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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: The trend toward reduced hiring extends through July as wages start to reflect the pressure
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2024

Labor market indicators for the second quarter and July of this year show a slowdown in employment that largely mirrors how the various segments of the economy are performing. The deceleration is mainly to be found in the primary and manufacturing sectors but has also extended to services, the we...

The succession in the House narrows down and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2024

A quiet week in the Legislature. The Senate's Economic Affairs Committee will hold public hearings to discuss Tax Reform. In the economic sphere, the highlight is the Central Bank's meeting to decide on the basic interest rate. On Friday, the government will release the revenue and expenditure re...

In the Heat of the Night
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 16 Sep 2024 · 1 response

Output should grow 3% in 2024, driven by domestic demand, while net imports continue to expand to accommodate the gap relative to GDP. In 2025, activity should slow down to 2%, close to its potential pace. Thus, the labor market will remain tight, with unemployment continuing to decline, while th...

Politics: Dirty tricks paved the way for passage of the judicial reform, but major fights remain, with a constitutional crisis possible
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2024

President López Obrador’s much heralded Judicial Reform was approved in the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate, and, at last count, by 23 of the country’s 32 states, clearing the way for its promulgation, which was signed on September 15 and published in the Official Gazette. But the proposal provok...

Budget 2025: back to harsh war reality
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2024

On September 13th, the Cabinet submitted the draft spending plan for 2025 to parliament. The most notable aspect of the proposed budget is the allocation of UAH 2.2 trillion (nearly $53.8 billion at the current exchange rate) or 56% of central budget spending for defense, which is significantly h...

A slower week in Congress, the Copom will meet to decide on the basic interest rate, and the STF may decide on the Reintegra credits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2024

This will be a slower week in the Legislature. Tomorrow, September 17, the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will hold a public hearing on the impact of the Tax Reform on Special Customs Regimes, Export Processing Zones (ZPEs), and the Capital Goods Regime. This week, the Central Bank's M...

Inflation surprises sharply on the upside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Sep 2024

1. Inflation in August (0.9% m/m) surprised sharply on the upside due to a spike in fresh produce and airfares. 2. Our base call remains for rate stability on October 9th, but shekel weakness could pose a dilemma for the MPC. 3. Data for Q3 has been encouraging, especially exports, private ...

The challenges of the pension system and Mulino's path to reform
PANAMA · Report · 16 Sep 2024

President Mulino made several important announcements on Thursday, September 12, focusing on the path of the pension reform and placing strong emphasis on measures to improve the healthcare system, which could lead to political gains. On the pension system, Mulino confirmed a dialogue table start...

Rates to remain on hold for quite some time as inflation accelerates; a rate hike cannot be ruled out if the shekel weakens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2024

Geopolitics: Cease-fire negotiations with Hamas appear to have stalled. Israel continues to target specific areas in Gaza (but with a lower level of intensity) and the level of hostilities (number of missile barrages) in the North appear to have escalated. A missile from Yemen was intercepted 35 ...

Not much new to report
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2024

Frankly, readers may dispense with the domestic policy essays of the politics author, where he repeats his well-known views on late-2025 elections and the potential banning of CHP Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. In diplomatic matters, the cozying relationship between the US and Greek Cyprio...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC cuts oil demand forecast, Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Oman’s OQ to IPO upstream subsidiary, Bahrain sells pipeline stake
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA cut oil demand forecasts, and Brent briefly fell below $70 for the first time since 2021. * The GCC held dialogues with China and India and began free trade talks with Indonesia. * Saudi non-oil Q2 GDP grew a...

Change of mind
CHILE · Report · 13 Sep 2024

The significant expansion of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) in July should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent data show increased volatility. These wide swings were primarily driven by successive one-off events. Everything points to a likely reversion in the IMACEC in coming m...

Steady economic performance in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator that captures economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, communications, trade, and transportation combined with warehousing grew by 4.4% y-o-y in 8M24 (up from 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24). Construction was the fastes...

The House approved the payroll tax relief bill yesterday, the Senate continues to discuss Tax Reform, and the Copom is expected to decide on the basic interest rate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2024

Yesterday, the House concluded the approval of the bill proposing a three-year transition for the end of payroll tax exemptions for 17 economic sectors and for the full INSS (Brazilian Social Security) rate to be charged in municipalities with up to 156,000 inhabitants. In the Senate, the Economi...

August CPI - The half-full/half-empty glass
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

August National CPI inflation came in at 4.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive month with an inflation rate of close to 4%. While those monthly rates are the lowest since 2021, their result can still be read as a half-full/half-empty glass.Graph 1 On the positive side, It must be remembered th...

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