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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Health care heads for Never Never Land
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response
The government’s healthcare reform proposal has survived its first crucial test in Congress: it was finally approved by the House on December 5th. Now it will be reviewed by the Senate, where harder discussions will take place in March. Though this is a positive for the government, a formal step ...
The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023
The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...
Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.
Lula’s veto of the payroll tax relief was overturned, the ICMS MP should be approved by the end of next week, and next week is the final week of activity before Congress recesses
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2023
President Lula's veto of the bill dealing with payroll tax relief was overturned. The votes, both in the House and the Senate, were significant. After intense negotiations, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), postponed the analysis of ICMS subsidies provisional measure (MP 1185/23) a...
GULF WEEKLY: COP28 targets transition from fossil fuels, US vetoes UAE’s ceasefire resolution, Dubai launches new sovereign fund
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Dec 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The final COP28 text included an historic, albeit qualified, call to transition from fossil fuels. * Oil is headed for its first price increase in two months, on a dovish Fed and weaker dollar. * Biden called Israel’s bom...
Rate cut in January appears realistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023
Inflation in November surprises on the downside The CPI in November declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% y/y, Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month. The downside surprises came from the “travel abroad” item which decline by 5.7% (we ...
Topic of the week: Election carousel
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Dec 2023
The world may be justifiably focused on the elections in the US and Russia next year, but 2024 is now shaping up to be a hot election year for the South Caucasus, as well. While the parliamentary elections in Georgia were in any case scheduled to take place in the fall, President Aliyev has decid...
EU opens membership talks with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023
On December 14, to the surprise of some, the European Council decided that the process will begin for Ukraine and Moldova. Many had anticipated that Hungary would veto this. Perhaps the EU made the decision to buoy up Ukrainian morale as Western aid is diminishing. Zelensky hailed the news as a ...
Putin's live press conference
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023
On December 14 he held his annual press conference cum phone-in. In theory, members of the public call in and they are randomly selected to speak to the president live on air. The 2023 edition was not as masterful as those of several years ago. Putin said that the war would go on until Russia ac...
EU opens membership talks with Ukraine, history is being made right now
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023
European leaders approved to open EU membership talks with Ukraine on December 14th, marking another historic day for the nation. This decision signifies that Ukraine's integration into the EU is not just a dream held by a few but is actively supported by the political leaders of EU member states...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023
Nov 29 KazTransOil: The national pipeline company estimated that in November, oil exports to Germany were on track to grow by 54% compared to the initial plan and reach 150K tons KazTransOil: In 2024, the national pipeline company intends to triple the transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan (to 500...
Great relief - PM Orbán did not veto EU accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023 · 1 response
He did not vote for it either: he simply left the room before the vote, saying he did not want to take part in a wrong decision, but if the other 26 members wanted it to be so, he did not intend to hold them up on that road. A great relief indeed—life will be much easier for Ukraine, the EU, and ...
NBU predictably cuts prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%, future uncertain
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023
This time, the decision of the monetary authorities aligned with expectations. On December 14th, the NBU Board predictably reduced the prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%. Following this, the "working" rates were also cut by 1 ppt: the rate for overnight deposit certificates was lowered to 15%, three-mont...
Russian macro: Budget 2024—generous spending, revenue collection challenging but manageable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Dec 2023
The 11M23 federal budget execution statistics confirmed that revenue flow remained stable, and in 2023, as a whole, will exceed not only the initial formally approved budget but also the amended one used as a base for the 2024 budgetary planning (although they didn’t differ much). The government ...
The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidy may vote on Deputy Faria’s report, Congress will meet today to review presidential vetoes, and Flávio Dino’s appointment to the STF was approved yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2023
The Joint Committee on the ICMS subsidy may vote on Deputy Luiz Fernando Faria's (PSD-MG) report today. He made a series of changes to the text submitted by the government, to make the rules more lenient for companies. The National Congress will meet today to discuss presidential vetoes. One of t...