Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

War abroad, elections at home
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2024

With two months left to critical municipal elections, CHP incumbents lead in the key battlefront cities of Ankara and Istanbul. Yet, CHP’s allies turned against the party, while the Erdogan-Bahceli alliance is ironclad – and Erdogan has already opened the fiscal floodgates to win. The politics au...

MPC: Done for now
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% (see chart) and ended the tightening cycle – at least in the near term -- in line with expectations. “Taking into account the lagged impact of monetary tightening, the Committee assesses that the monetary tightness ...

Good tidings, we have another crisis
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

Good tidings from Turkey, which after a hiatus of two and half weeks conjured up another “crisis” involving the CBRT Governor Ms. Hafize Gaye Erkan and her family. She is facing charges of nepotism and using Bank resources for personal use. This is a rapidly evolving story, which is difficult to ...

PKK raid, Istanbul race, falling reserves
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2024

AKP nominated former Environmental and Urban Affairs Minister Murat Kurum to challenge Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who seems significantly ahead in early poll data. Yet, Erdogan’s massive propaganda advantage and the strategies of pro-Kurdish party DEM may yet result in surprises. Meanwhile, g...

New year, old agenda
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2024

Our politics coverage starts with a preview of four major events that will define the course of Turkish politics. President Erdogan and nationalist ally Bahceli are likely to emerge victorious from end-March municipal polls, after which they will tackle the unfinished business of amending the con...

Inflation ends 2023 at just under 65%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation was 2.9%, m/m, in December broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence ending the year at 64.8%, up from 62% in November, which is in line with the CBRT’s latest forecast (mid-point %65) announced in the October Inflation Report. Monthly D...

Atilla Yesilada: CBRT delivers as expected, more to come
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

I’m subbing for Murat Ucer who is in transit to share my impression of CBRT MPC decision and statement. Murat Ucer will update as and when he sees fit. Gaye Erkan and Co. delivered as widely expected by surveys, raising the policy rate by 250 basis points to 42.5%. The accompanying statement sugg...

Correction: The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Since the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, there has been visible improvement in policies, which led to tangible gains, more so than we had expected. Among others, the CBRT reserves have improved, as the so-called “KKM” accounts have declined notably; the budget deficit is set to finish the y...

Good-bye Sweden, hello Greece, please EU, please
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2023

I’m writing this Market Brief at 13:00 Istanbul time on Monday. The time stamp is very important, because the shelf-life on the product is probably no more than 24 hours. Alas, Dear Reader, while Erdogan displays uncharacteristic resolve in orthodox economic policy, his foreign policy is all over...

Correction in my recent Market Brief
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

I've inadvertedly stated IYIP garnered ca 8% of the national vote in May 2023. The correct figure  is 9.6%. 

IYIP’s fateful choice may shape the outcome of municipal elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2023

By a 35-14 vote, Iyi Party’s top decision-making body GIK turned down a request by CHP chair Ozgur Ozel to cooperate in municipal elections. The decision to go solo in the next ballot to gauge its grass-roots support is a fateful choice by IYIP that has profound implications for the party, munici...

An encouraging print in a long journey
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices increased by 3.3%, m/m, in November, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%-3.8.%. Twelve-month CPI-inflation nevertheless edged up to 62%, or to its highest level since the beginning of the year, up from 61.4% a month ago. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.8%, with the 12-month...

Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2023

Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish ...

Anemic growth, signs of rebalancing
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2023

The Turkish economy grew by 5.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, broadly in line with expectations, while in working-day and seasonally adjusted (WDSA) terms, growth slowed visibly to 0.3%, q/q, after surging in the previous quarter, which, incidentally, has been revised down slightly to ...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.