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Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets The Bank of Israel decided to hike by 0.25% to 0.35% today, while markets (and myself) had expected a hike of 0.15% to 0.25%, although I saw a 35% probability of a 0.40% hike to 0.5%. The more hawkish bias is due to a combination of accelerating inflation ...

The Holy Week holiday reduces activities in the legislature, public servants continue to strike, and the União Brasil may form an alliance with other third way parties and launch a single presidential candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The opposition had obtained the minimum 27 signatures necessary to create a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate to investigate allegations of corruption in the Ministry of Education. However, government negotiations managed to withdraw some signatures to reduce the negative eff...

The state of the recovery: firms faring better than households
INDIA · Report · 11 Apr 2022

There is a divergence in the picture of the economy as seen in data for large firms vs. the data for households. The large firms are faring well. For the first time since 2013, expansion of net sales and operating profit is seen, in real terms, in the aggregate values for non-financial non-oi...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Apr 2022

1. Rates are expected to move higher today; the bond market will react to the BoI policy rate forecast and the Governor’s press conference. 2. The cumulative fiscal deficit declined to 1.4% GDP in March; we expect bond issuance to decline further. 3. The coalition has weakened, maki...

The 47th day of war: the big battle over Donbas "slips"
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

We are living in anticipation of the decisive battle over Donbas. The Russians totally withdrew from the North and the North-East. Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy are returning to peaceful life, if this phrase is applicable in nowadays. At the same time Russians are accumulating forces in Donbas and in the...

The approval of the IMF program brought calm to the foreign exchange markets but accentuated tensions within the government
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

In the last week of January, before the announcement of an understanding between the staff of the IMF and the Ministry of Economy, the foreign exchange rate in the bond swap market (CCL) and the informal ¨blue¨ market fluctuated around 220 pesos per dollar. Now, two weeks after the final approval...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

We expect a rate hike today of 0.15% Due to robust growth and strong labor market, we cannot rule out a rate hike of 0.4% to a level of 0.5% (35% probability). All conditions have been met to commence a tightening cycle: recovery from the pandemic, rapid economic growth, strong labor market, infl...

Better abroad than at home
TURKEY · Report · 10 Apr 2022

Long discarded by the West as “no longer useful”, Ankara’s Bladerunner tactics in the East-West conflict arising from the Ukrainian War has earned President Erdogan a new look from Western governments. However, he is not ready to follow through with concessions on key disputes to turn diplomatic ...

Armenia and Azerbaijan close to a peace treaty after talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 9 peace talks between the two former Soviet republics took place in Brussels. The EU midwifed the talks. The leaders of both countries met and expressed optimism about the talks. They agreed to establish a joint commission to delineate the border.The talks took 4 hours, which is a good s...

Russia closes offices of human rights organizations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 8 Moscow said it was shutting the offices of the Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International. Both bodies have had operations in Russia since the early 1990s. Thirty organizations have been removed from the registry of international organizations in Russia owing to breaking the la...

Paying in rubles for energy imports from Russia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

PM Orbán has happened to say that Hungary could pay in rubles for its gas imports from Russia if necessary. He sees that as a technical affair, he said.EU Commission head vd Leyen reacted by saying that paying in rubles would clearly breach existing sanctions. So far, Hungary has complied with al...

EU sanctions Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 7 the EU voted to ban Russian coal and to forbid Russian ships to dock in EU ports. The sanctions package include a ban on selling certain high tech goods to Russia. Moreover, many Russian owned yachts have been seized. The assets of several Russian banks have been frozen. The EU has for...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P upgrades Oman, Yemen ceasefire begins, Kuwaiti government resigns, Abu Dhabi’s non-oil recovery lags peers
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil eased back to a still strong $100 after the IEA announced a strategic reserve release. * A two-month ceasefire began in Yemen, and the president delegated powers to a new presidential council. * Gulf states all abstain...

De-facto change in monetary policy stance
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The monetary policy statement though retained the accommodative stance but the wording was changed to: ...."remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth." There is a possibility that th...

Savings, investment and politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

Two years into the COVID pandemic, the Colombian economy has experienced roller-coaster swings the likes of which it has never witnessed before. The dramatic downturn of 2020, followed by a remarkable rebound in 2021, is already a well-known fact; we are also well aware of the stark deterioration...

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