in 2Q20 (which was -0.5 bn), the ruble sinc...

President of Kyrgyzstan offers to resign

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2020

Sooroonbai Jeenbekov said on October 9 that he intends to resign once the cabinet has chosen a replacement. Disputed parliamentary elections on October 5 led to days of protests. The president lost control of some of the capital. He is unpopular partly due to his perceived closeness to Raimbek Ma...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait CP approved, PMIs rebound and Qatar eases investment restrictions

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Oct 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Kuwait's parliament approved the Emir’s 80-year-old brother Meshal as Crown Prince. * PMIs rebounded back to expansion in UAE and Saudi; Qatar also expanded, but more slow...

China’s weak recovery

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Oct 2020

China’s recovery has been driven by rapid improvement in the Covid situation, along with monetary injections, state-driven fixed asset investment, and a strong property market. Fourth quarter activity will be constrained, however, by weak disposable income, continued unemployment, and growing deb...

Inflation and the budget: two pieces of genuine good news today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2020

Consumer prices unexpectedly fell by 0.4% September, bringing down the yoy headline CPI-inflation rate to 3.4% from August's 3.9%. In addition, the central government budget produced a marginal, HUF 9bn cash deficit only in the same month, pushing the cumulative (nine-month) deficit ratio down to...

With proposed tax increase, the new government's honeymoon is over

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 08 Oct 2020 · 2 responses

With a proposal for the creation of new taxes incorporated into the 2021 proposed national budget, the customary honeymoon for a new government has ended even before President Luis Abinader has completed his first 100 days in power. The government has sent to Congress a 2021 budget that concomita...

Guedes ruled out extending emergency aid; Maia supports him

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2020

The Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, ruled out the possibility of extending the emergency aid to 2021. According to Guedes, the aid paid to informal workers will end in December. The minister believes a possible extension of the aid is unreasonable. The President of the Lower House, Rod...

Mauricio Pozo, the New Minister of Finance

ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

Richard Martinez quits after finishing what we consider a remarkable job during the time he has been Minister of Finance. He achieved the renegotiation of private bonds, and has been able to consolidate a new agreement with the IMF that, given its conditions and scope, is quite unprecedented. Mau...

Polish anti-monopoly commission fines Gazprom USD 7 billion

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

On October 7 the Russian state gas company was fined in relation to the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. The Polish authorities said that the pipeline is bad for Polish consumers, is anti-competitive and imperils their energy security. Poland is worried about not getting enough LNG. They believe price hik...

Monetary challenges: To print or not to print?

UKRAINE · Forecast · 07 Oct 2020

Cooperation has been suspended with the IMF, amid stronger-than-expected economic performance: this is the new Ukrainian reality. The trick question is how the government will cover a fiscal gap of up to 6% of GDP, now that the chances of IMF credits resuming are nearly nil. Meanwhile, calls are ...

Russia says its pact with Armenia does not cover Nagorno Karabakh

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

On October 7 Moscow reiterated that its military assistance treaty with Armenia does not apply to Nagorno Karabakh. This region legally belongs to Azerbaijan but it controlled by Armenia and has had an Armenian majority for centuries. Moscow is making this statement to show that it is eager to av...

OFZ issuance: Finance Ministry fulfilled 17.3% of quarterly plan in one auction day

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

On Wednesday the Russian Finance Ministry placed a record high amount of OFZ. During two auctions it managed to place a 10-year floater (linked to RUONIA rate) worth to R316 bln and a 5-year fixed-rate paper worth to R30 bln. In such a way the Government covered more than 17% of the quarterly pla...

KUWAIT: Meshal al-Ahmed appointed crown prince - credit negative

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

Update: while we were drafting this quick note the formal announcement was made that Sheikh Nawaf has indeed appointed his brother Meshal (also transliterated as Mishaal) as crown prince.Meshal, aged 80, has been deputy chief of the National Guard since 2004, taking over the role when Nawaf, who ...

Destructive ambiguity takes its toll on the currency

TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020 · 2 responses

After a brief lull, driven by hopes of Ankara finally stepping towards economic orthodoxy and calm-headed negotiations in foreign policy disputes, dollar/TL pair shot up to 7.84 early Wednesday morning. This is understandable, as Military Chiefs of Staff announced test firing of Russian-made S-40...

Protesters seize Kyrgyz capital as the president is in hiding

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

On October 6 the Kyrgyzstan Election Commission caved in to pressure from protesters who seized some key buildings in the capital and freed the jailed ex-president. Prime Minister Bornonov has resigned.Parliamentary election results were declared on October 5. Parties supporting President Jeenbek...