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Shekel weakness likely to continue without a reasonable compromise regarding the judicial measures
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Feb 2023

Israeli macro highlights 27/2/23 The main issue impacting markets recently has been the judicial measures pushing forward in the Israeli Knesset. Part of these reforms were voted upon last week (1st vote out of three) and further progress on this legislation is expected this week. So far, no real...

Putin says that NATO is participating in the conflict
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2023

On February 23 the Russian President spoke on TV and said that NATO countries have entered the conflict inasmuch as they have provided USD 10s of billions of arms to Ukraine. He accused NATO of plotting to split Russia up into several different countries. He accused them of abetting Ukrainian war...

The only clarity is there is no clarity
TURKEY · Report · 26 Feb 2023 · 1 response

The earthquake triggered a whole new conversation in politics and created a new political landscape, on which the politics author takes up two issues. The first is the timing of the elections. A majority of news articles now suggest that President Erdogan doesn’t intend to delay elections beyond ...

China calls for peace talks over Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2023

On February 24 China urged Ukraine and Russia to negotiate an end to the war. NATO countries dismissed this and said that China is too sympathetic to Russia. China published a 12-point plan. The Chinese statement also said that it is totally against the use of nuclear arms. China denies American ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman hosts Assad and permits Israeli overflights, Qatar moots bond issuance, GCC deals in Egypt stall
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman opened its airspace to Israel, and the UAE withdrew a UN resolution criticizing settlements. * Assad visited Oman, and Saudi Arabia is re-evaluating its stance on isolating Syria. * PIF’s acquisition of Egypt’s Unite...

Chile signs on to TPP11
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2023

In the 1990s and 2000s, signing free trade agreements became almost routine for Chile. But when Chile’s adhesion to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, or TPP11) finally became official this week, it was a big deal. One of the slogans of Chile’s 2019 ...

Lula will meet with Jean Paul Prates today, the president of the PT criticized the Central Bank again, and next week the chairs of the permanent committees of Congress should be finalized
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2023 · 1 response

President Lula’s meeting with Petrobras President Jean Paul Prates was postponed from yesterday to today. One of the topics is the PIS and Cofins tax exemption on gasoline, which ends on February 28. Yesterday, PT President Deputy Gleisi Hoffmann (PR) once again criticized the Central Bank on Twi...

The first year of the war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2023

A year ago, we woke up to a new reality. It was a day when all Ukrainians had to start anew, reevaluating themselves and their surroundings. However, it was also a day that put everything in its place. All the previously complex issues became simple and clear with just one click. The Russian lead...

Energy import prices look much lower than expected for now
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Feb 2023

In our latest forecast, released last month, we predicted rising energy import prices, as the weather is getting back to its normal seasonal track after the unusual warm weather recorded this winter. Indeed, winter is approaching its end, and the weather is not that exceptionally warm anymore in ...

External Accounts – The Bright Spot of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Feb 2023

The environment is fraught with uncertainties, but in these turbulent waters, the outlook for the external account remains favorable. Although in 2022 the country’s balance of payments was in the red by US$ 7.3 billion (versus a surplus of US$ 14 billion in 2021), the trade balance was positive a...

The cost of the war to Russia one year on
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

In February 2022 about 190,000 Russians invaded Ukraine. Later mobilizations and Wagner fighters often recruited from prisons boosted these numbers. Western officials have estimated 180,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian military casualties. Russia gave its death toll as 6,000 in September 2022. O...

MPC responds to the EQ, says it's one-off
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2023

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 8.5%, exercising somewhat of a restraint, compared with expectations of 100, in some cases 200 bps reduction -- and our admittedly somewhat loosely formulated, “we would not be surprised if the Bank reduced the policy rate by another 100 bps or so”. ...

Lula will meet with Jean Paul Prates today, the possibility of updating the Mining Code is causing noise in the market, and Lula reacted well to the heavy rains in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2023

On Tuesday, February 28, the PIS and Cofins tax exemptions on gasoline will end. This issue will be discussed in today's meeting. The probability is that the exemption will not be extended. The PIS and Cofins tax exemption on diesel and cooking gas, on the other hand, will run until the end of th...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

Feb 10 NBK: Easing monetary policy in Kazakhstan in the current conditions is impractical said NBK Chairman Mr. Pirmatov Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ): The company and the Arab Abu Dhabi Ports Group discussed the creation of trade hubs in the Kazakh cities of Astana, Alma-Ata and Aktobe Feb 13 KMG...

Industrial output was down y-o-y in January, but less so than in 4Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that in January, industrial output contracted by 2.4% y-o-y as the mining segment fell by 4.3% and the manufacturing by 3.0% (also y-o-y). According to Rosstat's estimates, seasonally adjusted industrial output in January decreased by 0.6% m-o-m (though, one can raise questions a...

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