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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jul 2022

As the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth month, there are still no signs of a negotiated solution. Interests and relations of dependence consolidated in recent decades are feeding the conflict, provoking huge humanitarian and economic damages, besides the ever-present ri...

Policy rates increase by 0.5% with a hawkish tone
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Jul 2022

1. Policy rates increased by 0.5% to 1.25% yesterday on accelerating inflation, robust growth, and a tight labor market. 2. The BoI expects inflation to reach 3.3% one year ahead and rates at 2.75% by Q2 2023. 3. Real private consumption growth appears fairly robust in recent months. Unemployme...

Inflation breached 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2022

June inflation quickened to 6.1%, equivalent to a month-on-month (mom) increase of 0.9%. Food inflation went up by 1.1% mom, led by three product groups with mom inflation exceeding 2%: meat products, oils and fats and sugar, while non-food items rose 0.8% mom, traced notably to transport-related...

Three bits of data, ranging from mixed to bad
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2022

The following note is about new fiscal, merchandise trade and average exchange rate data. All of this appears important background information now, as EURHUF has just moved to 405, a new all-time record, despite the recent MNB action. 1. General government deficit for Q1: 4.8% of GDP, down from 6...

Riots in Uzbekistan leave at least 18 dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2022 · 1 response

On July 4 the government announced the death toll in the Karakalpakstan Region. The government proposed a constitutional amendment which would have removed the region's right to declare independence.  The unrest is the most serious outbreak of unrest since Mirziyoyev became president in 2016. Dis...

A hawkish message from the BoI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jul 2022

Rates up 0.5%, with a clear hawkish tone Today’s rate hike of 0.5% to 1.25% came as no surprise, but the monetary statement and Governor Yaron’s press conference was clearly hawkish. The MPC sees robust growth (“activity at a high level”), a tight labor market (“at full employment environment”), ...

Russia takes Lysychansk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2022

On July 3 Ukraine confirmed that it had withdrawn from the eastern city. This is the first city that Russia has taken faster than Western pundits predicted. The city is on the west bank of Severidonetski River and on high ground. It had been thought that Ukraine could hold it for weeks as they di...

Inflation approaches 80%
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jul 2022

Consumer prices rose by 5%, m/m, in June, broadly in line with the market consensus, with the 12-month rate thus rising further to 78.6% from 73.5% in May -- the highest level since September 1998. Producer prices also rose sharply by 6.8% in the month, taking the 12-month PPI-rate to 138.3% from...

Uzbekistan's proposed constitutional changes spark unrest
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2022

On July 3 the president suddenly scrapped a plan to take away Karakalpakstan's right to secede. The autonomous republic is home to an indigenous minority. They only became part of Uzbekistan in 1936. There were large-scale protests forcing the move. Protestors tried to occupy public buildings.  O...

Economic Minister Martín Guzman´s resignation forces Alberto Fernandez's hand
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 04 Jul 2022

Saturday’s resignation of Economic Minister Martín Guzman (MG), which he made public through his personal Twitter account, rather than the official communication channels, took the political spectrum by surprise. Although since last years mid-term elections, and in particular since the IMF agreem...

Calmer politics, slower economy
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2022

President Erdogan confused everyone with his performance during and after the NATO Summit. He first conceded to Swedish and Finnish accession in return for vague promises of help with Turkey’s war against terror, topped by support from the Biden administration for the delayed F-16 sale. He later ...

0.5% hike expected today; markets will follow the BoI macro forecast closely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jul 2022

Macro factors support more aggressive tightening: Core inflation accelerated to 3.65% y/y in May from 3.4%. Inflation expectations one year ahead in the bond market are over 4%. Economic growth appears fairly steady, with private consumption expanding (credit card purchases up 6% saar in March-Ma...

Ukraine bombs Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2022

On July 3 explosions in Belgorod killed 3 people. 50 buildings were destroyed or damage. The city is 40 km from Ukraine. Ukraine has not claimed or denied being behind the attack. Russia claimed to have shot down 2 Ukrainian drones. Lysyschansk, Ukraine remains the vortex of the war. Russian forc...

Wall on Belarus-Polish Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2022

On July 1 Poland announced it had completed the steel wall. The aim of the wall is to stop illegal immigrant crossing into Poland and therefore the EU. Belarus previously sent illegal immigrants to EU countries to punish them for sanctions. Th 186 km border is tense. Belarus is an ally of Poland....

Missile strike kills 21 civilians in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2022

On July 1 a missile hit an apartment block in Odessa Region. Russia denied being behind the attack. The missiles were launched from planes flying over the Black Sea.  Germany condemned the attacks as cruel. Zelensky said that the EU should admit Ukraine to full membership quickly. North Macedonia...

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