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Pessimistic Western views of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

Secret German government documents were leaked to the media on July 26. They make depressing reading from a Ukrainian perspective. They gloomily assess that the counter-offensive is making minimal progress but at a high cost and with little chance of a breakthrough. The German military believes t...

Uzbekistan: Central Bank leaves policy rate unchanged, keeps open prospects for rate cuts into year-end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent on Jul 27th. Policy rates have already been reduced and there will be more room for the central bank to cut further this year. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated ge...

Moldova expels 45 Russian diplomats and embassy staffers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2023

On July 26 Moldova made the announcement, saying it was due to unfriendly acts. They have been given until August 15 to leave, which is generous and suggest that they are not suspected of spying; seven days would be the usual time frame to depart under those circumstances. Notably it did not say ...

Does Colombia need to be a superpower in anything?
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Jul 2023

Economic downturn has implications for the health of supervised credit institutions. Delinquency ratios are on the rise, already resulting in higher provisions, and likely to keep doing so. Profits of some lenders have been affected, especially those more focused on consumer lending; these losses...

The government issued a provisional measure on sports betting, it also submitted a bill on this topic to Congress, and the government continues to negotiate positions to increase support in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2023

Yesterday, the government published a provisional measure (MP) that regulates sports betting. Companies will have a tax of 18% on revenues, and there will be a 30% income tax charge on premiums that are above the exemption range (R$ 2,112 in 2023). The government also sent a bill to Congress on t...

Russia raises draft age limit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2023

On July 25 the State Duma passed the law. It also forbids draftees from going abroad. Previously males aged 18-27 were obliged to do a year of military service. Now this upper age has been raised to 30. There has been talk of raising the lower age to 21. The co-author of the bill said that the dr...

Azerbaijan: Central bank offers no surprises, keeps policy rate constant, but modifies message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jul 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept the policy rate constant at 9.0 percent on Jul 26th. There was little uncertainty about this decision given the broader message that the central bank has been sending to markets in recent months. While it had signaled the end of the rate-hiking cycle already at...

Building plans amid the fog of war
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Jul 2023

The counteroffensive did not yield significant gains in terrain for two months, sparking discussions about the operation's lackluster progress. However, measuring the progress of the counteroffensive solely in terms of square kilometers of liberated land is not the right approach. The Russians ha...

No surprise from the Monetary Council today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

Fully in line with analysts' widespread expectation, the Council decided to reduce the O/N deposit rate by 100 bps, to 15% today. Simultaneously, the repo rate was cut to 17.5%. The base rate remained unchanged at 13%. By meeting the unanimous analyst expectation, the Council actually met two of ...

Discussions on Tax Reform continue, Lira called for support for Administrative Reform, and Haddad confirmed that the government is looking into ending the Interest on Own Capital (JCP)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2023

Despite the congressional recess, the discussions on Tax Reform continue behind the scenes. Yesterday, at the Business Leadership Group (Lide) event in São Paulo, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that he plans to discuss the complementary bills provided for by the Tax Reform Constitu...

Armenia: June GDP data consistent with our upgraded 9.0 percent GDP forecast for the year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

The June short-term economic indicator has lost some vigor. The June short-term economic indicator, released by the Statistical Office today, grew by 6.8 percent YoY (Graph 1). This is sizably lower than its May read of 13.7 percent YoY, although the 2Q23 GDP print, calculated as the average of t...

Economics: Private consumption of services and imports is high as domestic goods continue to take a beating from forex effect
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jul 2023

Last week Inegi released its preliminary private consumption index (IOCP) for May and June and its retail and wholesale sales indexes for May, while the national retail industry association Antad published its store sales results for June the previous week. Those reports show that private consump...

Special Brief: Notes from NYC visits
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

Introduction and Summary The politics author (from now on I) has spent last week in NYC, visiting members of our GSP audience in the company of my NY office colleagues. In three days, we visited 10 institutions, speaking to another 12 in a luncheon hosted by Standard Chartered Bank, for which I’m...

Azerbaijan: June macro data confirms lackluster economic performance
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

The set of key macroeconomic indicators released by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan in June confirms disappointing economic performance so far in the year. Preliminary data just released by the central bank indicates that 1H23 GDP barely eked out a positive growth of 0.5 percent YoY Ytd, down from...

Georgia: Remittances on a steady downpath
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

In June, net monetary inflows inched down to US$324mn. This is slightly down on the US$357mn print in May, but significantly off the peak of US$500mn peak recorded in Dec 2022 (Graph 1). At the same time, net monetary inflows continue to run at levels that are about twice the pre-2022 pace. Graph...

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