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Two battles in sight and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This is the final week of activity in the National Congress, which recesses on Friday, December 22. Before this, the votes must be completed on the MP for the ICMS subsidy, online betting, the LDO and the 2024 Federal Budget. Tax Reform will be enacted on Wednesday, and Lula will lead a ministeri...

Fiscal Stimuli, Monetary Accommodation and GDP Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2023

The strong GDP growth in 2023, of 3.1%, is much more a consequence of actual GDP, spurred by aggregate demand, than by growth of potential GDP. No matter how attractive they are, the narratives about increased productivity have no empirical support. Contrary to government and household consumptio...

This is the final week of activity before Congress recesses, the Senate should vote on the ICMS subsidy MP tomorrow, and the House may vote on the online sports betting bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This is the final week of activity in Congress, with important issues to be concluded. Congress recesses on Friday, December 22. Work will resume on February 2. On Tuesday, December 19, the Senate should vote on Provisional Measure Nº 1,185, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own C...

KUWAIT: The new Amir's choice of crown prince is critical for the country's future
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2023

* Sheikh Mishal, age 83, succeeded as Amir on Saturday, after the death of his brother Nawaf. * He is a conservative figure with a background in national security and has been effective ruler for two years. * His choice of crown prince will set the tone for Kuwait in a critical decade. * The c...

CCA Highlights: Armenia still in the throes of deflation, Azerbaijan to face early presidential elections, Georgia earns EU candidate status, Tajikistan names new cost of Rogun dam
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Dec 2023

We comment on key macro-related events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Central Bank of Armenia cuts policy rates by 25bpts to 9.25 percent Armenia: Deflation returns in Nov Armenia: Outflows to UAE reach record highs Armenia: Authorities upbeat on 2024 growth prospects Armenia: ...

Moldova adopts pro-Western defense strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

On December 15 the Parliament voted to make the change. Moldova has officially been neutral until now. The former Soviet republic still does not seek to join NATO.  The Moldovan government aspires to join the EU. The Harvard-educated president is an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause, too. How...

November’s low CPI, surprising on the downside, supports monetary easing
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Dec 2023

1. November’s CPI came in below expectations as core inflation moderated significantly. 2. This renews expectations for a rate cut in January (in two weeks), assuming low shekel volatility. 3. The CA surplus and net FDI are expected to reach 5.5% GDP this year, but geopolitical/political u...

Polish blockade of Ukrainian trucks continues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

The Polish blockades of Ukrainian trucks continues. Polish truckers have been blocking Ukrainian trucks from entering or leaving Poland since November 6. Ukraine needs to export and import goods via Poland. The Polish authorities have done very little to stop this illegal blockade. Polish trucker...

Looking beyond the Chile’s constitutional moment
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

On Sunday, for the second time in as many years, Chileans have voted on a constitutional proposal designed by a democratically elected assembly. And for the second time, they have rejected it, with 55.8% against, versus 44.2% voting in favor. Whereas the 2022 proposal seemed to be far more progre...

Oil workers in Kazakhstan go on strike
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

On December 11 hundreds of people stopped work at West Oil Software in north-west Kazakhstan. West Oil Software provides logistics for oil and gas companies. Manghystau Region, where the strike is taking place, has been the scene of similar strikes over the past 20 years. The police have tried to...

November’s low CPI supports monetary loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

Inflation surprises on the downside Headline inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% last month. Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month due to a sharp moderation in housing rental (OER) prices to 3.6% y/y from 4.9%. The breakou...

Correction: The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

Inflation cooldown in 2024 rests on oil and politics
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

In November, thanks to near stability in the parallel exchange rate (up by only 1.3 percent), the pace of monthly inflation slowed to 3.5 percent from the 5.9-percent rate observed in October. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) intervened aggressively in the foreign exchange markets during the f...

Fiscal déjà vu
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Last November the government had to resort to a loan from Corporacion Financiera Nacional to obtain $392 million to pay public sector salaries. This is an operation that is not at all clear as it is registered as bonds in the Central Bank. Such a situation was normal during the 1990s, but it seem...

The little book of silver linings
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

Since the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, there has been visible improvement in policies, which led to tangible gains, more so than we had expected. Among others, the CBRT reserves have improved, as the so-called “KKM” accounts have declined notably; the budget deficit is set to finish the y...

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