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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP fell by more than expected in Q2, but our latest 2020 forecast is still standing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020

According to preliminary data, GDP fell by 13.5% yoy on sda basis in Q2. The MNB expected -7%, the Finance Ministry predicted -9.9%, the analyst consensus was -10.5 and -10.7% in two different polls, and our forecast, published in July, was -12%. A week ago, Eurostat estimated Euro Area Q2 GDP gr...

Putting the worst behind us
CHILE · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Recent economic data support the idea that economic shrinkage bottomed out in May, and there are reasons to believe that the recovery will accelerate in coming months. But room for optimism remains limited. In June, the 12-month variation of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity stayed negati...

Pazuello’s statements at Congressional public hearing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Today, Eduardo Pazuello, interim Minister of Health, participated in a public hearing of the Joint Committee that monitors government spending in combating the pandemic. Pazuello’s attendance was proposed by Senator Esperidião Amin (PP-SC). Pazuello said that information on the Russian COVID-1...

Protests threaten Belarussian president's hold on power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2020

On August 13 thousands of people mostly wearing white marched around Belarussian cities linking arms. The police are flummoxed about how to deal with these human chains. Several automotive factories have gone on strike against Lukashenka and police brutality. Hundreds of workers have held a vote ...

Russian angel investor arrested in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2020

On August 10 a well known IT investor Kirill Golub was arrested in Belarus as part of the roundup of anti-Lukashenka activists. He is a member of Changer International Business Club and the club announced his arrest. Golub is Russian but lives in Latvia. Over 6 000 people have been arrested. The ...

Debate over the spending ceiling divides the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The direction that the government will take after the pandemic is causing an intense internal debate. In the past few weeks, pressure has grown to increase the spending ceiling. Those advocating for this understand that resuming growth must come through an increase in public investment.

Federal budget deficit widened in July amid increased spending
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020

The Russian federal budget deficit widened in July so that the 7m20 tally reached R1.5 trln as in 1H20 it was slightly over R1.8 trln. Expenditures in July exceeded R2.0 trln while in 1H20 average monthly expenditures stood below R1.7 trln. As is happens regularly, the Finance Ministry releases p...

Presentation - Lira Volatility Redux: Could This Be the Final Straw?
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2020

Outline: How Did We Get Here? What Was Ankara Thinking? Why Now? What Has Been the Response So Far? Will It Be Enough? What’s Next? Why the “Final Straw” in the Title?

Ministry of Economy growing isolated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The resignations of the special secretaries of Privatization, Salim Mattar, and De-bureaucratization, Management and Digital Government, Paulo Uebel, had wide-ranging repercussions on the market.

Russia claims to have coronavirus vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020

On August 11 Putin announced that Russia has licensed a vaccine against COVID-19. He said that his daughter has taken it and experienced only slight side effects. Russia has the 4th highest number of coronavirus cases in the world. Foreign experts are skeptical that the vaccine is safe and reliab...

Poll shows drop in social isolation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2020

The amount of people going into work is growing, even after the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil reached 100,000 deaths and more than 3 million cases. According to the new PoderData poll, 50% of respondents said they have left home to work in the past few weeks. This is 5% higher than the amount...

“Moderate” GDP contraction in 2Q20 sets the potential for an upside revision of economic performance in 2020 as a whole
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020

Rosstat reported that in 2Q20 the Russian GDP was down by 8.5% y-o-y. It was a preliminary flash estimate, and no other details were provided. The figure is in line with GKEM Analytica’s view that in 2020 GDP may contract by around 4% and even less if some underestimated activities, such as onlin...

Recession continues to contain inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Aug 2020

July inflation was 18 percent month on month (our estimate), only slightly faster than June’s 16 percent, despite faster bolivar depreciation against the dollar (the dollar in bolivar terms rose by 29 percent, compared with 8 percent in June). That outcome suggests that the pass-through effect...

Solid balance of payments in 2020, additional support secured in 2021 by amended double taxation treaties
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020 · 1 response

As the Russian government continues fine-tuning of its taxation system, move to renegotiate with several countries agreements on avoidance of the double taxation looks natural and reasonable. Earlier the government decided to impose a 15% tax on interest on bank deposits (if total deposits of an ...

A forint-positive surprise in the July inflation data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020

The July data for headline CPI-inflation came out today as 1.1% mom, 3.8% yoy, the year-on-year rate rising sharply from 2.9% in the previous month. Market forecasters were generally surprised, as the analyst consensus was at 3.2-3.3% yoy (our forecast was 3.3% yoy).The monthly rise of consumer p...

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