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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The local election result is a warning to the ruling JLP despite what appears to be a narrow win
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Mar 2024
While the final count is not quite yet finished for Jamaica’s local government, on Monday, February 26, the ruling JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) appears to have eked a very narrow victory in terms of the number of municipalities it controlled, although a number were effectively tied. Confusingly, bo...
The IBGE published the GDP at 2.9% for 2023, city halls will hold a demonstration in Brasilia next week in support of the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate discusses changes to electoral legislation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024
Today’s highlight is the publication of the GDP result, which was reported by the IBGE at 2.9% for 2023. The result strengthens Minister Fernando Haddad in the government and increases his prestige within the National Congress. The National Confederation of Municipalities is organizing a demonstr...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: What is Armenia's Pashinyan strategy to stay in power?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Mar 2024
PM Pashinyan’s geopolitical equilibristics have left Armenia uncomfortably exposed in the ever-changing regional dynamics in the aftermath of the 3rd Karabakh War. The series of Russia-unfriendly steps undertaken by Pashinyan, including joining the International Criminal Court and suspending part...
Sharpening talk between the MNB and the government has a negative impact on the forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Mar 2024
The forint has weakened by 1-2% in EURHUF terms from its level held immediately before the Monetary Council's latest rate-setting meeting on February 27. This could be traced back to mainly to the acceleration of the monthly pace of rate-cutting, of course. But the MNB made an attempt to counter ...
The complex awakening from the Kirchnerist "Matrix"
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Feb 2024
Leaving aside Mauricio Macri’s four-year mandate, Argentina has been immersed over the last 23 years in an economic environment defined by taxing state interventions into basic individual economic decisions. Repeatedly, the “Kirchnerist” governments tackled macroeconomic imbalances by applying mi...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024
A couple of days ago the CBR published a note with comments to its latest version of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast, and it now appears that the regulator expects that banking sectors' net liquidity will turn into deficit in 2H24 (while in recent months it was in surplus of a decent size ...
Growing at a comfortable rate
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Feb 2024
The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result, with Q4 2023 GDP at 5.04%, above the 4.94% annual growth for Q3 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 0.45%, following the regular cycle. With the rate of growth for Q4 slightly higher than 5%, o...
Breakaway region of Moldova asks for ''Russian protection''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024
On February 29 Transnistria made the request, saying it faces and economic war by Moldova. Transnistria unofficially broke away from Moldova in 1991 at the breakup of the USSR. Some Transnistrians have even suggested becoming part of Russia. Some people there are ethnically Russian and everyone t...
Putin's State of the Nation address
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2024
On February 29 the president delivered his annual oration to Russian legislators. He sounded truculent and upbeat. The speech praised Russian soldiers' valor and assured people of victory in Ukraine. President Putin assured his hearers that Russia is beating sanctions. The speech focused on socia...
Damn the torpedoes...
TURKEY · Report · 29 Feb 2024
The Turkish economy grew by 4%, y/y, and 1%, q/q, in the final quarter of last year, with the latter, in particular, sharply stronger than we and, as far as we can tell, the consensus had expected. In 2023 as a whole, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 5.5% in 2022 (Graphs 1-2).
The government submitted a payroll tax bill to Congress, Pacheco will meet with Senator Barros to discuss the carbon credit market bill, and Lula is expected to meet with Senate leaders next week to improve their relationship
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Feb 2024
Yesterday, the government submitted a payroll tax bill to Congress. The text will replace the provisional measure (MP) that was issued in December last year and was poorly received among legislators. Pacheco also stated that he has a meeting in the next few days with Senator Leila Barros (PDT-DF)...
QATAR: An upsizing in the massive LNG expansion could drive further rating upgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2024
* The North Field expansion is being upsized by a quarter (16m t/yr of LNG). * A survey of North Field’s western quadrant has boosted estimated reserves by 14%. * The expansion could boost fiscal revenue by around 2% of GDP from 2030. * LNG demand is forecast to grow strongly in the coming dec...
Lula signed a provisional measure that revokes the resumption of the payroll tax, the House approved the urgent status for the bill on crypto, and the STF will adjudicate the INSS lifetime review today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2024
Yesterday, Lula signed a provisional measure that revokes the resumption of the payroll tax, but it has not yet been published in the Federal Official Gazette. The measure was negotiated with the National Congress. Also yesterday, the House approved the urgent status for the bill dealing with cry...
Zelensky in Saudi Arabia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2024
On February 27 the Ukrainian President met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who effectively rules Saudi Arabia due to incapacity of his father the king. The two leaders discussed the Ukraine War. Zelensky has a peace proposal that he put to the Saudis. It involves Ukrainians who were deported to...
Belarus parliamentary elections held
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2024
On February 26 all the results were announced. Turnout was 74%. Only pro-Lukashenko parties were allowed to run. These included the Communist Party and the Liberal Democrats. Several opposition parties were refused registration for the elections. Some people claim the government pressured them to...