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Economics: New signs of strain on public sector finance
MEXICO · Report · 23 May 2023

The Ministry of Finance’s first quarter report on public sector finances delivered plenty of evidence confirming our fears over the past year of deterioration, with increasingly limited margins' continuing to gradually become more apparent. January-March saw a significant drop in revenues that o...

Alleged Ukrainians attack into Russia, Ukraine denies involvement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2023 · 1 response

On May 22 fighters crossed from Ukraine into Russia. A group called Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) claims to have carried out the attack. They are anti-Putin Russians who are fighting on Ukraine's side. Ukraine denies attacking inside Russia. FRL attacked an FSB (domestic intelligence) and an Int...

Politics: Some scenarios of the presidential succession given recent developments
MEXICO · Report · 22 May 2023

Morena’s presidential nominee is supposed to be chosen based on one or more public opinion polls to ascertain which one is most popular with voters, but it is commonly assumed President López Obrador will pick the candidate, reviving one of the hoariest traditions of single-party rule in twentiet...

Effects of the Fiscal-Monetary Conflict
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2023

Whether measured by the one-year ex-ante real interest rate or by our financial conditions index, monetary policy is more restrictive than during the recession of 2014-16. Nevertheless, the economic activity data for the first quarter of 2023 show that the economy, at least until then, was recove...

Obstacles do not affect Lula's popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2023

The House is expected to complete the vote on the fiscal framework this week. Once approved, the text will go to the Senate. The installation of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) on the January 8 attacks is scheduled for Thursday, May 25. Also on Thursday, the government should launch ...

Russian roulette once again
ECUADOR · Report · 22 May 2023 · 2 responses

For many, the “cross-death” option became necessary after months of political battle between the executive and legislative branches and allows Ecuadorians to choose their political destiny once again. But somehow, for those who a few weeks ago were proposing it in Congress, it is an illegal dicta...

Rates up 0.25% to 4.75%
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2023

Policy rates increased today by 0.25% to 4.75%, in line with consensus. Inflation remains high and broad-based, core inflation has accelerated, but the BoI is looking at the annual rate of inflation in the past 6 months and 3 months and notes moderation (3.9% rate for the last three months, and d...

The House should vote on Deputy Cajado’s report on the new fiscal framework, the Senate is expected to vote on provisional measures this week, and the CPIs are expected to define their work schedules
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2023

The House will likely vote on Deputy Claudio Cajado's (PP-BA) report on Tuesday, May 23, or Wednesday, May 24. To be approved, the text needs the support of at least 257 deputies. Last week, the urgent status of the bill was approved by 367 votes in favor and 102 against. The Senate will vote on ...

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 22 May 2023

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, with 4.75% likely to be the terminal rate. 2. Tightening will be supported by higher core inflation, a tight labor market and fairly steady growth (although with growth pessimism). 3. A sharper hike of 0.5% cannot be ruled out, but the MPC will most ...

Russia claims to have taken Bakhmut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2023

On May 20 the head of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin said his fighters have control of the city. The Russian Army confirmed this. They have been fighting there since August 2022. Wagner Group said they had stopped taking prisoners. Wagner said it would hand the city over to the Russian Army on Ma...

We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, but a 0.5% hike cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 May 2023

We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today, but cannot rule out 0.5% Nevertheless, the MPC will most likely also discuss a sharper hike of 0.5% (most likely a minority view). Most macro factors support further tightening: May’s upward inflation surprise, acceleration in core inflation, tight labor mark...

Down the rabbit hole
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2023 · 1 response

With a week left to the critical run-off between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, the politics section is rather brief, focusing on two issues. First the politics author explains why his predictions didn’t pan out. It turns out that there was a groundswell of nationalism, while IYIP and CHP voters didn’...

China announces plan to develop Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2023

On May 19 President Xi said that China will help Central Asia with infrastructure, security and defense. He said he wants to improve trade. Xi was speaking at a summit for China and Central Asian countries. Xi said it would be a gain for all the countries involved. Central Asia is Kazakhstan, Kyr...

Russia losing scientists
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2023

On May 18 the vice-president of the Russian Academy of Sciences said that 50,000 scientists have left the country since 2018. He said that the government's policy of technological sovereignty is unachievable while the country is hemorrhaging highly educated scientists. He said that funding for re...

G7 Summit: Zelensky attends and more sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2023

On May 19 the Group of the seven most industrialized economies met in Japan. The sanctions will hit Russian diamonds. Russia sells at least USD 4 billion in diamonds each year.  The G7 will probably not ban the purchase of all Russian diamonds. Belgium is a major buyer, with Antwerp's being one o...

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