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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023
When all the empirical evidence indicates that inflation expectations are anchored to the target, the Central Bank will begin a monetary easing cycle. Our objective in this report is not to examine when this cycle will start, but rather what the terminal interest rate will likely be. According to...
Kazakhstan macro: mixed 5M23 results amid puzzling statistics
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2023
Given that in recent years, the country’s economy has faced several shocks including the pandemic, protests in early 2022, and Russia’s special military operation, economic trends in Kazakhstan have turned very uneven, being influenced by various base effects. One can also add disputes with Russi...
Slide presentation - Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2023
Get insight into the the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region with the presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict".
Low CPI and strong shekel likely to support rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jun 2023
1. Inflation surprised on the downside in May, but service prices continue to accelerate. 2. The labor market remained tight in May, with unemployment holding steady at 3.6%. 3. Macro fundamentals remain shekel supportive although recently political uncertainty has been the main driver. ...
Russian war deaths over 25,000 according to study
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023
On June 16 the BBC and a Russian media group called "Mediazona" published a report. They based it on media reports, social messaging posts, graves and names on memorials. The 25,000 figure includes those fighting for Wagner Group. Some Wagner fighters are non-Russians. In September 2022 Russia s...
Sterilisation rate expected to fall by 100 bps to 16% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2023
The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is scheduled for tomorrow. This time around, the Council is also set to discuss the Q2 inflation report. Analysts unanimously expect another 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate. For D...
Labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jun 2023
The labor market remained tight in May and at full employment. Unemployment remained stable at 3.6% (seasonally adjusted data) while the rate of participation in the labor market improved slightly to 64.2% from 64.1%. More people are looking for work than previously and finding employment (theref...
Time to get down to business
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2023
After a week spent puking his lungs out in violent spasms of pneumonia, the politics author returns to his job, predicting President Erdogan will approve Sweden’s accession to NATO before or during the Vilnius Summit. He may need some encouraging words from Biden though, re. the F-16 order, to ta...
Low CPI and strong shekel likely to support rate stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023
Inflation in May surprises on the downside Core inflation slows to 4.9% y/y from 5.3% in April. Much of the surprise was due to lower-than-expected seasonal impact. Prices of goods have moderated, while prices of services (including rental prices) have accelerated. We expect inflation to reach 2....
Ramaphosa in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023
On June 17 the President of South Africa met Putin. President Ramaphosa was accompanied by the presidents of the Comoros Islands, Zambia and Senegal. Ramaphosa said that the war should end as soon as possible. Ramaphosa's 10-point peace proposal was said by Moscow to be difficult to implement. Ta...
Tight security and narrow domestic focus at SPIEF
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023
On June 14 the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF) opened. The forum was instituted in 1998. The 2023 edition was the least impressive yet. Gone are the days when major world leaders attended. It was known as Russia's Davos. Putin addressed the forum. Mobile phones were blocked before his s...
African leaders visit Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023
On June 16 African leaders arrived as a part of a mission to negotiate peace. They are due to travel to Russia. The delegates are the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros Islands. When they arrived in Kyiv a barrage of missiles hit the city. Ukraine condemned the missile at...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Chinese investments, Kuwait reform roadmap, IAE highlights Oman’s hydrogen potential
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jun 2023
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly touched $71, its lowest since 2021, on Monday but has since rebounded to $76. * OPEC and IEA data showed that May voluntary production cuts were implemented. * Moody’s retained a positive outlook on the Saudi ...
The STF will begin trial on the national nursing salary floor, the Senate should vote on the new fiscal framework next week, and the TSE may decide on former President Bolsonaro’s ineligibility case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2023
Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will adjudicate in the virtual plenary the case that deals with the nursing salary floor. The trial runs until June 23. In the Senate, it is worth highlighting the progress on the vote on the new fiscal framework. Yesterday, rapporteur Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) sai...
Webinar replay: Caucasus and Central Asia - Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jun 2023
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ivan Tchakarov discussing the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region. How do the economies of the key countries in the region including Armenia, Azerbaijan, ...