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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ukraine claims to have sunk Russian warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

On December 27 Kyiv said the landing ship Novocherkassk was sunk by Ukrainian jets in the Russian port of Feodosia. Russia stated that the ship was damaged but did not state there were any casualties. A Russian Telegram channel said there were 77 sailors aboard the ship at the time of the attack....

Maduro's New Year's resolutions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Dec 2023

On the surface, Nicolás Maduro is closing 2023 with a positive balance. He overcame challenging situations and looks ready to face 2024 with better control of the playing field. But next year, he must achieve something his political skill does not guarantee: to enthuse Venezuelans to obtain a cre...

An improving trade balance with China
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2023

For many years, China ranked first in trade with Indonesia compared to Indonesia's trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, anything that happened in China might affect Indonesia. That is why it is interesting to watch the trade balance between Indonesia and China at a time when there has bee...

Post-COVID fatigue
CHILE · Report · 28 Dec 2023 · 1 response

The latest Central Bank Monetary Policy Report offers a surprisingly positive outlook for economic activity. But, in our view, activity remains stagnant. The only good news comes from the construction sector, which appears to be at a potential turning point, after hitting historical lows. The ind...

Managing debt will be a major issue for Beijing in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Dec 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * The problem of what to do with the debt will probably dominate economic policy-making discussions in Beijing in 2024. As of now, there seems to be a split between economists, who want to address the quality of economic activity, and non-economists,...

EU payments have started to flow to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023 · 1 response

When the EU Commission unblocked Hungary's access to €10.2bn of cohesion policy funds on December 13, the key question became whether they would actually start to pay out the affected funds according to the regular procedure or they would start postponing and delaying actual transfers, waiting fo...

Seven predictions for China in 2024
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Dec 2023

In this report, I give my sometimes “out-of-the box” predictions for China in 2024. These include views on US-China relations, the upcoming Taiwan elections and the importance of the US dollar to China.

Kazakhstan’s budgetary performance markedly improves in November amid a one-off effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

A few days ago, the country’s Ministry of Finance published detailed budgetary 11M23 statistics, and these data were not immune from surprises. Previously, we repeatedly broached these issues and mentioned that a weaker tenge was required to finance all the amended expenditures. Tax collection wa...

Japan giving air defense to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

On December 28 a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman fulminated against the decision, saying there will be repercussions. On December 22 Japan made the announcement to donate Patriot missiles to the US, which in turn allows the US to donate other Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Japanese law prohibi...

Economic growth steady in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2023

Rosstat reported that the economy was on the same track as in the previous months as the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of the national economy) grew by 5.1% y-o-y - both in November and 11M23. The industrial output grew by 3.6% y-o-y in 11M23 only as...

US sanctioning banks that facilitate Russia's war effort
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

On December 22 the US made the announcement. These are secondary sanctions on financial institutions that in any way expedite the Russian defense sector. Any institution that does this will be blocked from the US financial system. Some in the US are worried that this will hasten countries moving ...

Will the BoI reduce rates on Monday? Probably not
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

Will the BoI reduce rates on Monday? Probably not The next rate decision on January 1st could really go either way (rate cut or hold), although we are leaning towards a rate hold decision. The factors supporting easing include the sharp decline in inflation in November (headline: 3.3% y/y, core: ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

Dec 14 Eurasian Development Bank: The Bank updated its 2023 GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 4.8%. The Bank also lifted the 2024 growth figure (from 4.4% to 5%). Dec 15 Government: Kazakhstan doesn't want to agree with a tariff increase (by 43.4%) for pumping its oil to Germany through Russia/Bel...

Ukraine retreats from eastern city
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

On December 26 the most senior general in the Ukrainian Army, Valery Zaluzhni, announced that his forces had pulled out of Maryinka. He claimed that the city had been totally destroyed by Russian bombardment. Russia claims to have seized the whole city. The city has been under attack since the st...

Our projection for 2024: The economy is uncertain, the NFPS budget is under discussion, and it formally complies with the fiscal law
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2023

The year 2023 will be a reminiscence of how sudden events can alter the course of economic projections. While the first semester of 2023 witnessed robust growth of 8.8%, driven by the traditional sectors, we anticipate a slowdown in the second half of the year, culminating in a 1.9% contraction i...

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